CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[EyELeSs1]

here in antigua i feel really good this morning...relaxed and feel a bit more safe today. In recent years it seems like most of the island storms have tracked way to our south and preparations were never really necessary. Right now i'm just a bit confused as to wether i should be preparing yet considering Dean looks to be moving well to the south of here?

[Steve]

>>WAS QUESTIONING IF THIS SYSTEM COULD REDUCE THE AMOUNT OF HEAT STORED IN THE SFC LAYERS OF THE GULF. THAT WOULD BE A HUGE NO.

I agree. Joe B. tried to address this back in 2005. Said his dad asked him what he thought about the 5 or 6 early systems that had moved through various parts of the Gulf/BOC and would that sap the energy. He thought at some point, it would have to. Then we had Katrina, Rita and Wilma.

When it's this hot, it's this hot. Only some cool eddys(ies) will remain and shouldn't have much of an effect one way or the other. Dean is looking pretty scary now with those tentacles of outflow.

Steve

[WmE]

The track of Cleo 1964.

[skysummit]

umm..Im not liking the curvature at the end...I really dont think Mexico...I thing us Gommers...after the Islanders of course...are in big trouble next week...Lets stick together :eek:

"Let's stick together"

Awesome comment. That's exactly what we need to do here. Enough of this bickering that the models are wrong simple because they're not pointing at you. This storm will have the opportunity to become very devastating to many here.

[Evil Jeremy]

50kt and 997 MB at the next advisory?

[Ivanhater]

umm..Im not liking the curvature at the end...I really dont think Mexico...I thing us Gommers...after the Islanders of course...are in big trouble next week...Lets stick together :eek:

"Let's stick together"

Awesome comment. That's exactly what we need to do here. Enough of this bickering that the models are wrong simple because they're not pointing at you. This storm will have the opportunity to become very devastating to many here.

Exactly...this is pointing at many of us along the gulfcoast..and all of us have been through our share...just have to pull together and pull through...looks like a monster

[miamicanes177]

Hard to believe Accuweather is calling for a Cat 1 over Hispaniola. That sounds off track and too weak.

[HURAKAN]

[Wx_Warrior]

We most think it's a GOM storm. None are really hinging on a weak trough on the SE US...I dont take any model seriously, just like seeing the trends as Dean gets closer then I start judging, especially where the Hs are at....From Mex to Florida, someone will have to harbor him.

[Steve]

>>Not all are in the Due west camp..

Hahahaha You are hanging tough and fighting the good fight. After going after your cold front repost last night, you'll be happy to know that I also went after some ZOMG "GULF! GULF! GULF!" posts.

We don't know what is going to happen until it does. I've got a feeling the models will swing back a time or two more before coming into some type of final solution. I have NO CALL WHATSOEVER on Dean and no hidden agenda to statecast it my way.

I'm just an enthusiast.

Steve

[x-y-no]

Hard to believe Accuweather is calling for a Cat 1 over Hispaniola. That sounds off track and too weak.

They must be looking at yesterday's guidance ... or they're relying on the NOGAPs and ignoring the rest ...

[EyELeSs1]

could this microwave imagery suggest the beginnings of an eye like feature in the lower levels? looks kinda like it

[whereverwx]

Umm... maybe, or it could be an illusion.

[DESTRUCTION5]

>>Not all are in the Due west camp..

Hahahaha You are hanging tough and fighting the good fight. After going after your cold front repost last night, you'll be happy to know that I also went after some ZOMG "GULF! GULF! GULF!" posts.

We don't know what is going to happen until it does. I've got a feeling the models will swing back a time or two more before coming into some type of final solution. I have NO CALL WHATSOEVER on Dean and no hidden agenda to statecast it my way.

I'm just an enthusiast.

Steve

It was not me Steve...

[stormchazer]

50kt and 997 MB at the next advisory?

Shear appears to be history. Appears to be maintaining a moisture envelop. CDO developing. I hate to say this but we may have to use the "H" word soon.

[vaffie]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rudimentary eye form this afternoon--strong tropical storms form them as they approach hurricane strength.

[Steve]

>>Exactly...this is pointing at many of us along the gulfcoast..and all of us have been through our share...just have to pull together and pull through...looks like a monster

Agreed. But when all is said and done, I really think some people who stomp their feet in their obvious state-casting posts should be given an opportunity to admit what they were doing (= ultimately trolling) all along. If I get the time, I'll comb the damn threads myself and cut and paste all those proclimations that will never come to pass.

But for now, all of us are at risk. Most of us (except for some of our friends in the NE and newer residents to the Houston area) have been through some loss of life and/or property from storms in the past. And that includes the islands. We're possibly 7, maybe 8 days away from a life-altering situation for several of our fellow posters. It's a good idea to know where your important documents are, buy some bins for your photos and such if you have to evacuate. You might come home to a molding house in decay (me) or a house with nothing left at all but the slab (just ask Frank P).

It's early yet, but as someone who lost everything from my house to my 3 kids for a year while they attended school in New York State, trust me. It ain't nothing nice.

Steve

[deltadog03]

Here is something graphically to help with someones question of the upper trof moving SE

[Blown Away]

Hard to believe Accuweather is calling for a Cat 1 over Hispaniola. That sounds off track and too weak.

Hasn't JB talking up an EC strike, that would go in line w/ a more N track, I think he mentioned Cleo track or 100 year storm for Georgia, something like that.

[Steve]

My bad. Must have been 92. All this DESTRUCTION around here. Sorry.



Steve