INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

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HeeBGBz
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#861 Postby HeeBGBz » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:01 pm

OK...back from picking the dogs up from being boarded for 2 weeks (after vacation).


I work at a kennel. We used to board dogs for one of the hurricane recon people. So whenever that dog came in, we knew something was up.

My work becomes crazy when a hurricane nears. Katrina was crazy. We had to turn so many people away who wanted to board pets for the storm. One lady came up about noon on the 28th needing a place for 8 dogs. We couldn't do it. We were packed.

I'll keep watching the gulf and Dean. Things could get lively next week. I had to go to Walmart today and noticed people with jugs and cases of water and such. There's an alertness amongst the locals. No frenzy, just people making a supply run just in case.
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#862 Postby Sean in New Orleans » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:01 pm

I think the system will ride around the high and land just to the S. of Galveston. This is just my two cents, of course. And I think it will be a Cat. 1.
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#863 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:01 pm

Can they issue tropical storm watches or warnings on an unclassified system?
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#864 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:02 pm

Can someone chime in on what is happening to the ridge to the North? Is it building, weakening or what?
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Re:

#865 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:02 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can they issue tropical storm watches or warnings on an unclassified system?


I don't think so because they would have by now if they could.

ALL INTERESTS IN
THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...INCLUDING THE COASTAL AREAS OF
TEXAS AND NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF THIS SYSTEM...AS TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS WOULD LIKELY BE
REQUIRED IMMEDIATELY UPON THE INITIATION OF ADVISORIES.
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Re:

#866 Postby Normandy » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:04 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can they issue tropical storm watches or warnings on an unclassified system?


They won't be issuing tropical storm warnings if this consolidates tonight. Theyll be issuing hurricane warnings. The upper air support is TOO good for this not to intensify quickly if it consolidates tonight.
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#867 Postby Bailey1777 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:04 pm

I see a special statement coming there is no way they let people go to bed tonight thinking there's nothing to worry about.
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#868 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:05 pm

They should allow warnings to be issued on waves or lows expected to develop...
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Re:

#869 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:06 pm

Bailey1777 wrote:I see a special statement coming there is no way they let people go to bed tonight thinking there's nothing to worry about.


Same here. They should go with a special advisory now for TD5, or an STDS for an 11 pm declaration...
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#870 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:07 pm

I will be shocked if a STDS is not issued soon. Even waiting until 10pm CT is getting late for some people.
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Re:

#871 Postby Steve Cosby » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:08 pm

CrazyC83 wrote:Can they issue tropical storm watches or warnings on an unclassified system?


I can't quote you when but I do remember that happening when it appeared that intensification was a given. It hasn't been real recent so it may be a different policy now.
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#872 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:10 pm

HouTXmetro wrote:Can someone chime in on what is happening to the ridge to the North? Is it building, weakening or what?


Over the next 48 hours it weakens slightly and slides to the east a little.
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#873 Postby whereverwx » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:11 pm

This image shows the cloud tops very well.
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Derek Ortt

#874 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:11 pm

A vortex message wa ssent back with Grace... something this thing does not yet have
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Re: Re:

#875 Postby CrazyC83 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:12 pm

Steve Cosby wrote:
CrazyC83 wrote:Can they issue tropical storm watches or warnings on an unclassified system?


I can't quote you when but I do remember that happening when it appeared that intensification was a given. It hasn't been real recent so it may be a different policy now.


Interesting..

Right now, I would have a Tropical Storm Warning for the Mexican coast from La Pesca to the border, and for the Texas coast from the border to Port Aransas.

I'd have a Tropical Storm Watch from Veracruz to La Pesca in Mexico and from Port Aransas to San Luis Pass in Texas.
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#876 Postby RL3AO » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:12 pm

Derek, do you think the NHC should initiate advisories tonight, even if it does not completely meet the NHC's standards to a tropical depression?
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#877 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:13 pm

from that image it looks like a small CDO is trying to develope over the center.....
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#878 Postby HouTXmetro » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:14 pm

Big Storms firing along the South Central Louisiana Coast as this system interacts with a stalled frontal Boundary. Looking like the effects could be widespread already. Not to mention the Coastal Flood Watches that will be issued.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/loop-avn.html
Last edited by HouTXmetro on Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:15 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#879 Postby Air Force Met » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:15 pm

Looks like recon is in the CUSP now...perhaps the LLC has jogged even further north?
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Derek Ortt

#880 Postby Derek Ortt » Tue Aug 14, 2007 7:17 pm

if there is no closed circulation, there should not be advisories. I do not want another Thunderstorm Fay from 2002 when no VDM was ever sent back
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