CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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#2341 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:32 am

Image

Image

Looking good.
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#2342 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:33 am

Nothing wrong with a basin wide west track for you young guys above. It happens sometimes. I agree that it's not particularly likely, but it does happen with some of the weaker and/or stronger storms. I have no call as to legitimacy or not, just saying it's happened before with systems such as Gilbert and Allen (as well as almost all the weaker stuff and waves coming across the basin).

And fwiw, the Sepat track bends even more.They've been pretty good so far.

https://metocph.nmci.navy.mil/jtwc/warnings/wp0907.gif
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#2343 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:34 am

Image

Very similar to NHC's forecasted track.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... 5d#a_topad
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#2344 Postby storms in NC » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:36 am

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Now that it has slow down you will see it wrap up and become a hurricane in the next 12 hours. Also it should start to see more of a WNW movement as will. I still praying for you all in the Islands that you all will be safe.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2345 Postby Janie2006 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:38 am

Yep. Just to the south of the major Carribean islands, which means that landmass interaction shouldn't be a grave difficulty for Dean, assuming this forecast track holds true.

Interesting. WX Underground has Dean weakening slightly just before impacting the islands, then indicates re-intensification. A reflection of Dean's possible interaction with the TUTT?
Last edited by Janie2006 on Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:40 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2346 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:40 am

HURAKAN I may add the word very to looking good.Improving banding and outflow.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models

#2347 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:44 am

WHXX04 KWBC 151126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 15

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 12.0 43.5 275./15.9
6 12.4 45.3 281./18.2
12 12.6 46.8 280./14.9
18 13.2 48.6 287./18.7
24 13.4 50.9 274./21.8
30 13.6 52.8 278./19.0
36 14.1 54.9 282./20.9
42 14.4 57.0 278./20.6
48 14.6 59.2 276./21.6
54 14.8 61.4 274./20.6
60 15.0 63.6 277./21.4
66 15.2 65.8 275./21.2
72 15.3 67.7 271./19.1
78 15.6 69.6 279./18.5
84 15.8 71.8 274./21.0
90 15.4 73.4 259./15.3
96 15.5 75.2 271./17.6
102 15.7 77.0 277./17.3
108 15.4 78.7 260./16.7
114 15.5 80.2 272./14.4
120 15.6 81.7 273./14.1
126 15.7 83.0


6z GFDL goes to CentralAmerica.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#2348 Postby Javlin » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:45 am

Janie2006 wrote:
THE UPPER TROF ACROSS THE W ATLC HAS BEEN A POTENTIAL INFLUENCE ON
THE TRACK OF DEAN BASED ON RECENT GUIDANCE...WITH VARIOUS RUNS
HINTING AT A WEAKNESS ALONG 70/71W THAT MIGHT HAVE ALLOWED DEAN TO
TURN MORE NW AND ACROSS OR VERY CLOSE TO THE LOCAL AREA.
HOWEVER...WITH DEAN`S CONTINUED RELATIVELY FAST MOTION AND LOW
LATITUDE...IT MAY REMAIN SOUTH OF SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCE OF THIS
POTENTIAL WEAKNESS AND SQUEAK BY THE LOCAL AREA.


I think Dean may very well scoot past the trough without being picked up, which could give it the green light right into the Carribean.


Yea I have been hinting at that since yesterday morning only because of the fast forward motion and you can not slam on the brakes of a freight train and that little guy out in front of Dean continues due W for the most part.
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Re:

#2349 Postby Dionne » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:46 am

knotimpaired wrote:Thank you for all of your responses.

Yes, we do have challenges that the US do not have and I am worried that our interests, basically our lives do not get set aside. We have families, friends, our lives are in the islands.

I just want to say that all of the Dean threads seem to be pushing the cart before the horse.

Cannot we all gather together here in the basin, ask for expert advice without the armchair mets to know exactly what is going on and where?

Vieques, Salinas, San Juan, Ponce, Isabella, all of Puerto Rico. But let us not forget

Culebra
Us Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
St Croix to the south
Angilla
Saba
St Kitts
Nevis
Antigua
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Martinique
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Off to east Barbados
Grenada
Trinidad and Tobago

I could probably name every cay on each island and I am sure I missed a few. My father was a Geography Professer at one of the major US universities. I knew every inch of the caribbean since I was a child.

