CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

Hard to believe Accuweather is calling for a Cat 1 over Hispaniola. That sounds off track and too weak.

Hasn't JB talking up an EC strike, that would go in line w/ a more N track, I think he mentioned Cleo track or 100 year storm for Georgia, something like that.

Tropical Storm Dean continues to track quickly westward through the central Atlantic. As of 5 a.m. EDT Wednesday, Tropical Storm Dean is positioned at 12.2 north and 44.2 west, or about 1,170 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Maximum sustained winds of Dean are near 50 mph with higher gusts. Dean is moving to the west at 18 mph and will continue on this general track during the next 48 hours. Afterwards, Dean is forecast to move more to the west-northwest taking it into eastern Caribbean Sea later Friday or Friday night.

Some wind shear in the vicinity of Dean will continue to weaken during the next day or two, allowing Dean to strengthen a little more quickly looking ahead toward the weekend. Dean will also move into slightly warmer waters as it approaches the Lesser Antilles. This will add to the strengthening effect of Dean. With the storm as far south as it is, the opportunity for a strike on the East Coast of the United States will diminish noticeably by the weekend. Presently, a track through the northern Caribbean seems most likely reaching Category 2 or perhaps 3 before interacting with the disrupting higher elevations of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Those in the eastern and northern Caribbean should pay especially close attention to the progress of this storm.

http://hurricane.accuweather.com/hurric ... n=atlantic

[Wx_Warrior]

What time is the next model run?

[Ivanhater]

>>Exactly...this is pointing at many of us along the gulfcoast..and all of us have been through our share...just have to pull together and pull through...looks like a monster

Agreed. But when all is said and done, I really think some people who stomp their feet in their obvious state-casting posts should be given an opportunity to admit what they were doing (= ultimately trolling) all along. If I get the time, I'll comb the damn threads myself and cut and paste all those proclimations that will never come to pass.

But for now, all of us are at risk. Most of us (except for some of our friends in the NE and newer residents to the Houston area) have been through some loss of life and/or property from storms in the past. And that includes the islands. We're possibly 7, maybe 8 days away from a life-altering situation for several of our fellow posters. It's a good idea to know where your important documents are, buy some bins for your photos and such if you have to evacuate. You might come home to a molding house in decay (me) or a house with nothing left at all but the slab (just ask Frank P).

It's early yet, but as someone who lost everything from my house to my 3 kids for a year while they attended school in New York State, trust me. It ain't nothing nice.

Steve

Great post Steve...This is very likely going to be a life-altering event for some along the gulfcoast, and some don't realize it because some want to see the track towards them...but many of us realize the danger coming because we have witnessed the hell up close and personal...at least we have time

[Rainband]

I am liking the trend south. Lets hope it somehow stays out of the GOM or turns around. Hey I can dream can't I?? If this thing makes it into the the GOM two things are a certainty. One.... someone is going to get HIT and HIT Hard. Two..... it may be cheaper to fly than drive this summer.

[DESTRUCTION5]

What time is the next model run?

11:30 post time man..

[artist]

Not all are in the Due west camp..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get Access Forbidden with your link.

[HURAKAN]

[Wx_Warrior]

DESTRUCT...would that be 10:30 Central?

Delta Downs was destroyed with Rita...Missed the t-bred meet because she took the barns with her...OTB finally opened about 5 months later.

[EyELeSs1]

Wouldn't be surprised to see a rudimentary eye form this afternoon--strong tropical storms form them as they approach hurricane strength.

agreed...looks like the inner LLC is becoming tight enough now that signs of a premature eye (very premature) are showing up

[DESTRUCTION5]

Not all are in the Due west camp..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get Access Forbidden with your link.

Could someone fix..I cant figure out why that happens!?

[DESTRUCTION5]

DESTRUCT...would that be 10:30 Central?

Delta Downs was destroyed with Rita...Missed the t-bred meet because she took the barns with her...OTB finally opened about 5 months later.

Fairgrounds still destroyed?

[Evil Jeremy]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

EJ’s Forecasts
TS Dean
Advisory 4
10:30AMEDT

Dean is slowly strengthening as it swiftly moves across the Atlantic. The latest data indicates that Tropical Storm Dean is stronger than last night. The current intensity therefore has been raised to 60 MPH with a 997 MB pressure.

Tropical Storm Dean is still racing across the Atlantic Basin, abit slower than yester and the day before. This fast pace should continue for a couple of more days, but a little slower than previously.

Dean is currently heading west at about 18 MPH. Dean has been gradually slowing down over the past day or so, and that process of slowing down should continue through the next couple days with a continued westward motion, before turning more WNW in a few days.

This morning, most of the computer models are agreeing with each other on a path through the Caribbean through 5 days, while staying under Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. My forecast cone will be adjusted to fit the new models.

Today is going to be a very important day for Tropical Storm Dean. While it is not likely, there is a slight chance that Dean may become a hurricane today, but it will likely be on Thursday or Friday that Dean becomes 2007’s first Atlantic hurricane. Even if Dean doesn’t become a hurricane tomorrow, its intensity will still be very important. The faster it intensifies, the more likely it will take a more northward path.

