Hey GOMERS dont let your guard down by any means

[cycloneye]

The forecasts for this season are calling for less activity in the GOM as some posters here haved aluded to in other threads but I am posting this thread to let all the gomers know that even if activity seems to be less this season dont let your guard down because it only takes one system to damp the whole season for you :o so be prepared even if the GOM will not be a prime area this season.

[wx247]

That is an extremely important point Luis. The quantity isn't as important as the intensity. Everyone, everywhere in harm's way should always be prepared.

[Guest]

All it takes is one category 4 or 5 storm. If I remember last year there was talk about the GOM being less active. Its the throw of the dice in where storms are going.....thats why EVERYONE has to be prepared. All it takes is ONE storm/hurricane to become a disaster. So when people proclaim one area is less likely to get storms then another - I myself ignore their self-proclaimations. There is too much apathy out in the general public and to keep proclaiming one area is going to see less activity could have disastrous results. If anyone of us knew where all the storms would be going - we would be millionaires.

Just my two cents.

Patricia

[Steve]

I agree ticka. No one knows with any certainty what's going to happen. And at this early part of the season, it's all speculation. I said in another thread that I liked the Indy team's (as posted) research into seasons after active Gulf years, but the climatology is too recent to know if the numbers are conforming to a statistical rule or if it's just coincidence during the last several decades.

No guard is being let down here, but I'd be even a bit more wary if I lived east of the LA/MS line.

Steve

[Anonymous]

I agree ticka. No one knows with any certainty what's going to happen. And at this early part of the season, it's all speculation. I said in another thread that I liked the Indy team's (as posted) research into seasons after active Gulf years, but the climatology is too recent to know if the numbers are conforming to a statistical rule or if it's just coincidence during the last several decades.

Thanks Steve. Ummm... Indy team? lol

Ahem, on a serious note you are correct about the climatology. Even though climatologically the Gulf should be quiet this season, there are no promises that it will verify. Climatology does not always win (Ana and TD2 reminded us that). With that being said, I'm sticking to my word of a less active Gulf year, since the SLPAs are expected to be slightly above average. Also I might add that years with easterly QBO may inhibit Gulf activity to some extent as well, though TWW and I are still doing research on this, and haven't yet confirmed the correlation.

Oh, and even if we saw just one Gulf storm this season, that one storm could very well be a major hurricane. 2-3 Gulf storms is not many, but any of those could be disasterous to the Gulf coast, especially considering this season's potential. The point is, ALWAYS be prepared in ANY given season, ANYWHERE along a hurricane-proned coast.

[Colin]

You are completely right, Luis... even if it is supposed to be a low season for the GOM, that doesn't mean that the Gulf Coast will go unaffected. So, Luis is right, DO NOT LET YOUR GUARD DOWN! :o

[Anonymous]

We're not telling anyone to let their guard down. We're just trying to pinpoint the areas that could have the highest risk if experiencing a major hurricane landfall. We're only working with 100 years of climatology, so we still have a lot to learn.

[Colin]

Yes, TropicalWxWatcher, I understand that... It's just for the people living there to not read that it's going to be a low season, and then not even worry about 1 storm forming...

[vbhoutex]

We're not telling anyone to let their guard down. We're just trying to pinpoint the areas that could have the highest risk if experiencing a major hurricane landfall. We're only working with 100 years of climatology, so we still have a lot to learn.

The points to be made here IMO are that:

1)DO NOT EVER LET YOUR GUARD DOWN DURING HURRICANE SEASON IF YOU ARE NEAR A COAST.
2)Climatology, as stated, is using only 100 years of data, not enough to establish a pattern, maybe suggest one.
3)Maybe when posting to something as RELEVANT AND IMPORTANT to some as how active a season may be and how many landfalls will occur where, we need to include EVERYTHING in that posting including WARNINGS such as posted here, that IT ONLY TAKES ONE to destroy everything you have worked for all your life.

Unfortunately there are some in this world who are smart enough to get on a computer, but not smart enough to think that they shouldn't let their guard down because someone says it will be a quiet season. JMHO.

GOOD DISCUSSION EVERYONE!

[Amanzi]

Great topic you guys!

I think a lot of people just plain ignore hurricane season altogether. A kind of relaxed attitude evolves over a few years if a particular area does not see a storm or does not see any major damage.

The important thing (as many on this thread have stated) Don't let your gaurd down because you have not had a cane in a few seasons. Or even some areas like here on the part of coast I am on, a lot of local people feel we are immune from getting a direct hit because we have never had a severe cane hit here. The local feelings tend to be we are not able to get hit because of the shape of the peninsular... Truth is hurricanes have a mind of there own and don't pay much attention to what people think or state what they will do or where they will go! Just my HMO.

I just think if you are in an area that is near the coast... be prepared and stay safe.

[GulfBreezer]

I have been a GOMER for 30 of those 100 years and have seen more than my share of surprises! Erin and Opal were 2 of them! You guys have hit the nail on the head with this one and take it from someone who has experienced the "unexpected" storms with "unexpected" strength!! This year is marked to be one of many of those surprises, so while the stats will point one way, please don't look away and breath a sigh of relief. Lives can be lost that way!

[southerngale]

I agree with others. If you live near the coast, always be prepared.

Better safe than sorry!!

I've been hearing that certain areas have a better chance of being hit by a hurricane than others and those certain areas vary depending on the source. I just figure that everyone needs to pay attention and nobody should let their guard down because it just takes one to hit your area...

