CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HUC]

http://www.meteo.gp/pro/donnees/radar/g ... 00_ppz.gif

Now,this is a try with the radar image of Guadeloupe;if it's good,these images will be a interesting source for Dean approch of the lesser Antillies,in case of!!!
You have to know that the access ofatGpe and Martinica radars are restrited
Thank's again,tropical low

[WmE]

904 = End of the World storms. There haven't been many that went lower than that over the years (Rita, Wilma, Allen and Gilbert????)

Steve

Katrina + Labor Day, that's it.

[Brent]

HWRF puts it at 904 mb south of Hispaniola

Source?

Dean isn't the healthiest TC right now... still got outflow boundaries eminating from the NE Quad... environment is a bit stable attm.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

[Steve]

Wow. So if it's progged right at 904, we've had only 6 stronger storms since we've been measuring them with the possibility that Dean hadn't even seen the warmest heat content available to it.

Steve

[artist]

I just noticed they have the NHC model in this run. I thought that had been thrown out a couple of years ago?? Anyone??

[cyclonic chronic]

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_126l.gif

is this dean s. of cuba? holly mother of god! if it is a 904mb landfall would be absolutely catastrophic!! thankfully cuba's communist government knows how to deal w/hurricanes and evacuation better than we.

[hurricanetrack]

12Z UKMET loses Dean. Of course, someone might have already said that but with 12,456 people on here, it's hard to tell!

[MWatkins]

Quick note...Dean may have slowed down just a little. The previous rapid forward motion may have seemed a little too rapid due to either tracking the wrong center or a reformation up under the thunderstorms.

Of course it's hard to tell with that satellite presentation...but I don't think it's screaming along at 20 knots right now.

Guess we will find out when they initialize the hurricane models soon...

MW

[PTrackerLA]

Looking at Dean right now, you wouldn't think it could become that strong. It's looking rather ragged on the IR as this mornings burst has faded. It's going to need a decent flare-up soon to keep it's TS status up IMO.

[vacanechaser]

12Z UKMET loses Dean. Of course, someone might have already said that but with 12,456 people on here, it's hard to tell!

idiot!!! lol...



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[gtsmith]

"is this dean s. of cuba?" -- look closer...it's south of Dominican Republic in that frame

[windstorm99]

Is it me or on that run by the HWRF it looks to be moving NW-WNW?

[kozzieman]

After reading many of the posts in this thread; many seem to indicate that it's too early to say where this TS will go but is there any possibility that this TS at some point in time if the conditions are right could make it's way into the GOM?

[destruction92]

There's good reason for that. What the GFS did yesterday made no sense. I called it "bogus" then and it it flip-flops again, I'll call it "bogus" again too. Unless I see a clear reason why either 1) this will get picked-up by a trough or 2) the ridge collapses and it goes north, I will call the GFS "bogus" every time it plows Dean into the ridge. No flip-flopping here.

The Euro held onto the ridge much more realistically than the GFS. What the GFS was suddenly depicting with the trough and subsequent erosion of the ridge did not make sense. Basically the GFS and all the other models that initialize off of it were a bad set of runs. I'm not "arbitrarily cherry-picking" anything. What I saw was a bogus run of the GFS and predictably the whole forum went into SFL/EC panic mode. Predictably many of the other models swung right. Surprisingly the NHC bought into it and shifted right as well. Let me guess, after today's run, the other models (The GFDL already has) and subsequently the NHC will shift left again. You can call it "cherry picking" if you want, I'll call it analyzing more than a single model run of a single model and trying to find some consistency in the entire package. I've been around long enough to not buy into the GFS when it suddenly crashes a ridge and swings a system 2000 miles east of the previous runs.So far, two things are consistent: a weak trough that misses Dean and a rebuilding ridge over the SW Atlantic. Both argue for a Caribbean system...which is what I have said all along. Consistently. After that we get so far into the future it's anyone's guess....[/quote]




Now the forum is going into Texas/GOM panic mode, no?
We'll see what happens with the next GFS run now that Dean appears to be slowing down and moving slower than the reported 20 knots...according to M Watkins. Who knows if today's GFS run was fed the correct data? The center initialization point may be off and a whole lot of other variables will come into play. I just think it is way too early to rule Dean a Gulf of Mexico storm...especially when it has another 500 miles to go before approaching the Leeward Islands!

[ekal]

Sorry about the blank.

[Wx_Warrior]

Everyone has mentioned GOM...10000000s of times....

[cheezyWXguy]

looks like theres a new burst on the NE side, although Im not sure how strong it is, or whether it will take over the center. If it does, it could begin to strengthen again

[ekal]

AN other try

I think you got it, HUC (at least, everything looks right to me). Try doing it again and hitting enter so that there is a line between the img tags and the rest of what you write.

[tgenius]

from what I can see on vis loop, Dean seems to be getting a bit more concise and getting some banding wrapping around the center (or what appears to be it off vis) anyone else agree? Aren't we approaching Dmin too?

[destruction92]

Everyone has mentioned GOM...10000000s of times....

I think it is fair to say that we are officially in the Texas/GOM panic mode. I don't think Rita provided enough satisfaction to those who like hype and hysteria.