The center of Tropical Storm Dean is pinpointed at 12.3N and 45.1W.

Interests along the Caribbean, as well as the SE USA and the GOM should closely monitor this system.

Hurricane Watches will likely be issued tonight for the Antilles.

INITIAL 60 MPH
12HR 65 MPH
24HR 70 MPH
48HR 80 MPH
72HR 90 MPH
96HR 100 MPH
120HR 110 MPH

[greels]

Electrical power will be cut here on the Island once the winds hit a certain level......

In desktop exercises held earlier this summer to prepare ourselves for a hurricane or some such weather event, we have been advised by our power company that it will take a minimum of one week for the heavy repair equipment necessary for power restoration to arrive here from the States.

Gretchen

[x-y-no]

Not all are in the Due west camp..

http://euler.atmos.colostate.edu/~vigh/ ... early2.png

I get Access Forbidden with your link.

Could someone fix..I cant figure out why that happens!?

That site forbids hotlinking of images. You have to go to the guidance products page and click on the product you want from there.

[Aric Dunn]

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.

[Brent]

951
WTNT24 KNHC 151435
TCMAT4
TROPICAL STORM DEAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1500 UTC WED AUG 15 2007

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 17 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 50 KT WITH GUSTS TO 60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 45NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 50SE 50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.4N 46.0W AT 15/1500Z
AT 15/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 45.1W

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE 25SE 0SW 25NW.
34 KT... 50NE 50SE 30SW 50NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 30NW.
34 KT... 60NE 60SE 45SW 60NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT... 75NE 60SE 45SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 50NW.
34 KT...100NE 70SE 50SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 225 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 300 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.4N 46.0W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

TROPICAL STORM DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT DEAN HAS A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE
OVERCAST CLOUD PATTERN. HINTS OF A BANDING EYE HAVE BEEN SEEN ON
VISIBLE AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY...AND SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
HAVE BEEN INCREASING. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 50 KT IS A
BLEND OF TAFB/SAB SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KT AND AMSU/AODT
ESTIMATES OF NEAR 55 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE...275/17. A STRONG
DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE LIES TO THE NORTH OF DEAN AND IS FORECAST TO
REMAIN WELL-ESTABLISHED FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NUMERICAL TRACK
FORECAST MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT THE STORM WILL
MAINTAIN THE SAME GENERAL MOTION FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
BEYOND THREE DAYS...THE FATE OF THE STORM WILL BE PARTIALLY
CONTROLLED BY A MIDDLE-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE BAHAMAS.
THIS TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CUT OFF INTO A LOW AND HEAD WESTWARD
UNDER A BUILDING SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES HIGH. MOST OF THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE LOW REMAINING FARTHER AWAY FROM DEAN WITH STRONGER
RIDGING CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN THAN IN
PREVIOUS MODEL RUNS. THIS SOLUTION WOULD FAVOR A MORE WESTWARD
TRACK IN THE LONG-RANGE..AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SHIFTED IN
THAT DIRECTION NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST.

STEADY INTENSIFICATION OF THIS SYSTEM SEEMS TO BE THE BEST BET AS
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LIGHT BY ALL MODELS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES UNDER THE STORM START TO RISE. THE ONLY
NEGATING FACTOR TO INTENSIFICATION MIGHT BE THE ATMOSPHERIC
STABILITY AS SUGGESTED BY THE SHIPS MODEL. HOWEVER...INTENSITY
GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT DEAN WILL BE A HURRICANE BEFORE IT
ENTERS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN. THE GFDL/HWRF/SHIPS MODELS ALL
FORECAST DEAN TO BE A MAJOR HURRICANE BY DAY 5...AND SO DOES THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/1500Z 12.4N 46.0W 50 KT
12HR VT 16/0000Z 12.7N 48.6W 55 KT
24HR VT 16/1200Z 13.1N 52.2W 60 KT
36HR VT 17/0000Z 13.7N 55.8W 65 KT
48HR VT 17/1200Z 14.2N 59.2W 75 KT
72HR VT 18/1200Z 15.5N 66.0W 85 KT
96HR VT 19/1200Z 16.5N 72.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 20/1200Z 18.0N 78.0W 105 KT

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Aric Dunn]

nearing hurricane strength

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DEAN ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
1100 AM AST WED AUG 15 2007

...DEAN STRENGTHENS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC OCEAN...

INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF
DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 1100 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DEAN WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 46.0 WEST OR ABOUT 1045
MILES...1685 KM...EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.

DEAN IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 20 MPH...32 KM/HR...AND THIS
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND
DEAN COULD BECOME A HURRICANE TOMORROW.

DEAN IS A RELATIVELY SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE. TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 50 MILES...85 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 997 MB...29.44 INCHES.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...12.4 N...46.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 20 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
500 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE

[Wx_Warrior]

They had their first meet in 06....Some lives were lost there as some groundskeepers stayed...They were hit hard by Katrina but eventually opened and raced about a year or so later.

[EyELeSs1]

"Satellite images indicate that Dean has a small central dense
overcast cloud pattern. Hints of a banding eye have been seen on
visible and microwave imagery"

definitely appeared so as we thought earlier