Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

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A1A
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#221 Postby A1A » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:44 am

Not very active in the Tropical Analysis forum. I guess it's a little more fun for the pro-mets here!
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#222 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:07 am

Image

RECON going north now to get ready for a second pass.

First pass Max. FL. winds: 31 knots
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#223 Postby jabman98 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:10 am

Major thunderstorm with wind, lightning and crashing thunder woke me up around 4:00 a.m. this morning - just north of downtown Houston. From radar it looked like one of the waaaay outer bands of TD5. East to west movement across the screen. 0.7 inches of rain in about 20 minutes.

We've had a week to 10 days off from the rain, but other than that we're seriously saturated here. We've had two street floodings and neighborhood floodings this summer, which we didn't even have with Allison. I'm not too worried about the wind (although the huge tree on our neighbor's property that grows over our house always makes me nervous), but the rain could definitely be an issue.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#224 Postby weunice » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:14 am

We had a similar storm yesterday which I was very thankful for. It was well over 90 degrees at the time it came through. Fast moving east to west and the storm was relatively north of the storm.
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#225 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:28 am

15/1145 UTC 24.9N 93.2W T2.0/2.0 05L

Dvorak's estimate stays the same. Nonetheless, based on the RECON 24.9N is a little far to the north.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#226 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:32 am

This thing is not well organized...broad low(s) but Lots of rain and yall don't need that. Stay safe and try to stay dry.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#227 Postby tailgater » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:33 am

Latest Quickscat, lets see how RECON matches up with this one.

http://manati.orbit.nesdis.noaa.gov/img ... ap?420,203
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#228 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:36 am

Image
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#229 Postby Stormcenter » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:40 am

Visually this system does look impressive.
It still has a decent bit of water to travel over
so I wouldn't sell it short just yet.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#230 Postby Rainband » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:44 am

Stormcenter wrote:Visually this system does look impressive.
It still has a decent bit of water to travel over
so I wouldn't sell it short just yet.
Just going with what the NHC said.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#231 Postby Johnny » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:50 am

It does like nice on vis. satellite but that's about it. So much for a rapid developer as previously thought. More rain on the way for South, Texas.
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#232 Postby whereverwx » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:05 am

It's a little "bumpy" up there.

Image
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#233 Postby jasons2k » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:05 am

I don't think I've ever seen such a system that looked so organized and symmetrical on satellite, and yet the surface obs had the center so displaced from the convection. This one has me scratching me head for sure.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#234 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:06 am

This is the lowest pressure so far right?

13:33:00 25.35N 93.25W 956.8 mb 437 m 1005.1 mb From 272° (W) at 11 kts (12.6 mph) 13 kts (~ 14.9 mph) - -
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Re:

#235 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:07 am

jschlitz wrote:I don't think I've ever seen such a system that looked so organized and symmetrical on satellite, and yet the surface obs had the center so displaced from the convection. This one has me scratching me head for sure.


It's really puzzling. I still think we can squeeze Erin out of this.
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#236 Postby vaffie » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:07 am

Recon seems to be finding that the center has reformed to the north, closer to the middle of the blob at 25.37N 93.28W. That's also where the lowest pressure is and where the winds change as you pass through.

956.9 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 312° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) 25.7°C
(~ 78.3°F) 23.7°C
(~ 74.7°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph)
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Re: Tropical Depression FIVE: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

#237 Postby Extremeweatherguy » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:09 am

vaffie wrote:Recon seems to be finding that the center has reformed to the north, closer to the middle of the blob at 25.37N 93.28W. That's also where the lowest pressure is and where the winds change as you pass through.

956.9 mb
(~ 28.26 inHg) 438 meters
(~ 1,437 feet) 1005.1 mb
(~ 29.68 inHg) - From 312° at 10 knots
(From the NW at ~ 11.5 mph) 25.7°C
(~ 78.3°F) 23.7°C
(~ 74.7°F) 11 knots
(~ 12.6 mph)


That would make sense.
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#238 Postby xironman » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:11 am

The reforming center would be more in line with the Quickscat posted earlier
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#239 Postby skysummit » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:11 am

Wait....956mb???
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Re:

#240 Postby WmE » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:12 am

skysummit wrote:Wait....956mb???


Flight level :D !
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