Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Aric Dunn]

But a pro met may want to chime in to possibly quell the speculations

my source says the winds are probably ok

[DESTRUCTION5]

I still say Brnsville south..I can see a SW move tomorrow..

[Aric Dunn]

now this is the FNMOC quickscat
the other one was NCEP









this is the one I posted earlier
from ncep

[Sanibel]

QSCAT: You're forgetting recon already placed the center closer to the convection seen on satellite. - Aric sharpen up on your scientific methodology.

Only question here is intensity.

[Air Force Met]

the time stamp in the quikscat always throws me for a loop

promets any take on quikscat

I'll take a stab at it and then I'm off to bed...so if you have a question...I probably won't see it

I'm baffled as well...but looking back at the recon obs there was a well defined low with north and west winds 1 hour before this image was taken. I can't imagine that the low is just gone. If you look back at the 91 thread you see I made a comment about recon flying "the cusp." That comment was made at 0015Z (the qscat is from 0028Z) I assumed that was what was happening.

Here is the comment: "Looks like recon is in the CUSP now...perhaps the LLC has jogged even further north?"

OK...now...a cusp is the area that separates the flow b/w a low or high and another low or high (do a google search). It is an area of reverse flow...light winds.

What it looks like the QSCAT is showing to me is the low to the south (which has always been there) is nudged up some and recon was flying the CUSP...and the low of the TD has indeed moved up closer to the convection. If you look at the QSCAT you see a lot of winds that are all over the place inside the convection. That could be some bad data and the low could actually be in there.

This is a very broad low as is seen by the sfc obs...hence the lack of really strong winds. It will be interesting to see what recon finds...

[Normandy]

Well that one shows some sporadic wind barbs indicating NW winds where they should be at least.

EDIT
Thanx AFM

[Stormcenter]

I still say Brnsville south..I can see a SW move tomorrow..

SW? I can't buy into that. I see more of WNW track.

[Aric Dunn]

QSCAT: You're forgetting recon already placed the center closer to the convection seen on satellite. - Aric sharpen up on your scientific methodology.

Only question here is intensity.

ummm yeah ... quickscat still helps with intensity

[wxmann_91]

QSCAT: You're forgetting recon already placed the center closer to the convection seen on satellite. - Aric sharpen up on your scientific methodology.

Only question here is intensity.

ummm yeah ... quickscat still helps with intensity

I can just hear Mr. Proenza nodding his head right now. This is one instance where QS has definitely helped.

(dangit, this is the second time I thought was posting in the Dean thread but instead I was posting in the TD5/Invest91L thread )

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still say Brnsville south..I can see a SW move tomorrow..

SW? I can't buy into that. I see more of WNW track.

I can't buy into that either. All one has to do is look at the cloud motions near the TX coast ATM and you can see that this will head WNW or NW all the way. 00z GFS also continues to show the high weakening and the steering flow heading more toward the NW within 24 hours. No Mexican storm this time it seems.

[Sanibel]

Hmm. That QSCAT center seems to have round convection to its E over Yucatan? Hmm. I have never seen a center relocate anti-poleward into shear. This is weird. I'm glad I'm witnessing it!

[HouTXmetro]

Outside of Earnesto being ripped into two last year, this has to be the weirdest system I have ever seen.

[Aric Dunn]

the time stamp in the quikscat always throws me for a loop

promets any take on quikscat

I'll take a stab at it and then I'm off to bed...so if you have a question...I probably won't see it

I'm baffled as well...but looking back at the recon obs there was a well defined low with north and west winds 1 hour before this image was taken. I can't imagine that the low is just gone. If you look back at the 91 thread you see I made a comment about recon flying "the cusp." That comment was made at 0015Z (the qscat is from 0028Z) I assumed that was what was happening.

Here is the comment: "Looks like recon is in the CUSP now...perhaps the LLC has jogged even further north?"

OK...now...a cusp is the area that separates the flow b/w a low or high and another low or high (do a google search). It is an area of reverse flow...light winds.

What it looks like the QSCAT is showing to me is the low to the south (which has always been there) is nudged up some and recon was flying the CUSP...and the low of the TD has indeed moved up closer to the convection. If you look at the QSCAT you see a lot of winds that are all over the place inside the convection. That could be some bad data and the low could actually be in there.

This is a very broad low as is seen by the sfc obs...hence the lack of really strong winds. It will be interesting to see what recon finds...

I was thinking that the new low had not quite closed off or was not defined enough when the pass was made so it be came confused about what you are talking about (the cusp) which would make sense .

so the wind strength is probably accurate

[Aric Dunn]

Hmm. That QSCAT center seems to have round convection to its E over Yucatan? Hmm. I have never seen a center relocate anti-poleward into shear. This is weird. I'm glad I'm witnessing it!

umm no .. dont think so the center is farther north..
like i said i have seen this before and was always told the winds are probably accurate.

[lrak]

its been two years since we've had tropical watches.

[Sanibel]

But Aric, you're missing the point. The QSCAT shows the center if it's a surface reading. Can't be any other way. What about that round dot of convection over Yucatan? That is a sign of a center burst associated with the QSCAT center.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Sanibel - This system is not relocating anti-poleward toward the Yucatan and the spin down there likely has nothing to do with TD#5. This Qscat image is fairly old (back from around the time of Recon) and that weak little LLC down there very well could have died out some. As AFM said, the bigger concern is that the LLC of TD#5 was pulled in under the convection. If that's the case, then that could be bad news when it comes to possible rapid intensification.

[Aric Dunn]

But Aric, you're missing the point. The QSCAT shows the center if it's a surface reading. Can't be any other way. What about that round dot of convection over Yucatan? That is a sign of a center burst associated with the QSCAT center.

no no what im trying to tell you is that the satellite in space can get confused!! but that normally the the speeds are accurate... see its measure the speed and direction of clouds to determine the images you (after they are put together)
so it could have easily misread something so it caused it to show the circulation farther south I have seen it before.

[vaffie]

The center of the blob is now at 25N (1.5 degrees north of the NHC's center estimate). In the last half an hour, convection has begun to build again, but now at 25.6N. My guess is that it's most likely going to reform north twice over the course of the next 12 hours.

[weatherrabbit_tx]

moisture is really increasing, have a dewpoint at 74 degrees, really getting sticky out there