CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Sanibel]

Dean is starting to look mean - no pun intended.

[Scorpion]

It is way more organized than it was last night. LLC is not exposed. Once night comes I can see it getting up to 50 kts or so.

[canegrl04]

903mb If Dean were to do that,he will out rank Katrina in the anals of history . BTW,it was on this day that Camille formed

[Wx_Warrior]

Agreed

[punkyg]

I think tonight Dean will develop a hug ball of convection over it center and have better banding with it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

I don't think any track West of 90W seems plausable IMO..just more GFS gumbo..

[CourierPR]

Some decent banding looks to be taking place. It appears to be developing a nice shape. Mets, if I am wrong please correct me.

[HurryKane]

903mb If Dean were to do that,he will out rank Katrina in the anals of history . BTW,it was on this day that Camille formed

I believe you mean "annals"

[destruction92]

903mb If Dean were to do that,he will out rank Katrina in the anals of history . BTW,it was on this day that Camille formed

I believe you mean "annals"

Oh dear.

[sweetpea]

903mb If Dean were to do that,he will out rank Katrina in the anals of history . BTW,it was on this day that Camille formed

I believe you mean "annals"

Oh dear.

LMAO-Just made me choke on my cookie.

[storms in NC]

Are we now in the TX mode? Come on folks. We don't know where it is going. Heck the Islands don't even know.

[Steve]

Ite. All hypers from all states: If you want credibility, you're going to have to own up to your mistakes once they are realized. If you make prognostications (= not going west of 85) or "It's a Florida storm", you better have that thread/crow ready IMHO.

Steve

[Dean4Storms]

903mb If Dean were to do that,he will out rank Katrina in the anals of history . BTW,it was on this day that Camille formed

I believe you mean "annals"

She may have meant "anals"! LOL!

[skysummit]

Ite. All hypers from all states: If you want credibility, you're going to have to own up to your mistakes once they are realized. If you make prognostications (= not going west of 85) or "It's a Florida storm", you better have that thread/crow ready IMHO.

Steve

BOOOYAHHHH....excellent point, but we all know it happens EVERY SINGLE SEASON and for EVERY SINGLE STORM

[jimvb]

Isn't it more efficient to say when the GFS is starting to come out and when it finishes, and let us go to the NCEP site to see where it is in between, and then comment on it? Else there will be one post for each GFS run and for each hour of the run, or if Dean strikes 7 days from now, that is 7x4x48 or 1,344 posts.

By the way, the 12Z run is a 1 on my 0-9 scale. Houston, we have a problem. That means the full string is

174979932645100000168651

By the way, something happened to the Search utility. I can't find it.

[Wx_Warrior]

What's your pref Jim?

[jasons2k]

There's good reason for that. What the GFS did yesterday made no sense. I called it "bogus" then and it it flip-flops again, I'll call it "bogus" again too. Unless I see a clear reason why either 1) this will get picked-up by a trough or 2) the ridge collapses and it goes north, I will call the GFS "bogus" every time it plows Dean into the ridge. No flip-flopping here.
The Euro held onto the ridge much more realistically than the GFS. What the GFS was suddenly depicting with the trough and subsequent erosion of the ridge did not make sense. Basically the GFS and all the other models that initialize off of it were a bad set of runs. I'm not "arbitrarily cherry-picking" anything. What I saw was a bogus run of the GFS and predictably the whole forum went into SFL/EC panic mode. Predictably many of the other models swung right. Surprisingly the NHC bought into it and shifted right as well. Let me guess, after today's run, the other models (The GFDL already has) and subsequently the NHC will shift left again. You can call it "cherry picking" if you want, I'll call it analyzing more than a single model run of a single model and trying to find some consistency in the entire package. I've been around long enough to not buy into the GFS when it suddenly crashes a ridge and swings a system 2000 miles east of the previous runs.So far, two things are consistent: a weak trough that misses Dean and a rebuilding ridge over the SW Atlantic. Both argue for a Caribbean system...which is what I have said all along. Consistently. After that we get so far into the future it's anyone's guess.....

Now the forum is going into Texas/GOM panic mode, no?
We'll see what happens with the next GFS run now that Dean appears to be slowing down and moving slower than the reported 20 knots...according to M Watkins. Who knows if today's GFS run was fed the correct data? The center initialization point may be off and a whole lot of other variables will come into play. I just think it is way too early to rule Dean a Gulf of Mexico storm...especially when it has another 500 miles to go before approaching the Leeward Islands!

This is getting almost comical.

If you read carefully, the words TX or GOM are not anywhere in my post.

If you re-read carefully again, I stated "Both argue for a Caribbean system...which is what I have said all along. Consistently. After that we get so far into the future it's anyone's guess...."

What part of that says Texas?? I'd really like to know....

[dolebot_Broward_NW]

By the way, something happened to the Search utility. I can't find it.

I bet search was disabled - most likely due to the recent spike in TS Dean/91L/Flossie activity.

[Jevo]

Two words...

Herbert Box

[Dean4Storms]

The very fact that the GFS has swung so dramatically day to day ought to tell ya something.