CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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quaqualita
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Re:

#2281 Postby quaqualita » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:41 am

knotimpaired wrote:Thanks, it is nice to see someone who cares about our islands.

Kudos.


same here, thanks for this thread, showing that you all care about us.

knotimpaired wrote:I know for a fact that if Dean gets close the PR Power will cut our service in advance.

Does any other island do that?


Since power is here off sometimes up to 18hrs per day for no reason, that's hard to tell if cut off on purpose before a storm or coincidence :x ?

Will keep a close eye on Dean and start doing some hurricane shopping tomorrow. Good luck to all.

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Re: TS Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#2282 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:47 am

I know I focus on the U.S. threat in the main threads, but I did want to let everyone know I care about the islands also. I followed Ivan and Emily very closely as they moved across in 2004 and 2005, and I will do the same here. I've never been to the area but know which islands are which for the most part. My thoughts will be ya'll.
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Re: TS Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#2283 Postby Observer » Wed Aug 15, 2007 1:54 am

This is my first post at storm2k and I'd like to wish everyone on the islands the very best of luck. My best advice is to prepare as soon as you can. If nothing happens, then nothing will be lost. Stick together and you will be okay. Unity=Power
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Scorpion

#2284 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:10 am

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Re:

#2285 Postby TSmith274 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:13 am

KFDM Meteorologist wrote:Landfall Cameron LA

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_228l.gif

Oh for Christ's sake... we've had enough in LA. Hope that doesn't pan out.
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Scorpion

#2286 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:18 am

96 hours..
Image


Euro... landfall in Old Mexico??
Image
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Scorpion

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models

#2287 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:19 am

I just cannot fathom a hurricane moving due west that far.. must be a hell of a ridge the Euro builds
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models

#2288 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:27 am

^^What the????
That is the weirdest track I've ever seen.
I'm inclined to wonder too, Scorpion.
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Scorpion

#2289 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:28 am

I cannot fathom an intense hurricane maintaining the same latitude for 40 degrees
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#2290 Postby HurricaneHunter914 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:30 am

It looks impressive, but not impressive enough to be a hurricane. 60 mph will most likely be the strength at 11 AM today. I pray that you guys in the Lesser Antilles will be safe on Friday.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2291 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:34 am

People all have choices in life. I hope they all choose wisely but some don't. Yes you can bring up how a 8+ earth quake is due for the northwest united states. But the fact is the last major quake has not happen since the 18th century. In over 200-300 years...While I see people on islands that where formed by Volcano's and most of these islands only a few feet off the ground. These islands are right in the path of hurricane alley. In I have to wonder about the Judgement of the captions and sailiers through out the 14-18th century. Did they get a idea from the many ships and thousands of men that died through out the sailiers age? So they build on islands which are right in the middle of hurricane alley. These people thought the earth was flat, so it is no wonder that they did build right in the track of some of the worst storms this planet has. Truely blows the mind. In what even blows the mind more is the FRENCH built a city at sea level(New orleans). Yes it was not below sea level at the time. But you have to ask your self was it worth it? These people are about 2 feet out of the cave in the 16-17th century. Hardly stone age to what we have today. Do you went to trust that?

No I don't went people to die. But its a fact of life that we all have something to worry about. Some just much more riskier then others. That is one of the things that makes life worth living. If it was not for things that make life interesting, life would not be worth living for a second. Heck life would almost be worst with out things to advance your self and all the advancesments that have come from looking at storms and finding ways to live. I think god has put this together for us to learn in better our selfs.

I say good luck to everyone.


As for Dean, yes this is a dean thread got to talk about dean. I would say this has organized slowly through out today. With the LLC right under the center of the system. I feel that this could slowly strengthen into a hurricane before hitting the islands.

So sit back in enjoy the cyclone people, because we only have one life to live. :wink:
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Scorpion

#2292 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:39 am

Image

Latest Quikscat
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Scorpion

#2293 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:50 am

What on earth is taking so long for the GFDL and HWRF?
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Scorpion

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2294 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:51 am

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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2295 Postby brunota2003 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:55 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:
knotimpaired wrote:So let me ask a question?

Since you are in Jupiter and know so much do that make you a expert? Have you ever been in Jupiter in a storm? Have you seen 30-40 swells coming into the inlet?

Well I have. My parents live on the water at Jupiter Inlet Coloney and since I was a child I watched every storm. I have watched every storm that came in from my back porch as a child.

I also watched men that died. Are you happy?


dude, whats your problem? We are allowed to make our own forecasts, no matter how inaccurate they are!

I dont think that was the point. The point was that some people in Florida are freaking out (or hyping a landfall possibility up) over something that has a higher chance of not hitting them than it does. The islands are going to get hit, there is only one way out of that, a weakness saving the day (99% chance that will not happen, pray it does). Meaning someone down there is about to be clobbered by possibly a very strong hurricane, if it gets its act together quick enough. Unlike in Florida, they have no state 200 miles away to run to. If they evacuate, it requires a plane and 100's, if not 1000's, of miles of flying to do so. There is simply no where to run on an island out in the middle of the ocean.
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Matt-hurricanewatcher

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models

#2296 Postby Matt-hurricanewatcher » Wed Aug 15, 2007 2:56 am

Who knows, but a 40 degree west track is very very unlikely. I would at least expect some kind of west-northwest or northwest once into the Western Caribbean/gulf.
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Re:

#2297 Postby tronbunny » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:00 am

Scorpion wrote:I cannot fathom an intense hurricane maintaining the same latitude for 40 degrees


Makes you wonder if the coreolis effect is trumped by intensity - especially since the high pressure ridge 30n80w pictured in the 8/24 Euro (above) is little more than a bump.
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Scorpion

#2298 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:25 am

Latest satellite

Image
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#2299 Postby Irina » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:30 am

And let us not forget Sint Maarten where Ms.Bee lives and where I lived until February of this year. Now I live in Miami where it's REALLY safe.
Good luck to all my friends in the Caribbean.
Best
irina
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Scorpion

#2300 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:31 am

SHIPS initialized at 51 kt so we should see 60 mph at 5
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