Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[sealbach]

no, it should be in regular mode

[vaffie]

The ever used "things are beginning to get interesting" is now being put in effect..

Recon obs could be fun....

I expect that pressures are starting to fall very rapidly. One can't argue against there being a heck of a lot of convergence below and divergence aloft! with a satellite picture like that!
http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

In the next few minutes they will reach the outer rim of convection. But they will still be half an hour from the coldest cloud tops in the center.

[Javlin]

That's the biggest difference between a dvorak satellite estimate and a lowest pressure center I've ever seen.

15/0545 UTC 26.1N 91.2W T2.0/2.0 05L -- Atlantic Ocean

Think somebody screwed up?even to my untrained eye by DV sat it looks to be where the NHC has it.

[HouTXmetro]

Are we expecting landfall south or North of CC? Has the track shifted any from last night?

[vaffie]

Are we expecting landfall south or North of CC? Has the track shifted any from last night?

No. The lowest pressure that was measured by the hurricane hunters the last time they went in was at the very southern tip of the blob. Satellite estimates however look at cloud rotation and they found it to be in the middle of the blob. That's why they're almost two degrees of latitude apart.

[Stratosphere747]

Are we expecting landfall south or North of CC? Has the track shifted any from last night?

Right now, Corpus and south. If a center is trying to form underneath that convection, than we might have to just take another look.

[HURAKAN]

Looks like Erin is on her way!!!

[HouTXmetro]

This has me nervous and looks intimidating.

[Stratosphere747]

Patience. This recon flight will be telling. They will be out there long enough that if anything were taking hold that quickly, we will know about it.

[ROCK]

HouTex Metro- I wouldn't get to worked up unless recon finds a rapidly strengthening storm. IMO, strong TS going into CC will not give us a whole lot of grief this far north. We will have to see. Now if this thing goes from TD to cat 2 by the afternoon and pulls up North then I would get concerned......what are the odds of that....

[Aquawind]

36hr 06Z HWRF..

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... p_036m.gif

[alan1961]

talk about an explosion in the gulf.. ..good job this thing didn't have more time to develop or it would have been goodbye Texas!!!

[Thunder44]

This is the postion the NHC has the center as of the 8am advisory:

[url=http://imageshack.us]
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[HouTXmetro]

Looks like the center has been adjusted a tad bit further north according the the satellite overlay.

[Johnny]

We are getting one heck of a rain with steady gusts of winds (up to 30 mph or higher) just west of Conroe in Southeast, Texas. Is this associated with the depression at all? Man, it's coming down with some good wind. No lightning or thunder though.

[HURAKAN]

TWD 805:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE IS CENTERED NEAR 24.6N 91.8W AT 15/0900
UTC OR ABOUT 320 NM ESE OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS MOVING NW AT 9 KT.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1006 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WIND SPEED IS 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 35 KT. SEE LATEST NHC
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT5/WTNT25 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS. SYSTEM HAS NOT BECOME MORE ORGANIZED DURING
THE NIGHT WITH SATELLITE IMAGERY HINTING AT MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL
CENTERS. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN 150 NM
OF THE CENTER OVER THE N SEMICIRCLE. ALTHOUGH UPPER LEVEL WINDS
ARE BECOMING MORE FAVORABLE FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT THE LACK OF
CURRENT ORGANIZATION AND THE LIMITED TIME THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
OVER WATER THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TOO MUCH.

[sevenleft]

Based on the recon data, a center is likely to be fixed near 24.5N/93.5W, or maybe a little SW of that point. The center is still removed from the convection, with light winds. It is becoming unlikely this system will undergo any significant amount of intensification before landfall on Thursday.

[HouTXmetro]

Atleast we will get some relief from the heat.

[HURAKAN]

Based on the recon data, a center is likely to be fixed near 24.5N/93.5W, or maybe a little SW of that point. The center is still removed from the convection, with light winds. It is becoming unlikely this system will undergo any significant amount of intensification before landfall on Thursday.

Agree. Maybe we can squeeze Erin out of it but nothing more. I guess S2k members in the coast of Texas should prepare for a lot of rain but nothing more.

[sevenleft]

We now have west winds...center is at approximately 24.5N/93.5W.