INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Derek Ortt]

it happens all of the time and why most here should NOT be even loking at ATCF.

It was desgined so the mets can have the data, not weather enthusiasts. Mods, please delete the official forecast as that should not have been released

[chadtm80]

What forecast?

[vaffie]

Anyone have any guesses on what they think recon will find?

My guess is that they will find an elongated but closed low from 22.8, 90 to 24.5, 89, with pressures anywhere from 1003 to 1005 mb, and surface winds of 35 knots. My bet is that a special advisory will go out at 2 pm for a tropical depression or storm.

[Aric Dunn]

it happens all of the time and why most here should NOT be even loking at ATCF.

It was desgined so the mets can have the data, not weather enthusiasts. Mods, please delete the official forecast as that should not have been released

WHAT!! thats not right

[cpdaman]

let's see Air force met said center was being "dragged" toward convection and that it was also elongated ssw/nne so i bet at least part is under the deep convection.

[Stormcenter]

What forecast?

Yeah what forecast?

[jwayne]

What forecast?

Yeah what forecast?

I assume he's referencing top of page 30

[lrak]

AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 0, 225N, 898W, 25
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 12, 235N, 920W, 30
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 24, 249N, 943W, 35
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 36, 262N, 971W, 40
AL, 91, 2007081412, 03, OFCL, 48, 269N, 991W, 25

This is odd. The NHC has started issuing official track and intensity forecasts in their ATCF file. I don't know if this is a flub or whether they are categorical on development, but this is the first time I've seen this happen. I'm assuming it's a mistake for now.

I think this one.

[Sanibel]

A WEAK SURFACE LOW IS CENTERED IN THE GULF RIGHT AROUND 22.8N AND 90.0W

Bingo

[Tireman4]

I think he is too. Well I am just a historian, so I can not make heads or tails of it. I leave that to the experts.

[JtSmarts]

Anyone have any guesses on what they think recon will find?

My guess is that they will find an elongated but closed low from 22.8, 90 to 24.5, 89, with pressures anywhere from 1003 to 1005 mb, and surface winds of 35 knots. My bet is that a special advisory will go out at 2 pm for a tropical depression or storm.

I am thinking along the same lines. I think 91 could have a good chance to become a tropical storm pretty soon after becoming a td if it doesn't skip td designation altogether.

[Extremeweatherguy]

something doesn't look right about that forecast though. It is pretty strange.

[Stormcenter]

Not only is 91L organizing but it is also expanding in size.
You know I wouldn't just assume this is going to possibly
be "just" a cat.1 or even 2 storm. It still has a lot of water
to travel over. Just my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[cpdaman]

ok forget that lil forecast

we and "they" will know a lot more when recon fly's in

btw When will it reach the storm estimated time? ( i know it was supposed to leave at 1pm)

[Javlin]

Not only is 91L organizing but it is also expanding in size.
You know I wouldn't just assume this is going to possibly
be "just" a cat.1 or even 2 storm. It still has a lot of water
to travel over. Just my 2 cents.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

You notice the blob coming from the S over the Yuc,if it should hold together just alibiet all the more moisture and energy.Well be interesting to here what recon finds.

[vaffie]

Plane is 180 miles south of New Orleans now.

[HURAKAN]

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

A 1007 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 23N90W...APPROXIMATELY 80 NM
NORTH OF THE YUCATAN PENINSULA. THE ASSOCIATED TROPICAL WAVE IS
SOUTH OF 19N ALONG 90W/91W. THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PRODUCE
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS WITH CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL GULF...S OF 28N
BETWEEN 85W-92W. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED THIS
MORNING AND TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMATION IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WNW NEAR 10-15 KT. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM. A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS
SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS AFTERNOON.

[vaffie]

20-25 minutes before recon data starts becoming really interesting.

[Valkhorn]

Look on the bright side - you got a new roof and a new car and you only had to pay 50% more for homeowner's insurance. It's going to take Texas joining us in LA/MS/AL/FL paying 2-3 times what you are used to paying for the government to really pay attention to our insurance plight. Mississippi Congressman Gene Taylor had introduced a bill to add wind and hail (being dropped in most homeowner's polices which are quickly becoming "fire insurance" IMHO) to the National Flood Insurance Program. I'm not sure what the status of that bill is, but the Federal Government is going to have to ease the burden on us if it wants us to be homeowners. There are a few different ways they could work it, but they gotta do something.

Not to be rude but the government can't do that much to bail everyone out. Insurance companies are companies, not charities. If you ever buy a home anywhere you simply MUST be aware of the risks before asking the insurance company to insure you or to get quotes. If I lived below 25 feet in elevation less than 3 miles from the gulf of mexico I would get flood insurance there and if the premiums were too high I'd live further inland. I mean some of the people that lived down on the coast not having flood insurance is just insane to me. How could you not at least look into it?

As to the premiums, the premiums are going to go up because you're living in a higher risk area. You simply can't put a home in a high risk area and expect it to be there forever.

As far as a possible Erin goes, I'm ready for this season and I'm prepared for anything. I just hope it brings some rain to take care of the 100 degree heat we've been having here.

[vaffie]

Plane descending, down to 9000 feet. Located at 25.85N 90.02W. Extrapolated surface pressures at 1011-1013. Will reach the convective blob in 10 minutes.