INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[HURAKAN]

[ROCK]

Dr. Steve Lyons just said "nothing is developing" in the Gulf, citing 13 mph winds near the "core". I don't know about him sometimes.

I think I am going to vomit....

[cpdaman]

the only logical thing i can think of for lack of an upgrade is the NHC's belief that this WILL NOT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY

i mean WHAT big Preperations need to be made for a weak-mod tropical storm

they may say you know what we have a borderline depression (actually i think it meets criteria and will be upgraded at 11) but anyway if we don't name it till later, big deal , all we think this will amount to is a weak tropical storm (at least per their "secret forecast" that came out on the top of page 30 in the thread) so
it's not like we see this being a hurricane (that's what their early non upgrade tells me)

[Sean in New Orleans]

It doesn't really matter what the "big guys," say....a storm is forming in the GOM. It may not be together at all levels, but, it will be, IMO. Look, we all know the GOM as good as anyone this time of the year. Geez...it's so ripe for development it's downright scary...and a high is developing over the Gulf, as well. Come on...doesn't 1+1=2? I think so....

[ROCK]

the only logical thing i can think of for lack of an upgrade is the NHC's belief that this WILL NOT RAPIDLY INTENSIFY

i mean WHAT big Preperations need to be made for a weak-mod tropical storm

they may say you know what we have a borderline depression (actually i think it meets criteria and will be upgraded at 11) but anyway if we don't name it till later, big deal , all we think this will amount to is a weak tropical storm (at least per their "secret forecast" that came out on the top of page 30 in the thread) so
it's not like we see this being a hurricane (that's what their early non upgrade tells me)

I got family near Freeport in a beach house. I told them to head down there and pick up loose outdoor furniture etc......thats about it....

[cpdaman]

wow lyons said that

i think it's clear then, their indications give this a very low chance of amounting to much, never mind a hurricane, that is why they are in no hurry to upgrade to td earlier

[LSU2001]

looks like a pretty strong "Nothing" to my very untrained eyes

Tim

[btangy]

I guess we should trust them...if the NHC is good at one thing its intensity forecasts.

Well, good is a relative term. Intensity forecasts are pretty atrocious overall, especially when looking at the improvements made over the past 15 years, which is almost nothing.

[RL3AO]

Well, good is a relative term. Intensity forecasts are pretty atrocious overall, especially when looking at the improvements made over the past 15 years, which is almost nothing.

As a group, the NHC are the best in the world but they aren't that good. If they don't upgrade this at 11 because they don't think it would rapidly strengthen, than that is a mistake IMO.

[mgpetre]

I do know that if this thing happens to blow up over night and even begins to frighten the Houston Metro area, some heads are going to roll for not getting out some word earlier. Even a moderate TS will cause huge problems with tomorrow being the middle of the work week and people being unprepared... I dread getting into traffic tomorrow!! Some trying to just do their normal work thing while others are doing last minute preparation... This could get as bad as Rita simply from a metropolitan logistics standpoint.


BTW, are there any QuikScat passes of this thing available recently?

[sevenleft]

This could get as bad as Rita simply from a metropolitan logistics standpoint.

No, it won't. It'll be rainy. I'm pretty sure it rains in Houston quite often, and that it'll be like most other heavy rain scenarios.

[lrak]

its still moving West according to the hi res satellite loop.

http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

[ROCK]

This could get as bad as Rita simply from a metropolitan logistics standpoint.

No, it won't. It'll be rainy. I'm pretty sure it rains in Houston quite often, and that it'll be like most other heavy rain scenarios.

I am guess you have never been to the west end of Galveston that has no sea wall. My family lives down there, with two ways out. They had no idea what was out in the GOM until I called them this afternoon.

[Kludge]

Dr. Steve Lyons just said "nothing is developing" in the Gulf, citing 13 mph winds near the "core". I don't know about him sometimes.

Dr. Steve is probably following this thread tonight, and will likely get quite a rush when he realizes that real tropical enthusiasts are still actually watching the McWeather Show.

[Wx_Warrior]

Could this do anything to a future track of Dean?

[lrak]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

[LSU2001]

This could get as bad as Rita simply from a metropolitan logistics standpoint.

No, it won't. It'll be rainy. I'm pretty sure it rains in Houston quite often, and that it'll be like most other heavy rain scenarios.

I think he is talking about traffic closings etc. not about the threat of damage like from Rita. Sometimes people react out of proportion to the threat. IF anything develops quickly and threatens the Houston area, many people will wake up to an intensifying storm with only hours until landfall and COULD panic.
JMHO,
Tim

[sevenleft]

This could get as bad as Rita simply from a metropolitan logistics standpoint.

No, it won't. It'll be rainy. I'm pretty sure it rains in Houston quite often, and that it'll be like most other heavy rain scenarios.

I think he is talking about traffic closings etc. not about the threat of damage like from Rita. Sometimes people react out of proportion to the threat. IF anything develops quickly and threatens the Houston area, many people will wake up to an intensifying storm with only hours until landfall and COULD panic.
JMHO,
Tim

I know what he meant, and my response still stands...

[Extremeweatherguy]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

I don't see a west movement ATM. I see a very slow WNW or NW movement.

[Bailey1777]

Pro-Mets only please, why do you think this system is being so down played. Is there anything you can see at this point that would tell you this will never be more than what it is right now?