CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[storms in NC]

Is the board working ok? I noticed no new posts for over 10 minutes.

Kids went to Bed? or to eat? Mom and dad are home?

[MusicCityMan]

If it goes too fast tho.. wouldn't the center get away from the convection, or the other way around and it'd become disorganized?

[Scorpion]

That's only if the relative shear is high.. there have been many major hurricanes traveling at over 20 kts

[deltadog03]

actually SPEED DOES matter...not only for strengthening BUT also future track

[storms in NC]

Speed does not matter...

Yes it does to a point. as you see it was going 21+ today then at 5 it said 18 so yes speed does matter.JMO

[Brent]

Is the board working ok? I noticed no new posts for over 10 minutes.

Kids went to Bed? or to eat? Mom and dad are home?

That was good. I'm trying to relax before the 11pm advisory(and chat).

[storms in NC]

That's only if the relative shear is high.. there have been many major hurricanes traveling at over 20 kts

True but before they came a hurricane they were slow moving then after that they got speed

[MusicCityMan]

I'll be asleep for 11pm and then racing around the house for the 5 am one before I go to work tomorrow lol..

[Blown Away]

Speed does not matter...

My wife says speed does matter, oh sorry your talking about Dean.
Looking better on IR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[HurricaneMaster_PR]

BAMD moves the system closer to Puerto Rico in this latest run...If the system continues to intensify and tomorrow reaches hurricane strength and its movement continues to be near 15 mph, that could result in a more WNW track and change the forecast slightly to the right...Lets see how this evolves...

[storms in NC]

I'll be asleep for 11pm and then racing around the house for the 5 am one before I go to work tomorrow lol..

Hey I will be going very soon. I am old so I going with the chickens

[storms in NC]

Speed does not matter...

My wife says speed does matter, oh sorry your talking about Dean.
Looking better on IR.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[ALhurricane]

That quikscat scan should definitely turn some heads and be a lesson that one downward trend in IR satellite does not tell the whole story in a storm's structure, especially in the organization phase. This current convective burst may be the one to really get this storm in motion.

No surprise the 00z models were initialized at 45kts given the quikscat scan. A very impressive LLC.

[Evil Jeremy]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ’s Forecasts
TS Dean
Advisory 3
9:00PMEDT

After a day of resisting strong easterly shear, Tropical Storm Dean is starting to intensify. The latest computer model runs state that Tropical Storm Dean is stronger than earlier today, and that is also apparent on satellite. The current intensity therefore has been raised to 50 MPH with 1000 MB pressure.

TS Dean should continue racing across the Atlantic Ocean, but at a slightly slower speed that of today and yesterday, over the next few days, before turning WNW into the Caribbean.

A recent quick scat pass over TS Dean showed a well organized storm, along with strong winds, also shown in the computer models.

TS Dean is starting to experience an effect called the “Diurnal Maximum”. This effect will cause cold cloud tops to form overnight, which could prompt further strengthening.

Dean is currently heading west at about 20 MPH. Dean has been gradually slowing down over the day, and that process of slowing down should continue through the next few days with a continued westward motion.

The computer models tonight are mainly suggesting a path through the Caribbean, with the storm being below Hispaniola in 5 days. My forecast cone will be adjusted to as such.

Tomorrow is going to be a very important day for Tropical Storm Dean. While it is not likely, there is a slight chance that Dean may become a hurricane tomorrow, but it will likely be on Friday that Dean becomes 2007’s first Atlantic hurricane. Even if Dean doesn’t become a hurricane tomorrow, its intensity will still be very important. The faster it intensifies, the more likely it will take a more northward path.

I have pinpointed the center of Tropical Storm Dean at 11.8N and 41.6W for this Advisory.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

INITIAL 50 MPH
12HR 55 MPH
24HR 65 MPH
48HR 75 MPH
72HR 85 MPH
96HR 95 MPH
120HR 105 MPH

(Cone Graphic Coming Soon)

[cycloneye]

BAMD moves the system closer to Puerto Rico in this latest run...If the system continues to intensify and tomorrow reaches hurricane strength and its movement continues to be near 15 mph, that could result in a more WNW track and change the forecast slightly to the right...Lets see how this evolves...

Agree with that.

[sweetpea]

I hope I am doing this right, just found this off of another website.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/real ... _amsub.gif

[Ola]

That quikscat scan should definitely turn some heads and be a lesson that one downward trend in IR satellite does not tell the whole story in a storm's structure, especially in the organization phase. This current convective burst may be the one to really get this storm in motion.

No surprise the 00z models were initialized at 45kts given the quikscat scan. A very impressive LLC.

Same lesson should be applied to the opossite. Remember 99L (I think it was that #)? That thing went through the whole atlantic and caribbean with impressive convection but no LLC. And a lot of people were going crazy not believeing that the NHC would not upgrade it.

[ALhurricane]

That quikscat scan should definitely turn some heads and be a lesson that one downward trend in IR satellite does not tell the whole story in a storm's structure, especially in the organization phase. This current convective burst may be the one to really get this storm in motion.

No surprise the 00z models were initialized at 45kts given the quikscat scan. A very impressive LLC.

Same lesson should be applied to the opossite. Remember 99L (I think it was that #)? That thing went through the whole atlantic and caribbean with impressive convection but no LLC. And a lot of people were going crazy not believeing that the NHC would not upgrade it.

100% agree. The same holds true in both cases. You must always look at the overall picture.

[Bgator]

I wanna see the 00z GFS with the new intensity and speed put in there...maybe it will change something.

[Scorpion]

I remember how Wilma how an astounding circulation while it still was a TD. Not trying to make comparisons but when this gets into a better environment it should become a hurricane in no time.