INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

[CrazyC83]

This one is coming in fast...I think a TS by 4 am CDT (if not a special advisory) and landfall tomorrow...

[SouthFloridawx]

yep.. 05L
BEGIN
NHC_ATCFSVR1
invest_al052007.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
200708150154
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
FIVE, AL, L, , , , , 05, 2007, TD, O, 2007081312, 9999999999, , , , , , WARNING, 1, AL052007
AL, 05, 2007081218, , BEST, 0, 201N, 830W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2007081300, , BEST, 0, 206N, 838W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2007081306, , BEST, 0, 212N, 849W, 25, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 05, 2007081312, , BEST, 0, 216N, 859W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 130, 40, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, D,
AL, 05, 2007081318, , BEST, 0, 219N, 869W, 25, 1008, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1011, 130, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2007081400, , BEST, 0, 221N, 878W, 25, 1006, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 130, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2007081406, , BEST, 0, 223N, 887W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 130, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2007081412, , BEST, 0, 228N, 895W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 75, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2007081418, , BEST, 0, 232N, 900W, 25, 1007, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,
AL, 05, 2007081500, , BEST, 0, 236N, 907W, 25, 1006, TD, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 175, 60, 35, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M,

[lrak]

i get your meaning, yet I'm seeing an ULL low make an easy way down the stream right now straight towards land? Plus its got some High pressure pushing it away from LA and FL, right? I don't get this Houston/Louisiana talk?

[lrak]

i type to slow Sean.

[Brent]

I don't like the looks of this one.

[Stratosphere747]

Were about to get a disco with the advisory that will shed some light on movement. Plus I'll bet we have some watches/warnings hoisted as well.

[Stormcenter]

i get your meaning, yet I'm seeing an ULL low make an easy way down the stream right now straight towards land? Plus its got some High pressure pushing it away from LA and FL, right? I don't get this Houston/Louisiana talk?

Do you think it's headed toward Corpus Christi?

[HollynLA]

i get your meaning, yet I'm seeing an ULL low make an easy way down the stream right now straight towards land? Plus its got some High pressure pushing it away from LA and FL, right? I don't get this Houston/Louisiana talk?

From I've been reading, everyone is in agreement that this is going to Texas. I've not seen anyone claim it's going to LA?

[miamicanes177]

14/2345 UTC 24.5N 90.5W T2.0/2.0

This supports the upgrade by the NHC

[Thunder44]

920
WHXX01 KWBC 150148
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
0148 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL052007) 20070815 0000 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070815 0000 070815 1200 070816 0000 070816 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 23.6N 90.7W 24.5N 92.8W 25.4N 94.7W 26.4N 96.6W
BAMD 23.6N 90.7W 24.7N 92.8W 25.9N 94.9W 26.8N 96.8W
BAMM 23.6N 90.7W 24.6N 92.7W 25.7N 94.7W 26.7N 96.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070817 0000 070818 0000 070819 0000 070820 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 27.4N 98.4W 29.3N 101.5W 31.2N 103.7W 32.6N 104.3W
BAMD 27.9N 98.6W 29.6N 101.2W 31.2N 101.1W 30.9N 100.9W
BAMM 27.8N 98.5W 29.6N 101.6W 31.4N 103.1W 32.2N 103.4W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 23.6N LONCUR = 90.7W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 7KT
LATM12 = 22.8N LONM12 = 89.5W DIRM12 = 307DEG SPDM12 = 7KT
LATM24 = 22.1N LONM24 = 87.8W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 60NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1006MB OUTPRS = 1010MB OUTRAD = 175NM SDEPTH = M
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM

$$
NNNN


The reran some of the 0z models again. It still says "Disturbance Invest" But invest title has changed to "ALO52007". I guess the NHC is changing the mind.

[SouthFloridawx]

On NOAA's site it is, classified as a tropical depression..

ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/tcweb/

[JonathanBelles]

Its on CIMSS too.

[shelby]

Is this thing going to slam against the high and move west or is the center below the circulation which is shown on the infra - new just asking

[Sean in New Orleans]

Is this thing going to slam against the high and move west or is the center below the circulation which is shown on the infra - new just asking

Welcome! You're reading of the high is good, but, I see clouds wrapping around the high towards Galveston and I believe the system will eventually follow those clouds.....

[Javlin]

i get your meaning, yet I'm seeing an ULL low make an easy way down the stream right now straight towards land? Plus its got some High pressure pushing it away from LA and FL, right? I don't get this Houston/Louisiana talk?

From I've been reading, everyone is in agreement that this is going to Texas. I've not seen anyone claim it's going to LA?

Oh it's going to TX just MAYBE? a little further N thats where all the upper cloud flow is going for right now anyway.The Houston area if my geography is right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

its a perfect circle moving West right now.

I don't see a west movement ATM. I see a very slow WNW or NW movement.

Ok I did the ruler technique and put it on the lcd and watched the white part of the looped gif. It went straight WEST.

Do it yourself, set it on medium and 12 runs. It will move the highest cloud tops in that blob due West.
http://www.ghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

I respectfully still disagree. I think you are being fooled by the expanding convection and assuming this has a west motion. However, according to the NHC this is moving WNW or NW. We probably will not be able to tell for sure until the 11pm advisory or until the visible is available in the morning, but I just do not think this is moving west. Also, regardless of the direction, one thing is pretty clear...it is not moving that fast right now.

[KatDaddy]

For a no-name no-TD it has quite a CDO

[sevenleft]

Landfall Thursday Morning in the Corpus Christi-Matagorda Island area..50-60MPH TS...rain maker for points north and east.

This should be a pretty easy one to call.

<insert disclaimer here>

[Blown Away]

Steve Lyons just said 91L really has not organized. It has a very broad circulation and maybe a LLC will form near the recent convection burst. He said there most likely will not be enough time for significant intensification and Texas will likely get heavy rain and gusty winds. Possible TD only.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Steve Lyons just said 91L really has not organized. It has a very broad circulation and maybe a LLC will form near the recent convection burst. He said there most likely will not be enough time for significant intensification and Texas will likely get heavy rain and gusty winds. Possible TD only.

I don't think this will be a TD only...the upper level conditions are too good. This looks to probably become at least a weak TS at landfall.