CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[windstorm99]

Begining a possible WNW heading?

[WxGuy1]

Explain what that means SFWX...?

It's an upper-level low that would be the driving force in providing a recurvature route for Dean (and providing increased vertical shear over Dean as well). If Dean can stay south enough, it may avoid being influenced by that ULL. If not, that ULL would help steer Dean northwestward. That eventual track of Dean depends upon the location and timing of that ULL (and associated upper-level cyclonic shear axis/trough). Of course, Dean's near-term intensity (through 48 hrs) impacts its latitudinal location as it nears the islands, which in turn will affect it's proximity to the ULL and the steering influences provided by that ULL.

[storms in NC]

Nicaragua would be my guess. as long as it stays at 18-21 MPH stright line to Nicaragua.

[marcane_1973]

The big problem with this storm is its been in a hurry from the get go and has never been able to hold a decent LLC for a long period of time. Dean needs to sloooooow down. Seems like he was given a major dosage of speed and crack before he left Africa.

[Wx_Warrior]

Thank you very much!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

138 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_138l.gif

[Wx_Warrior]

138

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_ten_138m.gif

[windstorm99]

Looks to be moving NW-WNW there...@138hrs.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

138 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_138l.gif

[Weatherfreak14]

The big problem with this storm is its been in a hurry from the get go and has never been able to hold a decent LLC for a long period of time. Dean needs to sloooooow down. Seems like he was given a major dosage of speed and crack before he left Africa.

I knew thats what they use to seed storms.LOL

[SouthFloridawx]

Now we're starting get closer to the point, where the models will show specific features that may be a little more verifiable in the mid-upper levels.

[Derek Ortt]

that UL could also shear Dean if it gets too close... but then again, it is a GFS projection

[Brent]

Looks similar to the previous run.

[SouthFloridawx]

He'll slow down as the ridge starts to weaken due to upper level trough interaction.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/18/images/gfs_500_048l.gif

[Derek Ortt]

teh forward speed has no bearing on this having an LLC.

Please explain to me how slowing down when the upper easterlies are 30KT is good for the storm. How is increasing the shear going to help this


For the record, Allen and Ivan became cat 4s moving even faster

[storms in NC]

Looks similar to the previous run.

Then Wed you will see it back going out to sea LOL.

But really on the speed it is going straight across.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

150 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150l.gif

[Weatherfreak14]

If this slows down more than it is moving now i think it may get norrth of the islands and a less chance for a bad strike in the carribean.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

150

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

Little slower and a tad east from 12Z

[Brent]

teh forward speed has no bearing on this having an LLC.

Please explain to me how slowing down when the upper easterlies are 30KT is good for the storm. How is increasing the shear going to help this


For the record, Allen and Ivan became cat 4s moving even faster

Thank you Derek. There's a common misconception all over the internet that fast forward speed is bad. Sometimes I even buy into it and forget.