I grew to love them before I came to live here but I know for a fact, this is my home and only home matters.

So please let us get back to basics and worry about the horse for now. 8 days out we can worry about the cart.

Please, that is all I ask.

I do not know if you realize when you live on a island a a hurricane strikes, you cannot run away.

It must be nice to have I-95 running in both directions getting you out..

On my island we do not have a traffic light.

How do you think we feel when we depend on a ferry that probably not run for days? That is our food?

Oops forgot, you always have Publix. Sorry.



YOU SEEM TO HAVE FORGOTTEN THAT SOME OF US ARE KATRINA VETERANS!
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=6z GFDL Posted

#2350 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:47 am

48hr 06Z HWARF..

Image
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Re:

#2351 Postby weatherguru18 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:48 am

Derek Ortt wrote:The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets


I don't know exactly what you mean by this but I'd rethink it. I will have a meteorology degree and I want to be on tv. Do you think that tv mets don't know what they are doing??? It's funny that you sure tune in to hear what they have to say.

The local meteorologist here just said that Dean could become a Cat. 5!!! He said one of the models depicted this. By the way, I have not heard any met. say yet that this was headed for the Florida straights.
Last edited by weatherguru18 on Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:53 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2352 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:50 am

Yeah it only just might clear Honduras on the 06z GFDL...tohugh note the increase in latitude between 0-36hrs, I can't remember that being forecasted a couple of days ago, at least not quite so readily. It then for some reason dives it back to W/WSW at 84hrs, I wonder why that would be the case??

Also going at quite a speed by 36hrs, averaging between 22-19kts between 36-84hrs, given its current foward speed it wouldn't be that surprisng I suppose!
Southerly track thorugh the Caribbean seems favered now though, most decent models are onto it...

120hrs HWRF has Dean hitting Jamaica at 928mb exiting at 944mbs.
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Re: TS Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#2353 Postby knotimpaired » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:51 am

I used to joke on here for a rain dance. No longer.

I thought the NHC had finally gotten their act together and could at least give a track that may resemble itself after 5 days.

While that is the only (NHC) that I will watch I also believe that anything is possible considering what has happened in the past few days.

Vieques and Culebra sent a boat down with food, clothing and furnishings to Grenada a few years ago and we will do it again.

I want all of those in the lower islands to know you are in our thoughts. Any help you need, all you need to do is ask and the Spanish Virgin Islands will be there.

Reality is, no one knows yet where help may be needed, but we are here and willing to help any community in need.
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Re: Re:

#2354 Postby sevenleft » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:52 am

weatherguru18 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets


I don't know exactly what you mean by this but I'd rethink it. I will have a meteorology degree and I want to be on tv. Do you think that tv mets don't know what they are doing??? It's funny that you sure tune in to hear what they have to say.

The local meteorology here just said that Dean could become a Cat. 5!!! He said one of the models depicted this. By the way, I have not heard any met. say yet that this was headed for the Florida straights.
Many TV mets don't have degrees, and don't know what they are talking about.

Then, some don't have degrees, but DO know what they are talking about.

A few more have degrees, and DON'T know what they are talking about.

And the rest have degrees, and do know what they are talking about.
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Re: Re:

#2355 Postby Windsurfer_NYC » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:56 am

This is a good topic, for perhaps another thread. Please let's get back on track with TS Dean discussion!

sevenleft wrote:
weatherguru18 wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets


I don't know exactly what you mean by this but I'd rethink it. I will have a meteorology degree and I want to be on tv. Do you think that tv mets don't know what they are doing??? It's funny that you sure tune in to hear what they have to say.

The local meteorology here just said that Dean could become a Cat. 5!!! He said one of the models depicted this. By the way, I have not heard any met. say yet that this was headed for the Florida straights.
Many TV mets don't have degrees, and don't know what they are talking about.

Then, some don't have degrees, but DO know what they are talking about.

A few more have degrees, and DON'T know what they are talking about.

