Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Stratosphere747]

Tuned in real quick to get Doc's feel on this, and Ch 11 lead the broadcast saying that recon was going back out in 3hrs?

[Sanibel]

Rain pounding the roof here kicked up by TD5 agitating local atmosphere.

[mgpetre]

This is a very strange thing... what level winds are the QScat images supposed to represent? Directly at the surface? If that's the case and they are right, then the Satellite views really have been fooling us today.

[cpdaman]

the time stamp in the quikscat always throws me for a loop

promets any take on quikscat

[Normandy]

QSCAT represents surface winds....Im baffled. If that is correct then well.....LOL.

[Ed Mahmoud]

RE comment in Discussion about low oceanic heat content- the water is almost 90ºF (32ºC), and while it isn't that deep off the Texas coast, how much upwelling is a tropical depression going to cause?

[Kludge]

I'm not sure what Gulf water temps are in the path, but the air temps are around 100 degrees (higher in the Houston area). I'm not skilled enough, nor had enough time to follow these threads, so I have no prediction on path. It just seems to me that that without unfavorable conditions, this system will strengthen, although it should hit land before becoming a serious concern.

Frankly, the NWS path projection puts it into a few widely scattered ranches and hunting lodges. The deer, quail, dove, and antelope probably won't mind the respite from the heat.

Bret blew a few cows around.

Too easy. I'm not going to touch this one.

[mgpetre]

Ok, so let's assume the QScat Aric posted is correct. Is it possible that we could wind up with twin TDs out of this? One just west of Yucatan and then the one we think is in the middle of the GOM?

[Extremeweatherguy]

notice that the Qscat provided on this thread is overlaid over an old satellite image. That probably means that it is a few hours old (at least).

[canetracker]

Tuned in real quick to get Doc's feel on this, and Ch 11 lead the broadcast saying that recon was going back out in 3hrs?

If this is true, that should be really interesting to see what they find considering the quikscat vs sat presentation

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ok, so let's assume the QScat Aric posted is correct. Is it possible that we could wind up with twin TDs out of this? One just west of Yucatan and then the one we think is in the middle of the GOM?

Quikstat was hrs ago!

[Normandy]

Ok, so let's assume the QScat Aric posted is correct. Is it possible that we could wind up with twin TDs out of this? One just west of Yucatan and then the one we think is in the middle of the GOM?

Well, if that QSCAT is correct, then no development out of what is being called TD 5 should be expected....The focus SHOULD be on the circulation near the Yucatan.....Im dumbfounded that QSCAT cant be right.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Once again...that Qscat is old. You can tell b/c the satellite overlay is not recent and looks to have been taken many hours ago.

[Normandy]

That would make sense EWG, even still it could be a few hours old and im still amazed that there is a closed LLC that defined near the yucatan.

[cpdaman]

i bet the quikscat is very old like 12 plus hours ( i think quikscat is updated what once, twice a day max?)

the NRL site may have overlaid this image from two hours ago over the latest quikscat (which is even older)

maybe we can check it against recon observations

[Aric Dunn]

Aric that Qscat shows no closed circulation....at all....just a sharp trough.
The closd circulation it does show is hundreds of miles south of where they initialized TD 5

recon found a closed circulation..there is no doubt that it has one.

i have seen it quite often .. it could be anything from a bad pass to just a bad image due to a over lay problem who knows


maybe some mets can shed some light on it?

i have seen this before though it screws up on the circulation but the wind speed can be accurate.

but who knows

would not put too much money on it but it could be screwed up

and i was told by my very good friend who has been doing this for a while he told that the winds are probably ok but the circulation is obviously wrong..

[Aric Dunn]

Ok, so let's assume the QScat Aric posted is correct. Is it possible that we could wind up with twin TDs out of this? One just west of Yucatan and then the one we think is in the middle of the GOM?

Well, if that QSCAT is correct, then no development out of what is being called TD 5 should be expected....The focus SHOULD be on the circulation near the Yucatan.....Im dumbfounded that QSCAT cant be right.

I was told not to focus on the where the circ is

[Aric Dunn]

That would make sense EWG, even still it could be a few hours old and im still amazed that there is a closed LLC that defined near the yucatan.

read the times each tells you the different times

one for the sat image the other for the quickscat pass

[Extremeweatherguy]

yeah, I would not get worked up over the circulation thing. The recon found west winds and a closed low, and thus that is what it is. the Qscat is either old or is wrong (I personally believe it is a blend of both), and I would rely on what the NHC is saying, not what the Qscat is saying.

[Normandy]

Well I'll discard the QSCAT then until a met verifies it to be totally accurate....

In other news, new convection is starting to fire more N of the current blob (which is warming).