[Toni - 574]

Hey Guys,
I just read a lot of very good posts and I have to say that you guys have made some very profound statements that everyone needs to heed to. I know that I am in 100% overall agreement with what has been said. It can never be stressed enough, that ANYONE THAT LIVES ALONG THE COAST LINE NEEDS TO BE PREPARED AS IF THEY KNOW THAT THEY ARE GOING TO BE HIT BY A MAJOR HURRICANE! No one can say for sure WHERE, WHEN, WHAT, and WHY (http://WWW.WHY) :o

There is also another point that I feel that I must elaborate on, for a little bit. The percentages that I used and posted on earlier on another thread is based on actual landfall history. When I posted on this subject last time I gave %'s is grouped areas. I can break it down a little more to give you a better insight. I think this will help to back up everyones comments that was made earlier, as this is proof that NO ONE IS OUT OF THE WOODS FOR A LANDFALLING STORM IF YOU LIVE ON THE COAST.

Again, the analog years that was used was:1952,54,84,88,89,96,98,2000,and 01 = 107 storms

Mexico = 7 storms
Texas = 8
Louisiana =4
Mississippi =1
Alabama =1
Florida = 11
Georgia =1
S. Carolina =1
N. Carolina =6
Rest of E. Coast =7
All the Islands, Cuba, and S.America had to deal with 60 storms, to either make some kind of impact, re-curve or dissipate.

As you can see, this just about covers all the coastal areas. Anyone of us can look at these numbers and come up with our own thoughts of who we think might have an increased chance this year for a landfall.
I personally think that the GOM(including Florida) will be fairly active, with the possibility of several landfalling hurricanes. The most Western part of the GOM may see a decrease in activity, but then again we go right back to saying that it only takes 1 good storm to make a disaster.

The bottom line is: IF YOU SNOOZ YOU LOSE everyone needs to be ready!

Toni

[Amanzi]

Thanks for the numbers Toni.. Very interesting reading. As you stated and many others as well... It only takes 1!!!!

[vbhoutex]

Toni, I may have missed this earlier, but why those particular analog years?

[Toni - 574]

These were the same analog years that Rob, Jason and Kevin used in their Forcast report. As I told them earlier in the season on another board I do not have the resources nor do I know how to properly use most of them, so I decided to look at these analog years in a very simple yet different approach and just compare the findings.

Toni

[wxman57]

I certaily agree that, most likely, the Gulf of Mexico will be "less active" in 2003 than in 2002. That's almost a certainty. But what does that mean? Last season, there were 6 named storms in the Gulf, and all made landfall along the U.S. coast. That's certainly highly unusual. But consider that these storms were mostly pathetically-weak tropical storms (Edouard, Bertha, Fay, Hanna). Defining a season as more or less active in the Gulf implies nothing about intensity. Consider the following "less active" seasons in the Gulf (and these are just a few of them):

1900: 8000+ killed by Great Galveston Hurricane
1943: Devastating hurricane hits Houston
1948: Two Cat 3/4 hurricanes hit south Florida
1949: Cat 4 hurricane hits Houston
1954: Hazel rips Carolinas
1957: Can anyone say "Audrey"?
1960: Cat 5 Ethyl hit mouth of Mississippi (weakening as it hit), Donna hit Florida.
1961: Massive Cat 4 Carla slams central TX coast
1964: Hilda hits central LA
1965: Betsy slams SE LA
1967: Cat 4 Beulah hits Brownsville, producing 180+ tornadoes
1969: Hmm, wasn't there a tiny storm that hit Pass Christien, MS that year?
1974: Carmen hit mid LA coast
1980: Cat 5 Allen enters Gulf (about the SIZE of the Gulf)
1983: Alica makes direct hit on Houston (only 4 storms that year)
1988: Cat 5 Gilbert enters Gulf, hits Mexico
1998: Georges causes extensive damage in MS

Well, those are just a few of those "less active" seasons in the Gulf.

Several other things to consider:

1. Warmest SSTs are now in the Gulf, Caribbean, and SW Atlantic. Storms will tend to track/form in this region of warmer water. This means a greater risk of a landfalling major hurricane, particularly in Florida and the southeast U.S.

2. Bermuda high, while not extremely strong now, is hinting at a flow pattern that will take Cape Verde storms west toward the U.S.

3. PDO phase has changed! The Pacific Decadal Oscillation describes water temperatures across the eastern Pacific (off the west U.S. coast). For much of the last 10-12 years, the western U.S. was in a "cool phase". This changes the ridge/trof relationship across the U.S. and off the east U.S. coast. It is this cool-phase PDO that helped keep that trof off the east U.S. coast and divert most of the 29 major hurricanes since 1995 safely out to sea. But when the PDO phase changes back to warm, that trof off the east U.S. coast is less pronounced (or gone), as it has been for the past two seasons.

So, tell the people in Mississippi (or Virginia, for that matter) that 1969 was "less active" in the Gulf than 2002.

Well, off to work.

[mf_dolphin]

Great [pst Wxman57. All it takes is one to ruin your whole day! Thanks for the info..

[cycloneye]

Excellent anaylisis of the past GOM years and patterns and that is why I posted this thread to tell all the GOMERS that it only takes one system to ruin the area impacted so if the GOM activity is low it doesn't mean anything so be prepared for anything that may brew in the GOM or move from the caribbean.

[Lindaloo]

You forgot two.

1979- Hurricane Frederic CAT3 landfall at the MS/AL state line.

1985- Hurricane Elena- CAT3 landfall near Ocean Springs, MS.