Tropical Depression ERIN: Discussions, Analysis and Imagery

[HURAKAN]

That's because the 10 AM advisory was on a different location compared to the 1030 AM advisory. The RECON found a new center to the north of the previous, nevertheless, it doesn't mean the system is moving north.

[Lowpressure]

From what I see, the landfall point may not be all that important here. This is a good size system but most heavy rain seems to be on the northern semi circle of the system. South of landfall may not see much at all. Things can change rapidly but it looks like on the Texas coast anywhere north of landfall you are in for some heavy rain and gusty winds. Portions of LA as well.

[Extremeweatherguy]

That's because the 10 AM advisory was on a different location compared to the 1030 AM advisory. The RECON found a new center to the north of the previous, nevertheless, it doesn't mean the system is moving north.

hmm..well if that is the case, then I would expect the 5pm track to be shifted a bit further north too.

[Downdraft]

Anyone remember Georges? I believe AccuWeather talked Galveston into evacuating and the storm went into Mexico. One of their more famous "oops" that they don't seem to remember.

[HurricaneHunter914]

Starting to get cloudy here in Missouri City. Looks like I should be expecting a downpour from one of Erin's feeder bands in a few hours. I wonder what the 12:30 Advisory will say.

[GalvestonDuck]

Anyone remember Georges? I believe AccuWeather talked Galveston into evacuating and the storm went into Mexico. One of their more famous "oops" that they don't seem to remember.

I moved down here during Georges. I don't recall anything about an evacuation here. But I got caught up in all the evacuation traffic and booked hotels from Alabama and into Louisiana. I do know a lot of people were still talking about Frances and the damage she caused at the Kemah Boardwalk.

[HURAKAN]

That's because the 10 AM advisory was on a different location compared to the 1030 AM advisory. The RECON found a new center to the north of the previous, nevertheless, it doesn't mean the system is moving north.

hmm..well if that is the case, then I would expect the 5pm track to be shifted a bit further north too.

TROPICAL STORM ERIN SPECIAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052007
1130 AM EDT WED AUG 15 2007

TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ERIN
BASED ON DATA FORM A NOAA HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE. THE CENTER WAS
FOUND A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION...AND
THEREFORE THE INITIAL AND 12 HOUR LOCATIONS HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED
SLIGHTLY. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS ALSO BEEN INCREASED SLIGHTLY
AND NOW ERIN IS FORECAST TO REACH THE COAST WITH WINDS OF 45 KNOTS.
NO CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE REQUIRED.

[Duddy]

Seriously, the Center is due East and just a tad North of a straight line from Brownsville. If it continues heading WNW, there is no way in hell it will follow the track the NHC is forecasting right now.

[vaffie]

I expect that the center will again reform to the north over the next 6 hours where the deepest convection is currently at (26.42 north).

[mgpetre]

From a rain perspective... Is the low expected to continue west into Mexico/New Mexico or stall in TX?

[Extremeweatherguy]

I expect that the center will again reform to the north over the next 6 hours where the deepest convection is currently at (26.42 north).

I suspect it is already there. After the first recon left, the center probably continued repositioning north into the center of that convection.

[jhamps10]

From a rain perspective... Is the low expected to continue west into Mexico/New Mexico or stall in TX?

Looks like NHC has it curving more northwest once inland, New Mexico for sure.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Center looks to be due east and slightly north of Brownsville right now. It would have to move pretty much due west from this point onward to verify the 11am forecast track.

[Brent]

AT 100 PM CDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ERIN WAS
ESTIMATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 93.8 WEST OR ABOUT
210 MILES...340 KM...EAST OF BROWNSVILLE AND ABOUT 260 MILES...415
KM...EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS. SATELLITE IMAGES
SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER COULD BE REFORMING A LITTLE BIT TO THE
NORTH...WITHIN THE MAIN AREA OF THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. IF THIS IS
CONFIRMED...THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING COULD BE EXTENDED
NORTHEASTWARD LATER TODAY.

[Extremeweatherguy]

...Erin heading toward the Texas coast...

A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for the Texas coast from
Freeport southward. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical
storm conditions are expected within the warning area within the
next 24 hours.

A tropical storm watch remains in effect for the northeast coast of
Mexico from Rio San Fernando northward.
For storm information specific to your area...including possible
inland watches and warnings...please monitor products issued
by your local weather office.

At 100 PM CDT...1800z...the center of Tropical Storm Erin was
estimated near latitude 26.0 north...longitude 93.8 west or about
210 miles...340 km...east of Brownsville and about 260 miles...415
km...east-southeast of Corpus Christi Texas. Satellite images
suggest that the center could be reforming a little bit to the
north...within the main area of thunderstorm activity. If this is
confirmed...the Tropical Storm Warning could be extended
northeastward later today.

Erin is moving toward the west-northwest near 12 mph...19 km/hr...
and this motion is expected to continue during the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of Erin is forecast to be near the lower or
middle Texas coast Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph...65 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is possible before landfall on Thursday.
Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 70 miles...110 km
to the east of the center. Some rainbands with gusty winds are
already approaching the Texas coast.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.
Total rain accumulations of 3 to 5 inches are possible along the
middle Texas coast...with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches.
Repeating the 100 PM CDT position...26.0 N...93.8 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 12 mph. Maximum sustained winds...40
mph. Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
400 PM CDT.

hmm.. Things are getting interesting now. It seems a 5pm track shift north is now very very likely.

[Ed Mahmoud]

Anyone remember Georges? I believe AccuWeather talked Galveston into evacuating and the storm went into Mexico. One of their more famous "oops" that they don't seem to remember.

That was Gilbert, and I have talked to Joe Bastardi about that. A NOVA special from about ten years ago gave AccuWeather a bad rap about that. IIRC, Joe told me that Galveston was advised that Gilbert could possibly get that far North, but that was never the AW forecast, and the city jumped the gun and ordered evacuations. Joe wanted to rebut that NOVA report, suspecting some NOAA/NHC people fed them bad propaganda, but Dr. Sobel advised it would be best to just drop it.

[Cellrock]

Hey all

Long time lurker, first time posting.

so if the center is now relocating to the north,does that cut some hours off of landfall?
also didn't alica do the same thing and stalled?

[Johnny]

Hey EWG, did you read Joe B's noon blog? Pretty interesting. On a side note.. It looks like he is also starting to back off with a Florida hit with Dean.

[bigGbear]

Brownsville long range radar now operating - what a strange storm behavior!

[Ed Mahmoud]

Brownsville long range radar now operating - what a strange storm behavior!

Probably just an illusion, but both BRO & CRP radars in long range seem to show a clear area, that almost looks like a circulation center, not all that far offshore.