INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Stormcenter]

I cannot see this developing into at least a TS if not more.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-vis.html

you "cannot" see it developing into a TS?

My mistake...sorry. I just caught and corrected it.

[Extremeweatherguy]

20 knot (~23mph) winds now being found by Recon.

All they need for an upgrade now are winds 7mph stronger. They have to be there somewhere, right?

7mph for what? There is no minimum WS criteria for a TD

I know, but as others have pointed out they usually do not upgrade to anything less than 30mph. I guess we will see what they do in this case though. I just hope they investigate that new blob northeast of center soon, that is where I think they may find the highest winds.

[jasons2k]

That's usually b/c anything less than 30mph almost always won't have a T number of at least 1.0 and a closed circulation. Almost always if there is a closed circulation the winds will be 30+ -- at least for a developing system. Now a dying TD is a different story...

[HouTXmetro]

When is the dirunial minimum?

[RL3AO]

When is the dirunial minimum?

Sunset.

[HurricaneRobert]

GFDL isn't a bullish on this as it was before. But what is that in the Eastern Caribbean?

Link

[RL3AO]

I guess we don't know what they found in the center.

[Brent]

GFDL isn't a bullish on this as it was before. But what is that in the Eastern Caribbean?

Link

Dean???

[Extremeweatherguy]

Looking at the satellite, it seems like the LLC might be in the process of trying to relocate under that new, intense ball of convection to the NE of the old one...

http://adds.aviationweather.gov/satelli ... &itype=vis

I really hope recon checks that area out.

[vaffie]

GFDL isn't a bullish on this as it was before. But what is that in the Eastern Caribbean?

Link

Wait until the 00Z models--hopefully, the GFS, GFDL and company will all have the recon data and then some so that they will be initialized correctly. They still think it's a wave.

[HurricaneRobert]

GFDL isn't a bullish on this as it was before. But what is that in the Eastern Caribbean?

Link

Dean???

I just checked the latest for "04L" and it's going west???

Plus Dean should at least be a hurricane in 96 hours.

[jwayne]

18z nam has hurricane hitting matagorda bay Thursday before noon. Can anyone tell how strong?

[HouTXmetro]

I honestly thought we had a atleast a TD on our hand. I guess the satellites can really be deceiving to the untrained eye.

[Steve]

That's its depiction of Dean on the 91L run. I remember one of the pro mets discussed the GFDL a couple of seasons back how in the context of a certain vector (or whatever the term is), it could show another system doing something it hasn't progged directly for that system (intensity/location). But that's its depiction of Dean coming on the scene while looking at 91L.

Steve

[Brent]

GFDL isn't a bullish on this as it was before. But what is that in the Eastern Caribbean?

Link

Dean???

I just checked the latest for "04L" and it's going west???

Plus Dean should at least be a hurricane in 96 hours.

Yeah that's what I thought also but it's very close to where Dean is expected to be then. Weird.

[vaffie]

It appears that the lowest pressure has been found at 23.3, 90.15W at 1006.8 mb. At that point, the wind changes direction as the plane passed through it, from south to north. I expect this is the new center location that they've identified. It is approximately 90 miles south-south-west of the strongest convection, and so we may find center reforming substantially to the north over the next 12 hours.

[O Town]

When is the dirunial minimum?

Sunset.

I thought minimum was during the day and maximum is during the night.

[HouTXmetro]

It appears that the lowest pressure has been found at 23.3, 90.15W at 1006.8 mb. At that point, the wind changes direction as the plane passed through it, from south to north. I expect this is the new center location that they've identified. It is approximately 90 miles south-south-west of the strongest convection, and so we may find center reforming substantially to the north over the next 12 hours.

It's running out of time, we are going to have landfall by the time this things gets it's stacking issues together... lol

[vaffie]

18z nam has hurricane hitting matagorda bay Thursday before noon. Can anyone tell how strong?

Link please.

[HURAKAN]

Really looks like a storm but there is nothing to support it.