CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jimvb]

Looks like Dean on GFS 2007 Aug 14 18Z is a 2, similar to Rita except slightly to the east. The GFS outcome string is now:

1749799326451000001686512

It does not show any sign of settling down. The other models are showing all kinds of confusion as well. We really don't know where this storm is heading.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Hell I am beginning to see 3 eyes at this point!

[cycloneye]

756
WHXX04 KWBC 142326
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 18Z AUG 14

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 11.6 40.2 265./18.0
6 11.8 41.3 279./11.5
12 12.3 42.8 289./15.1
18 12.4 44.7 272./18.6
24 12.6 46.3 279./15.7
30 12.8 48.4 277./20.6
36 13.0 49.8 275./14.3
42 13.2 51.8 278./19.3
48 13.5 53.5 278./16.9
54 13.7 55.3 277./16.9
60 13.8 57.0 274./16.8
66 13.9 58.6 271./15.8
72 13.9 60.0 273./13.4
78 14.1 61.4 275./13.2
84 14.3 62.8 280./14.0
90 14.4 64.0 276./11.9
96 14.8 65.4 286./13.9
102 15.0 66.8 277./14.2
108 15.2 68.3 277./14.4
114 15.6 69.9 284./15.6
120 15.9 71.4 283./14.8
126 16.1 72.6 279./11.7


18z GFDL is Caribbean bound.

[Derek Ortt]

you cannot use an ADT or ODT on this type of system. It is desgined for hurricanes with eyes.

I have got T 3.5 before on waves using an ADT

[Cyclenall]

The following post is NOT an official forecast/product and should not be used as such. It's just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Second % chance for Tropical Storm Dean to become:

Tropical Depression 4: 100%
Tropical Storm Dean: 100%
Hurricane Dean: 80%
Category 2 Hurricane Dean: 72%
Category 3 Hurricane Dean: 66%
Category 4 Hurricane Dean: 60%
Category 5 Hurricane Dean: Totally Unknown %

[Decomdoug]

If correct, which most say things want be the same (praying not), Sabine Pass would take the eye of a storm 2 times in 3 years. WOW.

Hobe Sound Florida saw 3 eyes in 13 months (Frances, Jeanne, Wilma)

Yeah, try that on for size. I was here for all three of them. Frances and Jeanne within 3 weeks of each other. That's enough to fry a few nerves.

SouthFLTropics

Myself also and the backside of Wilma seemed to be the worst of the three!

[Sean in New Orleans]

Why the wild speculation over computer models? This is silly. Even Carl Arredondo says models have the storm going all over the place. He says we may have a better idea of steering patterns by Sunday, as they aren't even in place or have begun to set themselves up. I don't think computer models should be available to the general public outside of 3 days. It causes unnecessary speculation, guesses, thoughts, and fears amongst the general public. You want to guess about the storm? Stop looking at computer models and stare at satellite loops for hours on end from China to Africa until your eyes go blurry. After that you will likely have a better guess at where this system will be heading outside of 3 days.

[pojo]

we still start flying Dean on the 16th.

[Brent]

My head hurts.

Last night=Recurve
6z=Florida
12z=Middle TX
18z=TX/LA border

Predictions for 0z?

Dang, we have 8-10 more day's of this. 32-40 runs. Help!

I had to leave... I got in the car and drove around for a half-hour. I can't do this another week like the last 3-4 days.

[canegrl04]

My head hurts.

Last night=Recurve
6z=Florida
12z=Middle TX
18z=TX/LA border

Predictions for 0z?

Dang, we have 8-10 more day's of this. 32-40 runs. Help!

I had to leave... I got in the car and drove around for a half-hour. I can't do this another week like the last 3-4 days.

Bring out the spegetti models. Throw a piece of sphegetti on a map,and if it sticks,thats where Dean is going

[Wx_Warrior]

Looks to be uneasy until Sunday...Speculation on this board will make you want to talk to a shrink!

[Scorpion]

Big increase in convection on latest images

[wjs3]

Thanks, Derek. I stand corrected (though the ADT number IS plummeting, it's not relevant in a system this weak). nevertheless, my point stands. Satellite presentation is much worse now than earlier. Run a long loop at NASA?MFC. There was a big old blob/CDO like feature 12 hours ago....gone, and new convection is finally trying to fire again.

I've spoken my peace. Thanks for listening.

WJS3

[Aquawind]

Looks like some mid-level shear ahead...granted in the ~general direction as the motion of Dean.

[mgpetre]

I said the same about Dean's satellite presentation in the 91L forum earlier and was pretty much slammed to the floor for saying such things. I do agree with you that Dean does not look healthy compared to Sunday and Yesterday, but it will refire I'm sure. I just can't believe that if you put the two side by side right now that Dean would really be a stronger storm than 91L.

[HURAKAN]

Slideshow comparing between 2145Z and 2315Z.

[Scorpion]

Quiksat shows uncontaminated 50 kt vectors

[HURAKAN]

Quiksat shows uncontaminated 50 kt vectors

The NHC accepted that on the 5 PM advisory but because of the lack of convection it was kind of disregarded.

[sunnyday]

What does the "z" mean in 6z or 12z? And, where can I find the write-up by Joe B. about the storm today?
Thank you!

[cycloneye]

Quiksat shows uncontaminated 50 kt vectors

Link Please?