CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Windspeed]

Dean is now running as storm_3 on the hwrf model. It has also shifted Dean's track south but still bombs Dean over the eastern Caribbean:

[MWatkins]

The convection is coming...in fact looking at the IR imagery from 23:45Z it looks like has two convective bursts trying to wrap around the center...it is of course hard to tell that...we will see...

Could be the burst we saw earlier temporarily stabilized things...and now that canopy has been shed it is trying to burst again...

Agreed Derek...honestly the QScat imagery looks closer to a hurricane than that of a 35 knot storm.

MW

[Scorpion]

Ah ok thanks.

[Janie2006]

GMT = Greenwich Mean Time (standard time at the Greenwich Laboratory in London)= Universal Coordinated Time (UTC).

Zulu time (Z) is always used following radio time transmissions. Standard time in the Eastern US time zone is Z minus 5 hours and you can take it from there. For example, Alaska would be Z minus 9 hours. Whenever you're operating with daylight savings time, you just move it up by an hour.

[deltadog03]

Can someone tell me what data goes into the HWRF?? Is it the same data that goes into the GFs? My point is that in the past the EURO has been very good with track once it finally catches on to the system.

[Brent]

WOW! That is AMAZING! Looks like a hurricane is right...

Where are all the "it's dead" people?

[Windspeed]

Can someone tell me what data goes into the HWRF?? Is it the same data that goes into the GFs? My point is that in the past the EURO has been very good with track once it finally catches on to the system.

The HWRF is a cyclone model based on the WRF (Weather Research and Forecast Model) started as a joint research between universities. I may be wrong on this, but I think it may incorporate some GFS moisture and plot data, but I am not entirely sure. It is a separate model though.

http://www.wrf-model.org/plots/realtime_main.php

You can read up on the sounding data here:

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wrf/


Edit: Here's the full description...

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model is a next-generation mesocale numerical weather prediction system designed to serve both operational forecasting and atmospheric research needs. It features multiple dynamical cores, a 3-dimensional variational (3DVAR) data assimilation system, and a software architecture allowing for computational parallelism and system extensibility. WRF is suitable for a broad spectrum of applications across scales ranging from meters to thousands of kilometers.

The effort to develop WRF has been a collaborative partnership, principally among the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) and the Forecast Systems Laboratory (FSL), the Air Force Weather Agency (AFWA), the Naval Research Laboratory, Oklahoma University, and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA). WRF allows researchers the ability to conduct simulations reflecting either real data or idealized configurations. WRF provides operational forecasting a model that is flexible and efficient computationally, while offering the advances in physics, numerics, and data assimilation contributed by the research community.

WRF has a rapidly growing community of users, and workshops and tutorials are held each year at NCAR. WRF is currently in operational use at NCEP. This site provides information on the WRF effort and its organization, references to projects and forecasting involving WRF, and links to the WRF users' page, real-time applications, and WRF-related events.

[SaveNola]

deleted

[deltadog03]

sweet thanks!!!!! I guess my point is that the GFDL will wobble back and forth with the gfs since its usually has a 3000 mile cone..(long term anyway)

[hurricanetrack]

We could sell a lot of "flip flops" on this board! One day it's going to MX and TX. The next, Long Island, the next NC, the next New Orleans. Then there is the "wow! look at that, it's going to be a monster" followed by "oh well, another Chantal, Chris, Debby scenario". Then, "wow! it's back again!"

It seems that 2005 and all of its "go" storms have jaded some folks and we (they) have forgotten that tropical cyclones are delicate pieces of the atmosphere. Subtle changes can have HUGE influences on their behavior, track and overall intensity. Be patient. While the standard disclaimer of "we don't want to see death and destruction" always applies, we do want a nice hurricane to track. Give it time. Look at the clues that are laid out for us. They all point to a gradual ramp up in strength followed by BAM! Away we go....

....or it will be an open wave tomorrow morning

[jacindc]

Anytime that anyone makes a prediction this far out as to where a hurricane is going to come ashore, I immediately look at the poster's profile, and I'd say 9 times out of 10 the poster *just happens* to be predicting landfall in their home state.

Go figure!

(I'm definitely not predicting a Chesapeake Bay landfall for Dean )

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

Is the board working ok? I noticed no new posts for over 10 minutes.

[cycloneye]

352
WHXX01 KWBC 150040
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0040 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070815 0000 070815 1200 070816 0000 070816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 11.9N 41.5W 12.7N 45.1W 13.4N 49.3W 14.0N 54.1W
BAMD 11.9N 41.5W 12.3N 45.0W 13.0N 48.5W 13.6N 52.0W
BAMM 11.9N 41.5W 12.5N 45.3W 12.9N 49.5W 13.3N 54.0W
LBAR 11.9N 41.5W 12.1N 45.1W 12.7N 49.2W 13.0N 53.4W
SHIP 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS 65KTS
DSHP 45KTS 51KTS 58KTS 65KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070817 0000 070818 0000 070819 0000 070820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 14.7N 58.9W 14.9N 67.0W 14.3N 72.4W 14.9N 74.4W
BAMD 14.2N 55.1W 15.5N 60.9W 17.4N 66.6W 20.1N 72.7W
BAMM 13.4N 58.0W 13.2N 64.5W 13.9N 68.5W 16.6N 72.1W
LBAR 13.3N 57.3W 14.5N 63.6W 15.3N 67.9W .0N .0W
SHIP 71KTS 88KTS 95KTS 95KTS
DSHP 71KTS 88KTS 95KTS 80KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 11.9N LONCUR = 41.5W DIRCUR = 270DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
LATM12 = 11.8N LONM12 = 38.6W DIRM12 = 270DEG SPDM12 = 18KT
LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 34.2W
WNDCUR = 45KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 35KT
CENPRS = 1000MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 45NM RD34SE = 45NM RD34SW = 30NM RD34NW = 45NM

$$
NNNN


45kts and more slower 15kts.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Does the 45kts indicated by the above model
mean an upgrade to 50 mph at 11 pm?

[Scorpion]

Yes

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Thank you.
The structure is very impressive as many have mentioned.
Convection firing should lead to some intensification:
Heat Content will increase to the west:
http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot.html

[MusicCityMan]

So Dean's strengthening a bit here to 50 mph? Maybe a hurricane by Thursday?

[JonathanBelles]

I didnt expect that, I was leaning toward 40mph still or 35mph.

[MusicCityMan]

Convection does appear to be trying to refire around it. If it slows down some.. LOOK OUT..

personally I think it's going to be either a Fla or Carolinas' storm.. but we shall see..

[Scorpion]

Speed does not matter...