And the rest have degrees, and do know what they are talking about.
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Re: Re:

#2356 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 6:58 am

sevenleft wrote:Many TV mets don't have degrees, and don't know what they are talking about.

Then, some don't have degrees, but DO know what they are talking about.

A few more have degrees, and DON'T know what they are talking about.

And the rest have degrees, and do know what they are talking about.


It's true that you can't just enclose every TV MET in one group.

Back on Dean:

Image
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#2357 Postby sweetpea » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:01 am

My father lives in Coqui, PR, which is by Salinas, I spoke to him yesterday and he said he was going to get a couple of 6-packs of water. ARGHH!!! I told him he might want to get more than that. Not much phases my father he said it was just another storm. Needless to say I was a LITTLE upset with him. I will be talking to him the next few days trying to talk some sense into him. At least he does have alot of family that lives around him, so I told him to go to one of those houses, if things start looking like they are going to get real bad.
Debbie
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#2358 Postby punkyg » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:03 am

Does any one think Dean with strengthin at 11pm?
I have a feeling td5 will.
i really think it will maybe up to 55mph or even 60mph.
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Re:

#2359 Postby msbee » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:08 am

punkyg wrote:Guys the weather channel talking about our 3 tropical systems Flossie, Dean and Td5
I say around friday we all will start paying more attention to Dean, because i think Flossie will be gone by then and Td5/Erin makes landfall on the texas coast and Dean might be up to hurricane strength. sunday to monday will tell us where Dean will go.i know yall are wondering
why i mention the weather channel
cause there gonna send Jim cantore, Jeff morrow and Mike sidel to where ever Dean is forcasted to make landfall, because those are the people they always send out. i can't wait to see and listening to Jim cantore whine about something.


yea, but they will never send him to any of the islands, which are first in the line of fire.
and regarding TV hype about these storms, last night I was watching Jim Cantore in Hawaii.
He was showing high surf and not much else. Then I turned to CNN and CNN was saying "Flossie pounds Hawaii". I think there also was a statement "Flossie takes aim at Hawaii"
I hardly think high surf equals "pounding" Hawaii. and it was hardly aiming at Hawaii when it was forecast to weaken and pass well South.
It is obvious the news people are often seriously exaggerating in order to get high ratings.
Irresponsible, IMHO
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Re: Re:

#2360 Postby fox13weather » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:08 am

linkerweather wrote:
Derek Ortt wrote:The local TV "mets" (as if they have degrees in meteorology!!) are already starting to say "Dean has his sights on Florida!" Really, they should call it something of interest and emphasizing prepardness rather than being unnecessarily alarmist at this stage. The Mobile NBC affiliate has estimated that Dean is 3015 miles from Pensacola. That sort of thing drives me up the wall.

Use the blog I have at PNJ or refer to the nwhhc site for better info than you'll get from those dumber than Zidane pretend TV mets


Derek,
I am sorry that you have had a bad experience with some TV mets. I can tell you from experience that often the "alarmist" nature doesn't come from the met himself but from consultants or the newsroom. We have been talking preparedness since May. We try to drive that point that you should be prepared prior to the season even beginning. I have made point after point, to NOT raise the surrender flag for FLorida. As you know, there is WAY too much uncertainty this far out. Truth is, our viewers should be aware that a system is out there, but not worry or even be concerned. I like to think that my viewers trust my judgement and when I mention Florida as a concern, then they should really begin preparations.

Admittedly, for many in my field, it has become an alarmist game, but I would go back to my original point in saying it is usually driven by the non weather folks in the TV news business.


Edited to add: yesterday I mentioned how far it was from Tampa to further the ppoint that we NEED NOT WORRY as it is too far away.


You won't catch me or anyone at our station playing the alarmist game. Anyone that trys to pinpoint a landfall area when models have been flip flopping for days is being irresponsible. Lots can, and will happen, when a storm is 3000 miles away, in fact, lots can happen when a storm is 300 miles away. In a couple of days we can start making general forecasts for landfall areas, not now. Any meteorologist that goes on air and trys to be the hurricane forecasting hero when a storm is this far away will eventually get burned and will lose all credibility.
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