CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Derek Ortt]

not a convective burst, but a transient shower that built and died. Maybe the intensity forecast needs to be re-evaluated and the GFS really needs to do a better job assimilating humidity data as it ruins every other model

[StormWarning1]

18Z GFS at 5:30 Central time.

4:30 Central

[ConvergenceZone]

storm needs convection very very soon. Not looking healthy at all this afternoon

Wow, this morning it looked good for major intensification, now we don't even though if it's going to survive...This does sound familiar to last year, total deja vu there...

[Extremeweatherguy]

storm needs convection very very soon. Not looking healthy at all this afternoon

Wow, this morning it looked good for major intensification, now we don't even though if it's going to survive...This does sound familiar to last year, total deja vu there...

lol. Chris, the major hurricane that never was..

[Scorpion]

No..Chris did not have nearly the global support that Dean has

[Brent]

storm needs convection very very soon. Not looking healthy at all this afternoon

Wow, this morning it looked good for major intensification, now we don't even though if it's going to survive...This does sound familiar to last year, total deja vu there...

lol. Chris, the major hurricane that never was..

or Ernesto...

Gah this better not be one of those(AGAIN). I'm waiting to see what happens tonight though.

[jhamps10]

great forecast wxmann, In fact I suspect to see NHC follow something along those lines in the 5PM forecast.

I'd join in the forecast madness, however my laptop (which is my forecasting computer is down) Maybe come saturday I will have it back. So no graphics, but I may do some text forecasts this evening.

[Derek Ortt]

this is going down the path of Chantal 2001 for now. Great structure but not able to do anything.

If the latest wave can disrupt the SAL, this will undergo RI, but unitl then, it could be a struggle

[punkyg]

Guys this thing can refire convection so stop saying its weakining
its gonna start looking better around 7pm or 8pm.


oh but first i gotta feed it some trail mix and some water.

[HUC]

THERE IS TIME BETWEEN 41° AND 60°W FOR A SYSTEM TO DEVELOPPE!!!!!!!!!!!

[jhamps10]

storm needs convection very very soon. Not looking healthy at all this afternoon

Wow, this morning it looked good for major intensification, now we don't even though if it's going to survive...This does sound familiar to last year, total deja vu there...

no kidding. However I think that this will develop, espically since that dry air seems to be shrinking just a wee bit. Plus dean has some major model support here.

[ConvergenceZone]

storm needs convection very very soon. Not looking healthy at all this afternoon

Wow, this morning it looked good for major intensification, now we don't even though if it's going to survive...This does sound familiar to last year, total deja vu there...

lol. Chris, the major hurricane that never was..

hehe, yep, all this might be for not...I wouldn't be latching onto that theory but when you have pro METS on here doubting its survival, then ya got to listen....I mentioned deja vu, because there were a few times last year where all the models were latching onto hurricanes, and the same thing happened. "Poof" became the word we used throughout the season.

[Opal storm]

or Ernesto...

Gah this better not be one of those(AGAIN). I'm waiting to see what happens tonight though.

Well, if that wall of dry air doesn't moisten up...nothing good is going to happen to Dean.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not forecasting weakening, let that be known

I am rethinking major cane for the Islands

[windstorm99]

[MWatkins]

There is still plenty of moisture in the envelope...and the bands suggest there is good low level convergence. We should see a burst again here pretty soon...within the next couple of hours. I don't think we've seen the last of Dean to be sure...

MW

[Brent]

There is still plenty of moisture in the envelope...and the bands suggest there is good low level convergence. We should see a burst again here pretty soon...within the next couple of hours. I don't think we've seen the last of Dean to be sure...

MW

I agree... *anxiously awaits the 5pm advisory* I was always skeptical of rapid strengthening until it got to about 45-50 W anyway.

[Acral]

My thought is along the lines of the pros, maybe not the world beater system before hitting the islands that we all had been thinking, but then all bets would be off. As I type this, I wonder if come tommorrow we will all be back on the RI bandwagon. Silly storms.

[wxmann_91]

great forecast wxmann, In fact I suspect to see NHC follow something along those lines in the 5PM forecast.

I'd join in the forecast madness, however my laptop (which is my forecasting computer is down) Maybe come saturday I will have it back. So no graphics, but I may do some text forecasts this evening.

I am looking forward to your forecasts hamps ...and thanks for the compliments

EDIT: Nice call hamps... the NHC 5PM fcst does look similar to mine

[Emmett_Brown]

I know he is controversial, but has anyone heard what JB is saying today about the future path of Dean?

Also, while some have stated that the models are all over the place on Dean (which is true for the GFS), the Euro has been very consistent with threatening FL. While the Euro may not be a great tropical model in terms for forecasting TC development, it seems quite good at forecasting the overall global pattern, and hence the steering flow that a system might follow.