INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[Extremeweatherguy]

recon seems to be finding a center (winds went to 1 knot) near 23.5N, 90.5W. This is about 1 degree of latitude north of where it was earlier. Interesting..

[Normandy]

Hopefully recon finds something of substance so that the NHC can go ahead and declare this a TD....that would raise eyebrows before people go to sleep.

I agree though, I am very worried for the middle texas coast, If it establishes an LLC tonight it could really ramp up in a hurry with the upper air support it has.

[miamicanes177]

With conditions quite favorable, I'm not sure what could keep this from explosive intensification into a hurricane overnight.

[ROCK]

I'm thinking people might wake up and we will already be getting some storms from the outer bands. Most don't know there is something approaching.

not that soon but by mid- afternoon maybe....looks like to me a Wed night, Thursday hit...

[Normandy]

The fact that recon found the center 1 degree north indicates that this is indeed undergoing center reformation imo....the disturbance is DEF not moving north.

[RL3AO]

They found the center.

Code: Select all

22:50:00Z   23.65N 90.50W   984.3 mb   194 m   1006.2 mb (29.71 inHg)   -   From 57° at 1 kts (From the ENE at ~ 1.1 mph)   25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)   25.2°C (~ 77.4°F)   2 kts (~ 2.3 mph)   -   -
22:50:30Z   23.63N 90.50W   984.1 mb   197 m   1006.3 mb (29.72 inHg)   -   From 320° at 1 kts (From the NW at ~ 1.1 mph)   25.6°C (~ 78.1°F)   25.4°C (~ 77.7°F)   2 kts (~ 2.3 mph)   -   -

[RL3AO]

The fact that recon found the center 1 degree north indicates that this is indeed undergoing center reformation imo....the disturbance is DEF not moving north.

Or maybe it moved in the past 4 hours?

[ROCK]

The fact that recon found the center 1 degree north indicates that this is indeed undergoing center reformation imo....the disturbance is DEF not moving north.

AFM came on last night and described this scenario to a tee. Center reformations. Cudos to AFM for that. Normandy, I agree not moving North but every degree of lat brings it up the coast some.....

[Normandy]

The disturbance isn't moving north....finding a center north of the previous fix indicates that the center is reforming.

[sevenleft]

It is possible that the sloppy, elongated circulation is being pulled towards that main convective blob. Is that where they located the "center" you guys are talking about?

[RL3AO]

It was northwest of the center they found 3 hours or so ago.

[Normandy]

Sevenleft,
Yes that is precisely what i am thinking....The convective blowup has sustained itself for a while and has actually been firing in that spot all day long, which suggest that the greatest convergence was in this area. Not surprising that the center is trying to relocate into this area.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It was northwest of the center they found 3 hours or so ago.

It is more north than northwest of it. The old center, I believe, was near 22.5N, 90W.

[ROCK]

Sevenleft,
Yes that is precisely what i am thinking....The convective blowup has sustained itself for a while and has actually been firing in that spot all day long, which suggest that the greatest convergence was in this area. Not surprising that the center is trying to relocate into this area.

if it sticks which I think it will then the game is on for tonight......going to be a long night ahead....

[Normandy]

In addition, the latest IR shot shows nice feeder bands developing south of this convection, which further indicates that the center is trying to establish itself near this convection.

[Sean in New Orleans]

Sweet Jesus in heaven, please have mercy on Louisiana and bring this system directly over New Orleans. We cannot take this heat anymore. We are pleading for relief from some type of depression or storm. Amen.

[Yankeegirl]

So since the center is more to the north, does that mean the path of it is going to be more to the north?

[Normandy]

Yankeegirl,
I figure this still is a mid-texas threat...I cant see it going further north than Matagorda.

[Praxus]

Sweet Jesus in heaven, please have mercy on Louisiana and bring this system directly over New Orleans. We cannot take this heat anymore. We are pleading for relief from some type of depression or storm. Amen.

Did you see the latest GFS run for Dean? Perhaps praying for a storm to hit Louisiana isn't the best idea right now!

[ROCK]

Yankeegirl,
I figure this still is a mid-texas threat...I cant see it going further north than Matagorda.

That is my thinking. Now that a center is becoming established reformations will not occur.