CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[destruction92]

It will be VERY INTERESTING to see how TD5/Erin affects the trough supposed to affect the Southeast this weekend. Erin might get picked up by it and cause further erosion to the Atlantic Ridge causing Dean to turn earlier.


...EASTERN UNITED STATES...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SLICE ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL...DRY...CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST...WITH SOME COLDER SPOTS IN THE 30S.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[DESTRUCTION5]

Dean does seem to be moving ever so slightly north of due west...Thoughts?

As forecasted..

[Sanibel]

I think the dry SAL air still in the ridge (remember it dried the ITCZ out completely) is keeping Dean at bay for now. Progress towards warmer SST's over the next 15 degrees of longitude should help Dean overcome it.

TWC had that jog N as well in its track. Could be a wobble, could be beginning of lift N.


Florida not out of this picture by any means.

[CrazyC83]

It will be VERY INTERESTING to see how TD5/Erin affects the trough supposed to affect the Southeast this weekend. Erin might get picked up by it and cause further erosion to the Atlantic Ridge causing Dean to turn earlier.


...EASTERN UNITED STATES...

A VIGOROUS COLD FRONT WILL SLICE ALL THE WAY INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN
UNITED STATES THIS PERIOD...WITH COOL...DRY...CONTINENTAL POLAR
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE. LOWS SUNDAY MORNING WILL BE MORE
REMINISCENT OF FALL THAN LATE SUMMER ACROSS THE INTERIOR
NORTHEAST...WITH SOME COLDER SPOTS IN THE 30S.


Source:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

My thinking too but it will be too late for the islands and that would threaten Bermuda and Atlantic Canada...

[windstorm99]

Dean does seem to be moving ever so slightly north of due west...Thoughts?

As forecasted..

And the relocation of the center?I'll be interested in seeing models in responce to that.

[Blown Away]

Dean does seem to be moving ever so slightly north of due west...Thoughts?

I'm not saying SFL, but w/ rapid intesification I see Dean going through PR and N of Hispanola , IMO.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

0Z GFS has started

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_000l.gif

[windstorm99]

The 00z model runs aren't going to take the new center fix into account as they were already initialized before. We are going to have to wait for the 06Z runs in the morning.

[Wthrman13]

Holy boundary condition problems Batman! I'm referring to the vertical stripe of spurious precipitation on the left edge of the domain. Such problems could be caused by improper forcing from the outer domain, so that the model solution on the inner domain does not match at the boundary with the outer domain. It could also be from waves reflecting off the artificial model boundary. On the other hand, it only seems to show up in the precip field on those graphics, so it could just be a display issue, and not an actual model issue. At any rate, I would think the folks running the model would be aware of it (at least I hope).

Yea, when I first saw this, I was quite concerned too, but I think it's a display issue. If you had precip like that for real along the fine mesh, probably would have serious problems with the model. I would think that any major BC issues with the nested grid were solved in the development phase of the model.

Hey Brian, good to hear from you! Yes, I agree that any BC problems resulting from, say, code bugs would have almost certainly been rooted out already, but I was thinking more along the lines of a possible configuration issue. Heaven knows that I've let improper configuration issues go for a long time before detecting them in some of my research simulations!

Again, though, probably a display issue, like you said.

[Tommedic]

Personnaly, I think that the models need more data as to actual center location and then we may all need to look at projections slower and further north. Also, if it becomes major hurricane before it hits islands, it may tend to help decide its own path. Of course this my humble opinion as an untrained individual.

[BensonTCwatcher]

Wow, much stronger circ than I thought by this time. I figured the dry air would have slowed the organization more. I yield to the "fist" theory

[ekal]

Interesting QuikSCAT image.

1) Strongest winds are in the southwest quadrant.

2) For a system with a rather paltry convective envelope, that is a fairly expansive windfield. Probably caused by the tight pressure gradient with the strong surface ridge to the north.

Now that the northeasterly wind shear is beginning to relax, the only check on intensification is the stable air to the north, which is not likely to be a terrible hindrance. Let's hope Dean spends as much of its lifetime as possible over water, because a ferocious hurricane is in the making.

[weatherman21]

GOES IR at 2:45Z:


GOES IR on a Larger Scale at 2:45Z:

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

12 Hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_012l.gif

[CrazyC83]

I'd say 55 kt for Dean now. Could be at or near hurricane intensity at 5 am...

[windstorm99]

12 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_012l.gif

Hey KFDM any thoughts on the center being relocated to the north?Unfotunately we are going to have to wait for the 06z models to see if there's anything differerent with the models.

[Javlin]

The QS shows Dean right below 12N,maybe old,but .4N that 24 miles in the last 5hrs?if correct should not play with the models much.What that put the motion @276*.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

24 HR GFS

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

24 Hr 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_024l.gif