INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

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Extremeweatherguy
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#721 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:36 pm

vaffie wrote:It appears that the lowest pressure has been found at 23.3, 90.15W at 1006.8 mb. At that point, the wind changes direction as the plane passed through it, from south to north. I expect this is the new center location that they've identified. It is approximately 90 miles south-south-west of the strongest convection, and so we may find center reforming substantially to the north over the next 12 hours.
Yeah, and it looks like that process is already beginning. Should be interesting to see what the NHC decides to do with this.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#722 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:36 pm

O Town wrote:
RL3AO wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:When is the dirunial minimum?


Sunset.

I thought minimum was during the day and maximum is during the night.


It is. Minimum in late afternoon and maximium before sunrise.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#723 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:37 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:
vaffie wrote:It appears that the lowest pressure has been found at 23.3, 90.15W at 1006.8 mb. At that point, the wind changes direction as the plane passed through it, from south to north. I expect this is the new center location that they've identified. It is approximately 90 miles south-south-west of the strongest convection, and so we may find center reforming substantially to the north over the next 12 hours.


It's running out of time, we are going to have landfall by the time this things gets it's stacking issues together... lol


It's all for better if that is the case. We don't need even a minimal hurricane anywhere.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#724 Postby Stratosphere747 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:38 pm

vaffie wrote:
jwayne wrote:18z nam has hurricane hitting matagorda bay Thursday before noon. Can anyone tell how strong?

Link please.


18z

Image
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#725 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:41 pm

The thing that is tricky about these systems is that they can have their highest winds in a very small area. If the recon misses that area, then we may never really know how strong it is. That is why I am dying to see what they can find to the NE of the center in that intensifying blob. If they could find some 25-30 knot winds up there, then I am pretty sure the NHC would go ahead with an upgrade.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#726 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:44 pm

It still looks impressive for a wave. :lol:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/satelli ... uration=12
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#727 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:51 pm

Image

for anyone wondering, the last recon position was right near that red "X".

I suspect they will head NE next and check out those cold cloud top areas where they have not been yet.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#728 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 14, 2007 3:52 pm

Thanks. As best as I can make out by zooming in, the 18Z Nam has it make landfall at 42 hours (Thursday 7 am) about 30 miles southwest of Matagorda Bay with a pressure of about 984 mb--which might equate to 70 knots/80 mph. But the 00Z NAM will be much more informative and representative.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#729 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:02 pm

Convection in the last half an hour really booming now to the northeast of the center. I expect that a midlevel center is forming there now and in time the lowest surface pressures will end up there too.
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html
Last edited by vaffie on Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:03 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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#730 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:03 pm

Maybe closer to 24 North.
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#731 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:05 pm

its taking to much time.. everyone hour it does not become better organized gives it a smaller chance of becoming anything but a minimal TS.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#732 Postby marcane_1973 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:10 pm

Recon still flying around this invest?
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#733 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:12 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:Recon still flying around this invest?


Flying north now...not sure if they are going home or going to the bigger convection.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#734 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:12 pm

marcane_1973 wrote:Recon still flying around this invest?


yeah but are not finding much...

they did find west winds.. thats about it
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#735 Postby cycloneye » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:13 pm

ABNT20 KNHC 142112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1390 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEREFORE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IMMEDIATELY UPON THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN


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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted

#736 Postby Ed Mahmoud » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:14 pm

21 knot wnd at flight level on last data message.
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Re: INVEST 91L - Discussions,Analysis and Sat Pics

#737 Postby Stormcenter » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:14 pm

cycloneye wrote:ABNT20 KNHC 142112
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT TUE AUG 14 2007

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM DEAN...LOCATED ABOUT 1390 MILES EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS BEEN
INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF
MEXICO THIS AFTERNOON. DATA FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT THE SYSTEM DOES NOT YET HAVE A WELL-DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND THEREFORE IS NOT YET A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL WINDS CONTINUE TO BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM AT ANY TIME
TONIGHT OR TOMORROW AS THE LOW MOVES TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR
NORTHWEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. AIRCRAFT DATA INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM
WINDS WITH THE LOW ARE CURRENTLY AROUND 25 MPH. ALL INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IMMEDIATELY UPON THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN




Hmmmm moving wnw or nw. It looks more NW to my untrained eyes.
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#738 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:15 pm

What I think will happen is that the RECON will investigate for higher winds in the NE convection and then head home. If it looks better by 11pm and appears that a new LLC may have formed under it, then I believe they will upgrade.
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Re: INVEST 91L - 5:30 PM Tropical Weather Outlook Posted

#739 Postby Brent » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:16 pm

This thing needs to hurry... it's running out of time.
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Re:

#740 Postby vaffie » Tue Aug 14, 2007 4:16 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:its taking to much time.. everyone hour it does not become better organized gives it a smaller chance of becoming anything but a minimal TS.


I disagree--for once, Aric. The act of reforming to the northeast gives it much more time and allows for greater pressure falls and more ideal strengthening conditions. Already reformation has given it an extra 12 hours--it was supposed to make landfall on Wednesday night--now the NAM is pushing it to Thursday morning--the next run may make it early Thursday afternoon, and if reformation continues, it may not make landfall until Thursday night or even Friday morning. That's possibly an extra 24 hours of ideal strengthening conditions--the kind that could result in an additional 1 mb pressure fall/hr. Right now--the 18Z NAM is progging it for landfall on Thursday morning as a 984 mb system. If that was delayed further by 12-24 hours, we could be looking at anywhere from a 960-975 mb system. Category 3 territory! So this is very bad. I'm certainly not calling for it, but Rita was just to the north of this area, and under the most ideal conditions, it's pressure was falling at its peak at 7 mb/hour. Same with Charlie. It's just worth keeping in mind
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