INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[cpdaman]

i think it will be a 30mph depression at 5pm

[Steve]

so this will become a hurricane? i think so and it will hit houston i think.

Steve

[Extremeweatherguy]

so far they have found winds in the 20-25mph range.

I have never seen the NHC or any other agency upgrading a system to 20 or 25 mph.

I've seen 25mph TDs.

[HURAKAN]

so far they have found winds in the 20-25mph range.

I have never seen the NHC or any other agency upgrading a system to 20 or 25 mph.

I've seen 25mph TDs.

Yes, but usually when a final advisory is written. But to start on a system, I have never seen it.

[RL3AO]

I've never seen a first advisory with 20 kt winds.

[Stormcenter]

Here is a very nice visible loop...notice the new ball of convection
forming where the center may be.

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12

[Bailey1777]

I think it's potential might be enough for them to make the call. Not alot of time for joe public to react.

[Brent]

so far they have found winds in the 20-25mph range.

I have never seen the NHC or any other agency upgrading a system to 20 or 25 mph.

I've seen 25mph TDs.

Yes, but usually when a final advisory is written. But to start on a system, I have never seen it.

I haven't either.

NOT impressed with the recon obs on this AT ALL.

[HURAKAN]

We should have combined 99L with 91L and we could be already talking about a tropical depression or storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The center does seem to be more NE now. I think we should let them do a few more passes before writing this off.

[RL3AO]

I think it's potential might be enough for them to make the call. Not alot of time for joe public to react.

Good point.

[chadtm80]

Where have you seen 20 - 25MPH?

[Yankeegirl]

Looks like its trying to get into something.... still not sold on the models... I think somewhere more north of where they are plotting the impact... maybe corpus or matagorda... just a thought, no rhyme or reason... in any case, houston will get a break from the heat and get some rain...

[Extremeweatherguy]

Where have you seen 20 - 25MPH?

the recon thread. There were a few obs at 23mph at the top of page 2.

[Extremeweatherguy]

They are also now beginning to find more 20-21mph readings. should be interesting to see if any obs can reach 30mph+ in the next few data sets.

[RL3AO]

Up to 18 knots...we will know more in 20 minutes.

[Tireman4]

Wow the NWS is still down? Interesting.

[HouTXmetro]

If the center is under the newest Convection Blow up I would start being concerned along the mid to upper TX coast. I just don't understand why this thing is so weak but looks so great.

[vaffie]

Judging by how the convection is continuing to build to the northeast of the center and diminishing at the new center at 23.4N, I would not be surprised if it reforms this evening at 24-24.5N. By then, the shear that is causing these reformations will have relaxed and perfect development conditions will ensue late tonight at a more northerly location--the upper Texas coast should really be paying attention in the morning, for even though still weak right now, it could rapidly reach 60 knots by morning and possibly 80 or so by Wednesday night, and if all of this takes place, anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston Bay could experience a strengthening Category 1 or 2 Hurricane conditions early Thursday or some time thereafter.

[HouTXmetro]

They are also now beginning to find more 20-21mph readings. should be interesting to see if any obs can reach 30mph+ in the next few data sets.

Are they near the newest convection outburst?