CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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miamicanes177
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2181 Postby miamicanes177 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:24 pm

If it makes it to the caribbean like the GFS says...the key will be cuba and Hispaniola. Cuba is not wide at all, just long. It would not take much deviation to the left for it to stay over water the entire time. On the other hand, it if goes at the right angle it could run the length of Cuba for over 24 hours. But Cuba and Hispaniola are small targets and I would suspect the most likely scenario is not a prolonged period of time over either.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2182 Postby Sanibel » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:24 pm

Also seeing 275-280* possibly more. (Beginning pull-up?)
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2183 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:24 pm

Bgator wrote:It kinda looks like Dean is moving a bit north of due west. Kinda looks like a 275-280, but its hard to tell for me on the IR.


Yes i also noticed that but also was not sure...
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#2184 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:25 pm

I don't believe this GFS run. First, it keeps it far too weak. Second, it has not taken into account the relocation of the center to the north.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2185 Postby fci » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:25 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:This thing ain't gonna go north. TWC has mentioned that the ridge over the Atlantic and the one over the SE (that is driving soon to be Erin WNW) may join up and form a type of "brick wall." This thing is destin for the gulf! If I was in Barbados or any neighboring island, I'd be up all night cutting plywood tonight.


OK, nobody knows so we are all "guessing" as are the models.

So, my guess is that by looking at Historical Tracks; it is not possible to simply state "This thing ain't gonna go north".
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2186 Postby skufful » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:25 pm

Looks to be making a BIG north move at 150hrs
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2187 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:26 pm

weatherguru18 wrote:I'll wait until I see the new runs. I think Dean will bypass the trough digging down the east coast. It's heading for the GULF!


it may end up in the gulf, however it could end up in the carolinas too. Still too far out to focus on that. But this GFS run is pointing towards the gulf, I will give you that. Quite frankley it could still even be a fish, although not likely.
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#2188 Postby Steve » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:26 pm

Agreed fci. Nobody knows right now, and timing with future speedbumps or gallons of NOS is what is going to be critical. Everything right now is pure speculation.

Steve
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#2189 Postby windstorm99 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:27 pm

Scorpion wrote:I don't believe this GFS run. First, it keeps it far too weak. Second, it has not taken into account the relocation of the center to the north.


The changes if any wont come until the 06z runs.
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#2190 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:27 pm

Derek, I respectfully dissagree with you. I think its really good once it gets a handle on the fix of the low. BUT** by FAR it does a MUCH better job with synoptic setup then the GFS.
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#2191 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:28 pm

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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2193 Postby ROCK » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:28 pm

skufful wrote:Looks to be making a BIG north move at 150hrs



uh? still under Cuba a tad......
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2194 Postby Javlin » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:28 pm

Blown_away wrote:As we get closer and closer to land those few degrees make a difference. If the GFS initialized at 11.6N instead of 12N it would make a difference. I guess @24 miles, not a big difference I guess. :?:


But if you go look at the GFDL it intialized @11.6 @50knts then the HWRF @11.6 @35knt now these are hrs old now and had somewhat a deflection N but not much and the NHC says 12N QS shows 11.8 @3:06UTC I do not see that making an E coast threat YET but lets see how it looks tomorrow afternoon.

By the way Steve I had figured out the Maryland before I started typing just having fun ,knew where you were going. :D
Last edited by Javlin on Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:32 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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Scorpion

#2195 Postby Scorpion » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:29 pm

A stronger Dean should create more consistency with the models
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#2196 Postby deltadog03 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:29 pm

I just can't see this as a 1000-1004mb low this far down the road.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2197 Postby oyster_reef » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:30 pm

this GOMer is going to explode in the Gulf

:eek: :eek:
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jhamps10

#2198 Postby jhamps10 » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:30 pm

yeah I agree, I don't see no big move north. In fact looks like it may even miss Cuba all together, or cross on the west side, which is flat and will not do a thing in destroying this thing.
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#2199 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:30 pm

Models never do real well on pressure on the surface charts. GFS doesn't anyway.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=00z GFS run rolling in

#2200 Postby crazycajuncane » Tue Aug 14, 2007 11:30 pm

There will be so much change in the models this far out. Right now it's really just a wait and see game. It'll be interesting to see where this storm ends up. We've gone from a possible Mexico track to Carolinas coast and everywhere in between!
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