CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

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#2541 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:35 am

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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#2542 Postby Ivanhater » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:35 am

Ok reviewing the 500mb charts...there is is trough crossing the central US as Dean crosses the gulf..Look at the 00UTC 500mb chart at 204..showing shortwave trough breaking the high in 2... Image

Look at the 500mb chart on the 06UTC
Image
Trough still coming across the US..however Dean is moving much faster in that run...Timing is everything..but looks like the ridge will erode over the gulf, just when?
Last edited by Ivanhater on Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:36 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2543 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:35 am

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Re:

#2544 Postby cycloneye » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:35 am




Posted in the wrong thread. :)
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#2545 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:36 am

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#2546 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:38 am

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Scorpion

#2547 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:38 am

We must all remember what happened with Ernesto as the models significantly overplayed the strength of the ridge. Not letting my guard down just yet.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models=12z GFS is rolling in

#2548 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:39 am

Will be interesting to see whether this run has it going into Mexico again or not. Could we really have a westward runner all the way through?
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#2549 Postby whereverwx » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:39 am

An eye-like feature is becoming more apparent on the infrared.

Image
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#2550 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:39 am

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#2551 Postby HURAKAN » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:39 am

Image

Now we're talking.
Last edited by HURAKAN on Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:41 am, edited 2 times in total.
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Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#2552 Postby Sanibel » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:40 am

My NHC satellite wasn't loading due to traffic so I had to use RAMSDIS which was on such an oblique angle that it exaggerated the wobble. I finally got an NHC overhead and see it is just a CDO wobble within the forecasted track. It IS pulling up, but on NHC's gradual curve.

IMO, flames aren't necessary. They're unprofessional.

The way to tell it is a wobble is to look at the outside surface bands that stay steady west.
Last edited by Sanibel on Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:42 am, edited 1 time in total.
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#2553 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:40 am

Wow... I think Dean becomes a hurricane this afternoon
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#2554 Postby Scorpion » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:41 am

Latest image:

Image
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Re: TS Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#2555 Postby artist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:41 am

Just want it known that I am watching an praying with you all on the islands as well.
Hopefully Drek will give you updates as needed here and other mets as well.
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Re:

#2556 Postby redstick » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:41 am

Scorpion wrote:We must all remember what happened with Ernesto as the models significantly overplayed the strength of the ridge. Not letting my guard down just yet.



Not likely, considering the amount of strengthening that is forecasted.
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#2557 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:42 am

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#2558 Postby x-y-no » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:43 am

36 hours:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... _036.shtml

Looks like a slightly more northerly track so far this run.
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#2559 Postby KFDM Meteorologist » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:44 am

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#2560 Postby KWT » Wed Aug 15, 2007 10:44 am

Yep the 12z is faster still then the 06z, about 6hrs faster if that makes sense. its also a touch further north in comprasion to the 06z run, the 12z run as far north at 24hrs as the 06z at 36hrs, so not a lot but a touch.
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