CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Scorpion]

12z GFS tomorrow should be more in reality... it'll initialize a much deeper Dean

[skufful]

Looks to be making a BIG north move at 150hrs

uh? still under Cuba a tad......

Yeh, first one I had to refresh - must have been a real old run. I thought the model went nuts

[Scorpion]

Boy Dean is sure firing up tonight...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[canetracker]

156 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_156l.gif
156 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_156l.gif

162 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_162l.gif
162 hour 500 mb level
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_162l.gif

[deltadog03]

KFDM i FULLY agree with you. It will never be right with the pressure. I guess my beef is why does most people put all there money with the GFS. thats all

[KFDM Meteorologist]

162 500 has a weak high over SE Texas.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif

[canetracker]

Finally enters the GOM

[jhamps10]

Boy Dean is sure firing up tonight...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

no kidding, we could have hurricane Dean by tomorrow night.

[Blown Away]

I just can't see this as a 1000-1004mb low this far down the road.

That weak system goes to Texas, the predicted Cat 3 will gain latitude. Once the NHC gets that plane into the storm, then we will see Dean going N making it a close call for SFL or a Hugo type track. IMO

[Sanibel]

A Donna hook too close to Florida to not notice. Deeper initial trend is rightward.

[MWatkins]

At 150 hours...the GFS is almost exactly on the same track as the 12Z at the same verify time...near 20N 80W.

Tonights 150 HR prog:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_150m.gif

This mornings 162 HR prog (same VT)

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162m.gif

At least it is being consistent...for once...

MW

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Use this site for pressures earlier in the run:
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/tpm/emchurr/tcgen/

Does not have extended.

[miamicanes177]

I do discount the EURO

I do not understand why many view it as the best model. It is great for medium range midlatitude weather, but the tropics are a different story

Perhaps because in 2006 the EURO was second to none at hours 72-120.
At 72 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 72 hour error by at least 20%
At 96 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 72 hour error
At 120 hours, ECMWF was < all other models' 120 hour error by at least 29%
At 120 hours, ECMWF was < all other model's 96 hour error expect the GFDL.

Guess that is why everyone thinks so highly of it.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/pdfs/Verification_2006.pdf

[StormWarning1]

I just can't see this as a 1000-1004mb low this far down the road.

That weak system goes to Texas, the predicted Cat 3 will gain latitude. Once the NHC gets that plane into the storm, then we will see Dean going N making it a close call for SFL or a Hugo type track. IMO

The isobars you see of 1000-1004 do not reflect the lowest pressure.

[Blown Away]

SFL will likely be in the 5 day cone by Thursday morning. The local media is going to go crazy.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

162 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_162l.gif

[PTPatrick]

162 upper aire shows bermuda high into Georgia...and a high over west texas....looks like a open door to the northern gulf this run but that may change if the high postion has shifted in the 190 hr range...but I am expecting more of a LA/MS/AL end game on this run.

[canetracker]

168 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_168l.gif
168 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_168l.gif

174 hr surface
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_slp_174l.gif
174 500 mb
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/00/images/gfs_500_174l.gif

174 hours

[Scorpion]

New Orleans perhaps?

[PTPatrick]

spoke too soon...looks like it did change a little in the 174. Maybe still Lake Charles to Houston this go around.


Edit: Looking at 174, high seems to have moved back into west texas a little more.