CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[rightbayou]

I hope this has not been asked and answered before, but IF Dean were to come into the GOM, would TD5 have used up enough potential energy from surface heat to cause any potential weakening? Thanks,

[Derek Ortt]

Right now, I am leading toward the Windwards or southern Leewards. My latest track has this clipping the N Coast of St Lucia, though France and Dominica are definately threatened (I really want this away from France due to the very high population density and the potential for great destruction).

Cannot rule Barbados out, but need this staying away there as it is also very highly populated and has a very high standard of living.

Looks like a Friday landfall as a cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

My best bet for those in the islands is to listen to emergency management officials. Also, in addition to the forecasts in the AF, there are 6 hourly updates, which will soon become 3 hourly on nwhhc.com as well.

[Beam]

Just in from The Weather Channel: "As it moves to the east, it is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane"

[stormchazer]

What will the affect of TD5 be on the highs/lows CONUS and the Atlantic Ridge??? I don't think any of the models are taking the developing gulf strom into much consideration at this point. When I look at the models, many don't even show the gulf system at all, or if they do, very very weakly. What will the remnants of the system do? Will a trough be in the place of the storm? Will it be back filled by an eastward moving high that should protect TX but potentially send a storm to the upper gulf? Any insights???

I think there is a TD 5 thread going and this may be more appropriate there.

I think this is a legimate question. Will TD5 interact with the environment is such a ways st effect Dean's track. Its just another variable the models and NHC have to deal with when forecasting the movement of Dean.

[Wx_Warrior]

Thanks meso!!!!

What time are the next set of model runs?

[HURAKAN]

I hope this has not been asked and answered before, but IF Dean were to come into the GOM, would TD5 have used up enough potential energy from surface heat to cause any potential weakening? Thanks,

If Dean reaches the GOM, TD 5 / Erin will be history. Meaning, TD 5 / Erin is forecasted to make landfall in about 24 to 36 hours, and if Dean reaches the GOM it should do it, not this weekend, but probably next weekend. A lot of time between both system to get the waters very warm again. Nonetheless, TD 5 / Erin is very weak, which means that it's not using a lot of energy.

[HURAKAN]

[cycloneye]

Right now, I am leading toward the Windwards or southern Leewards. My latest track has this clipping the N Coast of St Lucia, though France and Dominica are definately threatened (I really want this away from France due to the very high population density and the potential for great destruction).

Cannot rule Barbados out, but need this staying away there as it is also very highly populated and has a very high standard of living.

Looks like a Friday landfall as a cat 2 or 3 hurricane.

My best bet for those in the islands is to listen to emergency management officials. Also, in addition to the forecasts in the AF, there are 6 hourly updates, which will soon become 3 hourly on nwhhc.com as well.

Derek,when you say France,you mean Martinique right? Thank you for that orientation to all of us.Keep us informed.

[BigD]

Dallas NWS chimes in again this morning...

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...IS STILL FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK /AS A HURRICANE/ AND MAY HAVE
A CLEAR SHOT AT THE TEXAS COAST.

[windstorm99]

There are still remnants of the old TUTT in the Eastern Caribbean, and now this new WATL trough is still digging down into the Caribbean. I do not think the models have a good grip on this yet.

[HURAKAN]

Dallas NWS chimes in again this morning...

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...IS STILL FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK /AS A HURRICANE/ AND MAY HAVE
A CLEAR SHOT AT THE TEXAS COAST.

WOW. That's incredible. A really longshot forecast. Good luck.

[stormchazer]

Dallas NWS chimes in again this morning...

TROPICAL STORM DEAN...IS STILL FORECAST TO
ENTER THE GULF OF MEXICO NEXT WEEK /AS A HURRICANE/ AND MAY HAVE
A CLEAR SHOT AT THE TEXAS COAST.

I am glad they are not sensationalizing! That quote looks like the Splash you get on Foxnews or CNN before the pretty anchor comes on to commentate about the coming disaster.

[duris]

I hope this has not been asked and answered before, but IF Dean were to come into the GOM, would TD5 have used up enough potential energy from surface heat to cause any potential weakening? Thanks,

New Orleans AFD says no"

.SHORT TERM...
SFC CHARTS SHOW TD5 ILL-DEFINED THIS MORNING BUT STILL VIGOROUS. A
FEW CIRCULATION CENTERS WERE NOTED EARLIER WITH THE STRONEST
WRAPPING BACK BENEATH THE CENTER OF STRONGEST CONVECTION. A BROAD
DEEP TROUGH STILL EXISTS ACROSS THE DEPRESSION FROM NEAR HOUSTON
SOUTHEASTWARD TO TD5 AND THEN SOUTHWARD TO THE WESTERN YUCATAN.
WAS QUESTIONING IF THIS SYSTEM COULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF HEAT
STORED IN THE SFC LAYERS OF THE GULF. THAT WOULD BE A HUGE NO.
WATER TEMPS OVER THE GULF ARE RUNNING FROM 86 TO 88 DEGREES. SUCH
A DISORGANIZED SYSTEM AS THIS WOULD NOT DO MUCH TO WEAKEN THESE
WATER TEMPS. BUT THIS SYSTEM HAS HELPED US IN ONE WAY BY BASICALLY
ELIMINATING THE HEAT ADVISORY CITERIA. MID TO LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY TRICKLE INTO THE AREA AS TD5 MOVES NW.

[Derek Ortt]

yes, Martinique has the same status in France as does the Savoie region (a department in mainland France) and all other French departments

Guadeloupe (which includes all islands from Guadeloupe, French St Martin, etc) as well is included when I say France since they have the same status as Martinique

[skysummit]

[KWT]

I sure hope this doesn't do what Ivan did to Grenada, it looks like it could be nearly as strong on Derek's forecast, i take it your forecast for Dean make sit the strongest system to hit the region since Ivan?

[HURAKAN]

It seems models don't think the trough will have much of an effect on Dean.

[DESTRUCTION5]

With that guidance this thing would have the greatest potential of becoming something with sick strength..

[HUC]

You can see with the buoys,that Dean is producing strong winds,more than 200kms NO and N of the center...A large enveloppe with a small convective ball..Has a great potential(IMO)to gain in strenght...Remember me Cleo in 1964:same location,same rapid motion,small but compact hurricane,rapid intensification near the islands...and i was in the eye!!!43 years ago!!!Someone get the track of Cleo??

[Ivanhater]

umm..Im not liking the curvature at the end...I really dont think Mexico...I thing us Gommers...after the Islanders of course...are in big trouble next week...Lets stick together