CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[windstorm99]

Might this take a track similar to david in 1979?

Also wouldn't the western edge of the Ridge be eroded causing the storm to turn north sooner affecting the east coast or eastern gulf?

[SouthFloridawx]

[canegrl04]

If Accu's path were to pan out,alot of Americans will be in deep doo doo. Cat 3-Cat 5

[tracyswfla]

that's all i have to say.

[KBBOCA]

The AccuWeather forecast also continues to intensify this faster than NHC. They have it as a Cat2 in the Lesser Antilles, which NHC does not.

[Brent]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

yeah, if it was a 900 into haiti, then we would have a disaster a lot worse than Katrina EVER was. But I look at this on the good side too, and forgive me for saying this, but a 900 mb hitting haiti would seriously hurt this thing, and would help the US.

Haiti is not that big. For if a cat-3-5 would go over it would do nothing to the storm.JMO

David hit Hispanola as a Cat 5 and re-emerged as barely a Cat 1.

[k4sdi]

Old image guys I think thats the 12Z euro run.

It is scary though isnt it?

[weatherguru18]

I had a feeling that this would be a Caribbean hurricane. I based my forecast on the center a bit further south than thought and it's farther west than anticipated, therefore out running the troph.

I haven't had a chance to look at any models lately except the NHC. I'll be back in a moment.

[Wx_Warrior]

That was the last EURO...Dont think it's be updated since so I believe it's the latest.

[jaxfladude]

Is TS Dean taking a more due western/dip to the south track(per one of my local TV mets) than thought last night? I think Dean may do what Hurricane Flossie is now doing going under the islands( a take on Joe B. tele-what-you-call-it?) But the intensity in reverse of course....
My prayers for all....

[mf_dolphin]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

yeah, if it was a 900 into haiti, then we would have a disaster a lot worse than Katrina EVER was. But I look at this on the good side too, and forgive me for saying this, but a 900 mb hitting haiti would seriously hurt this thing, and would help the US.

Haiti is not that big. For if a cat-3-5 would go over it would do nothing to the storm.JMO

Hispanola has some very high mountains that have torn apart several storms. The down side for any storm getting into the Carib is that they're going to make landfall somewhere.

[JonathanBelles]

Is there a master model run schedule? I know its 0,6,12,and 18z but what time in est for each of the models?

[HarlequinBoy]

Can't imagine what would happen if the WRF verified... 900 mb into Haiti? Most of the houses are quite flimsy.. they would be levelled without a doubt.

yeah, if it was a 900 into haiti, then we would have a disaster a lot worse than Katrina EVER was. But I look at this on the good side too, and forgive me for saying this, but a 900 mb hitting haiti would seriously hurt this thing, and would help the US.

Haiti is not that big. For if a cat-3-5 would go over it would do nothing to the storm.JMO

You have to remember it's pretty mountainous, it would cause a lot of disruption to the circulation.


EDIT: Sorry, I see mf_dolphin posted just before me.

[SouthFloridawx]

That was the last EURO...Dont think it's be updated since so I believe it's the latest.

It's the latest EURO run for today...
12z Ran a couple of hours ago...

Next run for the euro 00Z

[KFDM Meteorologist]

6 Hr

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_006l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

Haiti won't do anything to the storm...


Tell that to David... mad elandfall as a 5, left as a TS

[Aquawind]

GFS 18Z has started.

18 hrs..



http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_018m.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

18

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_018m.gif

[Brent]

Haiti won't do anything to the storm...


Tell that to David... mad elandfall as a 5, left as a TS

Or Georges... hit as a Cat 3, barely a cane when it left, and it never fully recovered(over the warm Gulf never became a major again).

[jaxfladude]

Hispaniola has some very high mountains that have torn apart several storms. The down side for any storm getting into the Carib is that they're going to make landfall somewhere.
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Think of Hispaniola as the cannon fodder for tropical systems that move into that particular region of the Caribbean from the south to east or sometime the south and to west...


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