Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[Extremeweatherguy]

I still don't think 1005.1mb is the absolute lowest pressure though. There has to be a more exact center in there that they havn't found yet. I guess we will see..

One thing is for sure: This will be GREAT when it comes into radar view and we can actually make out the center.

[jasons2k]

I still don't think 1005.1mb is the absolute lowest pressure though. There has to be a more exact center in there that they havn't found yet. I guess we will see..

One thing is for sure: This will be GREAT when it comes into radar view and we can actually make out the center.

Actually, that far away we'll be seeing the MLC, not the LLC on radar, so it still won't help us that much.

[Extremeweatherguy]

They are definitely finding more areas of high winds during this mission than during yesterday's. I have seen multiple reports in the 25-30 knot flight-level range with a max flight-level wind so far of 31 knots. The most recent data has a few 29 knot flight-level readings, and it will be interesting to see if they can come across a section with even higher winds than that within the next few reports.

[x-y-no]

I expected more organization of this thing overnight ... Doesn't look likely that we have Erin before 11pm at the earliest at this rate.

Like everyone else, I'm kind of puzzled at the disparity between the satellite presentation and what recon is seeing - but obviously recon is the final word.

[Sanibel]

That compact round spinning CDO leaves rapid intensification a possibility. Storm is NOT spread out according to models. Watch this one it is sending energy all the way across the Gulf and raining over me here.

Dean and 5 are showing negative conditions that kept formation down are still lingering. But you have to compute that if this system manages to finally tap those high SST's the predictable result will occur.

[thetraveler]

Hopefully folks will only have to deal with some rain and a higher than normal tide with this. I am sure most folks here would rather deal with that than deal with the dangerous side of a hurricane.

[DESTRUCTION5]

That compact round spinning CDO leaves rapid intensification a possibility. Storm is NOT spread out according to models. Watch this one it is sending energy all the way across the Gulf and raining over me here.

Dean and 5 are showing negative conditions that kept formation down are still lingering. But you have to compute that if this system manages to finally tap those high SST's the predictable result will occur.

We got 7.5 inches here in Martin yesterday and i know it was semi-realted to our gulf system..

[Extremeweatherguy]

Flight level winds up to 33 knots are now being found. Those are the highest readings so far. If they believe those winds are on the surface too, then that reading is just shy of TS strength.

33 knots = 38mph

[Stratosphere747]

Just got back from the beach. Clear skies, gusts to 5 and no surf. Obvious that a decent looking shield of rain is about to roll in though and winds will pick up, but nothing more than usual.

I'm with Jan - I see no support to be upgraded at 10. Been wrong before though.

[Extremeweatherguy]

It may not become Erin, but based on Recon data I see this at least becoming a 35mph Tropical Depression.

[TexWx]

Just a feeling.. but I could be wrong....
This thing looks like it's about to wrap up...

[Stratosphere747]

Recon will be out there as long as possible with a system like this. It does show indications that it's trying to develop though we have been saying that for almost 24hrs. I can envision them keeping it status quo and issuing a STS if it continues to come together.

[Acral]

All along I have had a hard time seeing this become T.S. Erin. I might be proven wrong shortly, as the imagery is looking better and better.

[TexWx]

Visually, It sure looks like that center is tucked up in the middle somewhere.
To me, it looks like the center is almost directly East of Brownsville, in the photo I posted above.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Strange that after finding pressures of 1005mb through Recon that they leave the 10am advisory at 1006mb.

[Stormcenter]

As long as it's over that steam bath called the GOM it's still
has potential to develop.

[Extremeweatherguy]

RECON just found 44 knot flight level winds!

A STS may need to be issued after that.

[DESTRUCTION5]

TS winds found..

[jwayne]

here we go. 44 knots.

[TexWx]

at the 10 adv. the track shifted south... hmmm?