INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[drezee]

I see no reason why this should not become TS Erin while the RECON is out there. The center has been pulled under the convection and is ready to intensify...

[Sanibel]

Image test: 91L:



Moving away from cool upwelling now. Watch for strengthening.

[Steve]

Pardon the temporary threadjack please...

>>Not to be rude but the government can't do that much to bail everyone out. Insurance companies are companies, not charities.

Well with the government in the back pocket of the insurance industry, maybe it was one of the few mistakes with capitalism. Why should they fight payouts of policies? Because they want greater bottom lines and dividends for the share and stakeholders. Government already bailed them out for terrorism coverage which would have made most large real estate ventures impossible to cover (again per the insurance companies). They're going to get whatever they want as they always do without giving a damn about those they insure. Therefore, either we pay these premiums for policies that they don't intend to pay out when we run into a catastrophe or we suck it up as consumers of a bad product (fwiw, I didn't want to dig too deeply into it which is why I said "other ways." One way for insurance to start writing again would be for the government to kick in after "x" dollars of damage in a catastrophe (arbitrary say 5 or 10 billion insured losses). That makes the risk acceptable for those running the ponzi scheme and shares the pain a little.

>>If you ever buy a home anywhere you simply MUST be aware of the risks before asking the insurance company to insure you or to get quotes. If I lived below 25 feet in elevation less than 3 miles from the gulf of mexico I would get flood insurance there and if the premiums were too high I'd live further inland. I mean some of the people that lived down on the coast not having flood insurance is just insane to me. How could you not at least look into it?

I owned flood insurance and I lived at Sea Level in a raised house that had never flooded in any hurricane, tropical storm or 20" rainfall deluge since it was built in 1950. I also had homeowners. I had to fight with both of them and never got full payouts on either one (despite paying for coverage that should have fully insured my losses). Who knew that failed levees would be the thing to flood me out?

Then look at people on the Mississippi Gulf Coast who were told they weren't in a flood zone and didn't need flood insurance because 1 block off the beach is 25 ABOVE sea level. Yeah, we know now.

>>As to the premiums, the premiums are going to go up because you're living in a higher risk area. You simply can't put a home in a high risk area and expect it to be there forever.

My premium jumped from 1,200 for homeowners (who paid out < $10k fwiw) to > $2,500. My flood went up from $1,600 to $2,600 in a year. I don't expect my home to be here forever, but if people enjoy seafood and gasoline, they better figure out something. And btw, do you recall any of these insurers posting record losses in 2005 or 2006? Didn't think so.

Steve

[cyclonic chronic]

looking at the latest vis loop, Dean is really starting to spin up!!

[Duddy]

looking at the latest vis loop, Dean is really starting to spin up!!

This thread is about 91L. did you mean Erin?

[cyclonic chronic]

wrong post. srry!

[btangy]

it happens all of the time and why most here should NOT be even loking at ATCF.

It was desgined so the mets can have the data, not weather enthusiasts. Mods, please delete the official forecast as that should not have been released

This data is publicly available to anyone who wishes to view it. It is an official track and intensity forecast, and it is not usual practice for all invests. If the NHC didn't want people to have access to it, it wouldn't be available on their ftp site. Why do you have a problem with this? There's no reason to censor this data. If you do, one could argue that all guidance should be withheld from invests.

[Derek Ortt]

if NHC wanted their official forecast for an INTERNALLY carried system made available, they'd have called this as a TD.

They did this with TD 10 in 2005 before it meregd with another wave to become Katrina. I was fully aware of it and made RAINEX planners aware of it (and why I was coninuing forecasts on TD 10.. for RAINEX). However, I refused to share that info here as it was not exactly for public use

[RL3AO]

I made a little 2 degree by 2 degree box to plot the recon data...boy I've gone off the deep end.

[btangy]

if NHC wanted their official forecast for an INTERNALLY carried system made available, they'd have called this as a TD.

They did this with TD 10 in 2005 before it meregd with another wave to become Katrina. I was fully aware of it and made RAINEX planners aware of it (and why I was coninuing forecasts on TD 10.. for RAINEX). However, I refused to share that info here as it was not exactly for public use

Although they don't issue these forecasts on the NHC website, I think if the NHC feels they can make forecasts during the genesis phase in cases in which confidence is very high development will take place, they should. We all know the delineation between a 'disturbance' and a 'depression' is somewhat arbitrary. I fail to see how my posting of their internal forecast hurts the NHC. It's a reasonable forecast and probably not far from their official first forecast if/when they do classify this as TD5.

[Sanibel]

Just got a heavy downpour from 91L-related convection.


91L really starting to move now. Center could be nearer to 23 now.

[MGC]

I've been assessing the situation down in the GOM since early this morning. It appears to me that the circulation center that formed off the Yucatan yesterday has weakened and is becoming elongated. I think a new circulation center is forming north of the original circulation center closer to the convection. If this is the case then I believe TD 5 is forming. Of course I could be wrong but that is my opinion. If this new center is indeed found it is likely that it will be classified a TD. This system IMO should reach TS strength prior to reaching the Texas coast. Looking like a Corpus to Galveston landfall if the center has relocated north......MGC

[Stormcenter]

I've been assessing the situation down in the GOM since early this morning. It appears to me that the circulation center that formed off the Yucatan yesterday has weakened and is becoming elongated. I think a new circulation center is forming north of the original circulation center closer to the convection. If this is the case then I believe TD 5 is forming. Of course I could be wrong but that is my opinion. If this new center is indeed found it is likely that it will be classified a TD. This system IMO should reach TS strength prior to reaching the Texas coast. Looking like a Corpus to Galveston landfall if the center has relocated north......MGC

You may be selling this thing short if you only think it will be a TS at landfall.

[vaffie]

As the plane has been flying south through the blob, estimated surface pressures fell to 1007.5 and now have started going up. It was at that point that winds were the lightest too. That occurred at 23.5, 90.0. So it looks like the center has reformed 1 degree to the north. Winds albeit super-light are shifting from the east now to the SSW.

[Brent]

I'd watch this one closely, could be explosive development.

[TexWx]

I was looking at this one...
but, a "blow up," nonetheless.....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-rb.html

[HouTXmetro]

Ive been gone an hour for lunch, any new developments besides looking better then ever?

[HurricaneGirl]

Great sat loop of 91L and 90L/TD4
http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~ovens/loops/wxloop.cgi?wv_east_enhanced+12

Nice Sat. Loop. thanks for posting.

[Tireman4]

Not to thread hijack, but this is in a similar vein, did NWS HGX site go down?

[RL3AO]

From what I can tell, the center appears to be around 23.6N, 90.0W