CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[HURAKAN]

:uarrow: That image is old from 9:45 UTC.

Luis, it says 1545 UTC.

[vacanechaser]

102 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

that ridge building in to the north, with that angle on western side looks interesting.. that might start the pull northwest, unless dean is to far south..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Scorpion]

Keep in mind that the GFS is underdoing the intensity of Dean from the beginning.. a strong Dean will shift the track more poleward.

[KWT]

Its about 0.7 degrees further south then the 06z run and is heading just north of west, going to hit S.Yucatan/Belize if it remains on the same track.

[Wx_Warrior]

Drastic changes each run fans.....No need for me to say it again but you guys asked for a crazy one and you got it!

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

I would like to think that the GFS run is accurate as now shown, but I'm afraid that until we get some recon and upper air samples to determine the strength of the ridge and the strength of the tutt and approaching trough, it is all guesswork right now for the models and us. The models are just going off of their same data and assumptions for now. Once we get solid recon numbers in the models, then we can take them seriously.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_114l.gif

[SouthFloridawx]

102 500
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_102l.gif

that ridge building in to the north, with that angle on western side looks interesting.. that might start the pull northwest, unless dean is to far south..
Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

Let's also remember that when Dean, becomes a Hurricane and then a more intense system, well get better input into the forecast models.

[vacanechaser]

JMHO, but I believe this GFS run is going to plow into Belize.

From what i've read from the pro mets,GFS is not a very reliable model,right??

yes and no.. some at the nhc really like the model.. the key is going to be when the G4 gets out there tomorrow.. that is going to be a huge help for all the models as they will sample the surrounding upper levels and get a better picture of whats going on out there..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Ivanhater]

Ridge breaking down over gulf...depends if dean is to far south to feel it

[KWT]

NW direction between 108-114hrs, maybe starting to lift up to the NW round the outside of the ridge.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

114 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_114l.gif

[skysummit]

Boy....you'd think a northwest turn would be coming up soon unless he's too far to the south.

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Yea i just don't see it that far south!

[Kennethb]

gfs does not show a strong storm. Stronger storm, more latitude???

[Ivanhater]

Boy....you'd think a northwest turn would be coming up soon unless he's too far to the south.

Yep ridge breaking down to near alabama...well see

[Opal storm]

gfs does not show a strong storm. Stronger storm, more latitude???

Yes, I think this run is a bit too far south.

[msbee]

Thank you for all of your responses.

Yes, we do have challenges that the US do not have and I am worried that our interests, basically our lives do not get set aside. We have families, friends, our lives are in the islands.

I just want to say that all of the Dean threads seem to be pushing the cart before the horse.

Cannot we all gather together here in the basin, ask for expert advice without the armchair mets to know exactly what is going on and where?

Vieques, Salinas, San Juan, Ponce, Isabella, all of Puerto Rico. But let us not forget

Culebra
Us Virgin Islands
British Virgin Islands
St Croix to the south
Angilla
Saba
St Kitts
Nevis
Antigua
Montserrat
Guadeloupe
Dominica
Martinique
St. Lucia
St. Vincent
Off to east Barbados
Grenada
Trinidad and Tobago

I could probably name every cay on each island and I am sure I missed a few. My father was a Geography Professer at one of the major US universities. I knew every inch of the caribbean since I was a child.

I grew to love them before I came to live here but I know for a fact, this is my home and only home matters.

So please let us get back to basics and worry about the horse for now. 8 days out we can worry about the cart.

Please, that is all I ask.

I do not know if you realize when you live on a island a a hurricane strikes, you cannot run away.

It must be nice to have I-95 running in both directions getting you out..

On my island we do not have a traffic light.

How do you think we feel when we depend on a ferry that probably not run for days? That is our food?

Oops forgot, you always have Publix. Sorry.

yes, you forgot me, as irina posted. St. Maarten reporting in here.
we are carefully watching. People are out today preparing. I see the gas stations are busy.
The harbor is preparing. Mariners are urged to get their boats in the lagoon for safety as we do expect high seas.
read our daily paper here for the latest
http://www.thedailyherald.com/
you can also check this site for our official forecast.. the met office is monitoring it all.
http://www.meteo.an/

[chaupal]

Looks like it will move south of Jamaica.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yep....I cant wait to see EURO...This something else.