INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[artist]

are those obs reduced or not?

I definately think the obs are less than impressive at this time, also.

[Extremeweatherguy]

They are also now beginning to find more 20-21mph readings. should be interesting to see if any obs can reach 30mph+ in the next few data sets.

Are they near the newest convection outburst?

They are getting close, but no I do not believe they are there yet.

[Yankeegirl]

Totally agree with ya..... and i also agree how come it looks so good, but isnt healthy at all??!! And we all know that a storm can pop up outta no where and form into something overnight.... ie. Allison....


Crap, you guys beat me... I was agreeing with Vaffie....

"Judging by how the convection is continuing to build to the northeast of the center and diminishing at the new center at 23.4N, I would not be surprised if it reforms this evening at 24-24.5N. By then, the shear that is causing these reformations will have relaxed and perfect development conditions will ensue late tonight at a more northerly location--the upper Texas coast should really be paying attention in the morning, for even though still weak right now, it could rapidly reach 60 knots by morning and possibly 80 or so by night-time, and if all of this takes place, anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston Bay could experience a strengthening Category 1 or 2 Hurricane conditions."

[Extremeweatherguy]

I have a feeling that they will find some higher winds if and when they reach the new burst of deep convection. Might be enough for them to upgrade.

[Extremeweatherguy]

20 knot (~23mph) winds now being found by Recon.

All they need for an upgrade now are winds 7mph stronger. They have to be there somewhere, right?

[weatherrabbit_tx]

Judging by how the convection is continuing to build to the northeast of the center and diminishing at the new center at 23.4N, I would not be surprised if it reforms this evening at 24-24.5N. By then, the shear that is causing these reformations will have relaxed and perfect development conditions will ensue late tonight at a more northerly location--the upper Texas coast should really be paying attention in the morning, for even though still weak right now, it could rapidly reach 60 knots by morning and possibly 80 or so by Wednesday night, and if all of this takes place, anywhere from Corpus Christi to Galveston Bay could experience a strengthening Category 1 or 2 Hurricane conditions early Thursday or some time thereafter.

not to scare anyone, kinda like alicia, hopefully not!

[Stormcenter]

91L soon to be TD is starting to take shape. I believe the center is right where that red dot is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

[artist]

Does anyone know if the obs are being reduced for surface findings?

[Yankeegirl]

Yes, I agree... so its going to have to curve down to hit south texas?

[Tireman4]

91L soon to be TD is starting to take shape. I believe the center is right where that red dot is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

I think you are onto something. I do wonder if the models will reflect when the new advisories come out?

[Starburst]

Does anyone know if the obs are being reduced for surface findings?

The decoded obs in green have already been reduced.

[Extremeweatherguy]

this system looks so good right now that I fear if they do not upgrade it at 5pm that it will decide to rapidly develop overnight and catch everyone off guard in the morning. Hopefully the Recon can find data sufficient enough to classify this and get everyone prepared this evening.

[vaffie]

91L soon to be TD is starting to take shape. I believe the center is right where that red dot is.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html

If you're talking about the northeasternmost coldest tops, I don't think that that's where the center is--yet--not based on the recon data--but that is where the center may ultimately reform tonight.

[HenkL]

File showing recon observations, to be used with GoogleEarth: http://wxgr.nl/tmppic/WXRecon.kml
The numbers show winddir (degrees) and high windspeed (knots) on flight level. Latest position in red.
URL is valid this evening only (a try out).

[vaffie]

File showing recon observations, to be used with GoogleEarth: http://wxgr.nl/tmppic/WXRecon.kml
The numbers show winddir (degrees) and high windspeed (knots) on flight level. Latest position in red.
URL is valid this evening only (a try out).

Very nice.

[Stormcenter]

I can see this developing into at least a TS if not more.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

[Extremeweatherguy]

They still have not investigated the very deepest convection NE of the center, where I think the highest winds are. Hopefully they will!

Currently they just flew in from the east side (lots of 21-24mph wind readings) and are now heading back for the center. Pressure is dropping as they approach and is at 1006.9mb currently.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I cannot see this developing into at least a TS if not more.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

you "cannot" see it developing into a TS?

[Opal storm]

I can't see rapid development taking place with this sytem before it reaches land, right now deep convection is fading and spreading out. Looks like a weak TS for Texas at best. Good news for surfers.

[jasons2k]

20 knot (~23mph) winds now being found by Recon.

All they need for an upgrade now are winds 7mph stronger. They have to be there somewhere, right?

7mph for what? There is no minimum WS criteria for a TD