Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[MiamiensisWx]

[drezee]

ready to go:

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE HAS INITIATED ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION FIVE...LOCATED 425 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE
TEXAS

[Duddy]

They are forecasting it to go farther South than we are "forecasting".

[Aric Dunn]

THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING THE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO DID FIND A SMALL CIRCULATION
CENTER...BUT IT WAS NOT QUITE WELL-ENOUGH DEFINED TO WARRANT A
FORMAL VORTEX MESSAGE. SINCE THAT TIME...THE SYSTEM HAS BEEN
MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER...WITH
SOME EXPANSION OF THE CONVECTION SOUTHWESTWARD. BASED ON THIS
TREND...I AM PRESUMING THE CENTER HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER
DEFINED AND ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/7. THE DEPRESSION IS SOUTH OF A
MID-LEVEL HIGH CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. MODEL GUIDANCE
RESPONDS TO THIS SYNOPTIC PATTERN WITH A FAIRLY STRAIGHT WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. THERE IS CURRENTLY SOME SOUTHERLY SHEAR OVER
THE CYCLONE...AND GIVEN THE STRONG CONVECTIVE ASYMMETRY...I EXPECT
SOME REFORMATION OR APPARENT NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION OVER THE
NEXT 12-24 HOURS UNTIL THE CENTER BECOMES A LITTLE BETTER DEFINED.
CONSEQUENTLY...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER THAN AND TO
THE RIGHT OF THE OBJECTIVE GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY EARLY IN THE
FORECAST.

UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE STILL NOT FAVORABLE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT...
BUT LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE PRESENT SHEARING PATTERN
WILL BE REPLACED BY A MORE FAVORABLE FLOW OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AS THE UPPER-LEVEL LOW OVER SOUTH TEXAS MOVES RAPIDLY OUT OF THE
WAY. THE BROAD CIRCULATION...LIMITED CONVECTION...AND LIMITED
UPPER-OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT ALONG THE PROJECTED PATH ARGUE FOR ONLY
MODEST STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

[cheezyWXguy]

I know it doesnt have a CDO...thats why I put it in quotation marks. It only looks like it. It could eventually become the CDO, but it is not yet, as its not common in TD's.

[canetracker]

[Sanibel]

Another round dot burst like that rain system that almost formed earlier in July but moved inland.

That burst shows some energy.

[CrazyC83]

Good move, as the watches are needed more than anything.

[jaxfladude]

Thread name:
INVEST 91L -Discussions,Analysis and Imagery
Thread started by:
Chacor

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Now locked
That was all before it was called a TD#5 on Aug. 14th at 11pm edt....
Hate too see what will be the final numbers for this thread(s)(for TD#5/TS Erin)

[lrak]

NORTHWEST ok didn't have to highlight it LOL

its coming to CC TX.

[stormchazer]

The Western GOM could end up with a 2 for 1 special if models pan out on Dean. Hopefully that does not occur. I got family in Gulfport, MS.

[Aric Dunn]

[jaxfladude]

Prayers for Texas and ......rainfall amounts that is(in Mexico mudslides and the like).....

[lrak]

looks like choppy surf conditions. Onshore and wet.

[Stormcenter]

Prayers for Texas and ......rainfall amounts that is(in Mexico mudslides and the like).....

I don't think it will that bad but you never know with these systems.

[Stormcenter]

I just don't see the center being that far west or north right now. Oh well who am I to the question the NHC.

[jasons2k]

The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!

[Aric Dunn]

Latest

quickscat

[southerngale]

The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!

That's what the models show?

[Kludge]

The left bend in the NHC forecast is the opposite of what I would expect from a deepening system. Also with the ridge possible weakening and shifteing a bit east, I wonder what the reasoning is ?!?!

It seems to go against climatology and current conditions alright. But that's okay by me...the last thing I want is 103 degrees and no electricity. CC can have this one.