CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[knotimpaired]

Knot, I understand your frustration, and here's some friendly advice: you catch more flies with honey.

It's only natural that everyone in coastal areas will be concerned about themselves....just as it is an example of the greatness in people that they will be concerned about others, too. The two are not mutually exclusive. We're all concerned for anyone in the path of a storm.

I appreciate your response but do I believe I am expressing my concern over what could be a horrible situation, not only to PR and the Virgins, all of our sister islands? When I say sister islands those are at least 1,000 miles from you and a few hundred from me.

Read from page 1 of every Dean thread, maybe over 150+ pages by now and tell me how many mention the islands. It seems eveyone is worried about the U.S.

Then get back to me.

[punkyg]

I wanna know am i the only one seeing the 60kts with this storm?

Yes, Punky. You need glasses.

I'm joking, of course. Yes, I see some 60 kt barbs as well.

Girl i don't need glasses even though it runs in my family!! ahhhhhhhhh i don't wanna look like my sister and mother. Dean is strong, but i'm wondering if Dean will move north.

[sevenleft]

Knot, I understand your frustration, and here's some friendly advice: you catch more flies with honey.

It's only natural that everyone in coastal areas will be concerned about themselves....just as it is an example of the greatness in people that they will be concerned about others, too. The two are not mutually exclusive. We're all concerned for anyone in the path of a storm.

I appreciate your response but do I believe I am expressing my concern over what could be a horrible situation, not only to PR and the Virgins, all of our sister islands? When I say sister islands those are at least 1,000 miles from you and a few hundred from me.

Read from page 1 of every Dean thread, maybe over 150+ pages by now and tell me how many mention the islands. It seems eveyone is worried about the U.S.

Then get back to me.

Give me a break. People, as they should, worry about themselves. Most of the members are from the lower 48, therefor, they are more concerned about impacts on the United States.

Don't take it personally.

[HurryKane]

Knot, I understand your frustration, and here's some friendly advice: you catch more flies with honey.

It's only natural that everyone in coastal areas will be concerned about themselves....just as it is an example of the greatness in people that they will be concerned about others, too. The two are not mutually exclusive. We're all concerned for anyone in the path of a storm.

I appreciate your response but do I believe I am expressing my concern over what could be a horrible situation, not only to PR and the Virgins, all of our sister islands? When I say sister islands those are at least 1,000 miles from you and a few hundred from me.

Read from page 1 of every Dean thread, maybe over 150+ pages by now and tell me how many mention the islands. It seems eveyone is worried about the U.S.

Then get back to me.

No thanks, I won't be getting back to you. Good luck to you and everyone down there; despite your insistence otherwise, y'all are all on my mind and the minds of many others.

[windstorm99]

Now you have ECMWF even takeing this thing to the south of southflorida in the coming days.Its hard not to notice the general trend of the models takeing this feature in a gilbert or allen type of track.

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41041

This bouy is located North from the center of Dean and look how the winds are picking up.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not all are in the Due west camp..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

[knotimpaired]

When I started this thread it was meant to be for the islanders and Mets.

I am sorry if I in some way insulted you but we do feel slighted here on S2K.

Dean has not even hit yet and all anyone can talk about is "where, where".

Just cut us a break and realize we are going to be hit first.

[BatzVI]

Here in St. Thomas, on some netting by a construction site, someone wrote:

06 No Hurricanes for VI & FL

whoever it was did it again this year

07 No Hurricanes for VI & FL

wish I had a pic, but it's along a main road and no place to stop and take one...

Just thought it was pretty cool.....

[Weatherfreak14]

WOW this system looks organized this morning, i thtink we may see a hurricane by 11pm advisory.

[miamicanes177]

Code: Select all

738
WHXX01 KWBC 151249
CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1249 UTC WED AUG 15 2007
 
DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.
 
ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR
 
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070815 1200 UTC
 
        ...00 HRS...   ...12 HRS...   ...24 HRS. ..   ...36 HRS...
        070815  1200   070816  0000   070816  1200   070817  0000
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    12.3N  45.1W   13.3N  49.5W   14.2N  54.6W   15.3N  59.7W
BAMD    12.3N  45.1W   12.7N  49.3W   13.2N  53.4W   13.5N  57.3W
BAMM    12.3N  45.1W   13.0N  49.4W   13.6N  54.1W   14.2N  58.3W
LBAR    12.3N  45.1W   12.8N  48.9W   13.4N  52.9W   13.8N  57.1W
SHIP        50KTS          55KTS          61KTS          67KTS
DSHP        50KTS          55KTS          61KTS          67KTS
 
        ...48 HRS...   ...72 HRS...   ...96 HRS. ..   ..120 HRS...
        070817  1200   070818  1200   070819  1200   070820  1200
 
         LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON     LAT    LON
BAMS    15.8N  64.7W   15.7N  73.4W   14.8N  78.8W   15.2N  80.9W
BAMD    13.8N  60.9W   14.9N  67.3W   16.6N  73.4W   19.2N  79.9W
BAMM    14.4N  62.4W   14.9N  69.4W   15.6N  74.9W   17.9N  79.7W
LBAR    14.1N  61.2W   15.0N  68.2W     .0N    .0W     .0N    .0W
SHIP        76KTS          92KTS          96KTS         100KTS
DSHP        76KTS          92KTS          96KTS         100KTS
 
         ...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR =  12.3N LONCUR =  45.1W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR =  17KT
LATM12 =  11.9N LONM12 =  41.5W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 =  16KT
LATM24 =  11.8N LONM24 =  38.6W
WNDCUR =   50KT RMAXWD =   20NM WNDM12 =   45KT
CENPRS =  997MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD =  180NM SDEPTH =   D
RD34NE =   45NM RD34SE =   45NM RD34SW =   30NM RD34NW =  45NM
 
$$
NNNN


Now 50kts so getting stronger

[Blown Away]

Still generally west, but I see a tad N of due west, IMO.

[canegrl04]

From WXRISK site : Dean Likely a Gulf hurricane. Strong as Cat 4,no riding up the east coast.

[BatzVI]

But I did have a question earlier for the Pro Mets......is there anything that could suggest any type of northern turn toward the upper islands (VI & BVI, PR)......I have the shutters out, but don't want to put them on if I don't have to......they probably won't come off again until Nov...lol

[miamicanes177]

From WXRISK site : Dean Likely a Gulf hurricane. Strong as Cat 4,no riding up the east coast.

Can you give the link?

[ronjon]

Now you have ECMWF even takeing this thing to the south of southflorida in the coming days.Its hard not to notice the general trend of the models takeing this feature in a gilbert or allen type of track.

Yes, today it is looking increasingly likely that the Atlantic Ridge will be building a protective bubble over the southeast and western Atlantic sending the storm on a more westward path. Of course, that is today - tomorrow will see that the global models overestimated the ridge strength in 5 days and change the track. I don't think we'll have a more solid idea until Friday or Saturday where it goes from the Leewards.

[KBBOCA]

Can this thread's name please be clarified. Make sure to include "Discussion" -- as it stands with 12:00 models it is too confusing between this thread and the models thread.

Thanks.

[canegrl04]

From WXRISK site : Dean Likely a Gulf hurricane. Strong as Cat 4,no riding up the east coast.

Can you give the link?

Sure : http://www.wxrisk.com

[storms in NC]

It may be but I would watch the Islands first than I can see to where it goes from there. If it come a strong Hurricane it can go NW and just miss the Islands. Now be a good thing. I know will not happen.JMO only

[Blown Away]

well, the Euro completly floped....

Link, which way did it flop?