CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[vacanechaser]

gfs does not show a strong storm. Stronger storm, more latitude???

very true.. seems the gfs is weakening dean a bit too.. that will have a huge role in everything as well.. i just dont think that this run is on track... just looks to far south to me.. and if the latest motion continues, it may be all wrong.. does look a bit off track in the vis loop.. looks like it may have moved more northerly.. could be a wobble, will have to wait till later this afternoon as more images come in to see.



Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[KFDM Meteorologist]

132 HR

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_132l.gif

[Ivanhater]

Yucatan hit

[DESTRUCTION5]

this weakening crap is so far off its not even funny...This thing has the potential to be floatingin the W Carribean at 180 MPH!

[KFDM Meteorologist]

132 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_132l.gif

[Opal storm]

This is looking a lot like an Isidore track, maybe.

[vacanechaser]

Yucatan hit

yep.. interesting to say the least... looks out to lunch for sure this run..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[JPmia]

JMHO, but I believe this GFS run is going to plow into Belize.

From what i've read from the pro mets,GFS is not a very reliable model,right??

yes and no.. some at the nhc really like the model.. the key is going to be when the G4 gets out there tomorrow.. that is going to be a huge help for all the models as they will sample the surrounding upper levels and get a better picture of whats going on out there..


Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

I agree, I have a feeling we will see some more changes (possibly significant) to the model outputs once we get that plane data from the surrounding environment...i've seen this happen before once they fly in and around these storms and then plug the data into the model. We shall see!

[Bgator]

Can any Pro Met's give there opinion on the GFS? I know Derek doesnt like GFS, but what about anyone else?

[PTrackerLA]

This is looking a lot like an Isidore track, maybe.

I was JUST about to mention that after see the 500 image. I would expect Dean to be turning NW at this point.

[windstorm99]

Actually iam thinking more like gilbert or allen...

[Ivanhater]

Look at north america...wth...Ridge broken in 2 over gulf
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/namer/gfs/12/fp0_132.shtml

[DESTRUCTION5]

Actually iam thinking more like gilbert or allen...

THis run looks like Iris

[vacanechaser]

This is looking a lot like an Isidore track, maybe.

its even starting to look like it in the sat images.. huge band developing and wraping around the system just isidore did..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[ConvergenceZone]

that's good that the GFS is taking it further south. Hopefully it will miss all the islands and then Mexico may need to keep an eye out for this one

[wxfollower]

could the southward track be because the GFS still has Dean at 998? I am sure before it gets to the 132 hour mark it will become much stronger than that. I dunno, what you say?

[windstorm99]

This is looking a lot like an Isidore track, maybe.

its even starting to look like it in the sat images.. huge band developing and wraping around

the system just isidore did..

Jesse V. Bass III
http://www.vastormphoto.com
Hurricane Intercept Research Team

[Bgator]

It looks like Dean is a bit north of the NHC path for now...Maybe just a wobble.

[StormWarning1]

could the southward track be because the GFS still has Dean at 998? I am sure before it gets to the 132 hour mark it will become much stronger than that. I dunno, what you say?

It is staying weak because of shear.

[cycloneye]

:uarrow: That image is old from 9:45 UTC.

Luis, it says 1545 UTC.

I didnt refreshed it.