Tropical Storm Erin: Personal Forecasts

[Evil Jeremy]

Allow me to start the personal forecast train.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

The bolded yellow area is where I recommend Tropical Storm Watches. Remember, these watchs or track are not official, and this is my view of the storm.

[Extremeweatherguy]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

My early prediction is a general WNW track (with a few W and NW wobbles at times) toward the TX coast. Landfall will be Thursday morning as a moderate to strong tropical storm north of Corpus Christi and south of Galveston (with a track more likely closer to Corpus than to Galveston). Worst case scenario would probably be a Cat. 1 landfall and the best case scenario would be for this to remain a TD or weak TS. We will need to monitor this closely tonight and tomorrow for any signs of rapid organization.

[Chacor]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I don't normally do Atlantic systems, so heh. The depression doesn't have much time to strengthen. Given what Franklin said - it's an assumption he made that the LLCC became better defined - this thing could still fall apart easily. Given the heat content in the region it might not, but I'm looking only at a minimal 35 kt TS at best and not 40, depending on how long it takes to get its act together - if it still has a weak LLCC.

[Coredesat]

CTCC Disclaimer: These products are unofficial and are not certified by NOAA, the National Weather Service, the National Hurricane Center, or any official RSMC or forecasting agency and may be subject to large errors. Refer to their products for official updates.

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Tropical Depression (05L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #1 - 0300 UTC 15 August 2007

...Tropical depression develops in the central Gulf of Mexico...

Estimated Position: 24.2°N 90.8°W (confidence poor)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 25 knots (30 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1008 hPa
Movement: WNW at 8 knots

OFFICIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Tropical Storm Watch - Freeport, Texas to Rio San Fernando, Mexico

DISCUSSION

According to the National Hurricane Center and Air Force reconnaissance aircraft, a tropical disturbance in the central Gulf of Mexico has become a tropical depression (05L). However, this system has a very poorly-defined circulation center on the southwestern edge of a small area of convection, and the recon was not able to issue a center fix on the system despite finding winds in all directions. The system appears to be in an unfavorable area for development due to a strong upper-level low over northern Mexico. Dvorak estimates were T2.0/2.0 from SAB and T1.0/1.0 from TAFB.

The upper level low currently shearing the system is expected to continue moving westward, which would reduce the shear and allow for continued development. However, the system is already fairly close to land, so any development should be slow and gradual prior to landfall just north of the Texas-Mexico border. Of course, this is assuming the weak circulation center survives. The intensity forecast assumes it does and calls for only slight strengthening prior to landfall.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...24.2°N 90.8°W...25 kt
12 hr...24.6°N 92.1°W...25 kt
24 hr...25.1°N 93.5°W...30 kt
36 hr...25.6°N 95.0°W...35 kt
48 hr...26.2°N 96.6°W...35 kt
72 hr...27.5°N 99.0°W...25 kt...inland dissipating

The next forecast will be issued around 1500 UTC. Refer to products from the National Hurricane Center for more information on this system.

[Beam]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

TD5 has the potential to intensify to hurricane strength before reaching the lower Texas coast on Thursday - However, I'm gonna low-ball it somewhat this time around, and only forecast a strong tropical storm making landfall around the Corpus Christi/Kingsville area around noontime on Thursday. That's my call for now. We'll see how things look in the morning. Either way, this is going to be a huge pain for southern Texas, flood-wise.

[Beam]

The following post is not an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Slightly further south now, and landfalling a few hours earlier. no huge change to the previous forecast. Still a strong TS at landfall. As you can see, Dean's cone is showing up on there in all it's ominous glory. Looks a bit more threatening, no?

EDIT: They upgraded it right as I posted, graphic had to be redone.

[Evil Jeremy]

[Coredesat]

Tropical Storm Erin (05L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #2 - 1800 UTC 15 August 2007

...Depression strengthens into Tropical Storm Erin just off the Texas coast...

Estimated Position: 26.3°N 94.2°W (confidence poor)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 knots (40 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Movement: WNW at 8 knots

At 2100 UTC the estimated position was 26.4°N 94.6°W.

OFFICIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Tropical Storm Warning - Freeport, Texas to Texas-Mexico Border

Tropical Storm Watch - Rio San Fernando, Mexico to Texas-Mexico Border

DISCUSSION

Air Force reconnaissance observations indicate that the depression in the western Gulf of Mexico has strengthened into Tropical Storm Erin (05L). As the upper level low causing shear over the system has moved away, convection has increased in coverage, although the center remains very poorly defined and on the southwest edge of the convection. The system has also accelerated over the past 12 hours as it is steered west-northwestward by a high pressure ridge over the southeastern US. Dvorak estimates remain T2.0/2.0 from SAB and TAFB, so the intensity is increased only to 35 kt.

CIMSS layer mean wind analysis maps show that steering currents in the area have increased since last night, which would explain Erin's faster forward speed. The model guidance indicates landfall within 18-24 hours and agrees on an extrapolated track based on its current motion. Therefore, the forecast indicates a continued west-northwestward track with little change in strength. Some strengthening is possible prior to landfall, although this forecast will not reflect that possibility given proximity to land.


Original image is Copyright 2007 DigitalGlobe. Photoshop is not working properly for some reason.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...26.3°N 94.2°W...35 kt
12 hr...27.0°N 95.8°W...40 kt
24 hr...27.6°N 97.4°W...30 kt...inland
36 hr...28.5°N 99.2°W...25 kt...inland dissipating
48 hr...dissipated

The next forecast will be issued around 0600 UTC. Refer to products from the National Hurricane Center for more information on this system.

[StormScanWx]

Coredesat, Beam, and Evil Jeremy,

Are all of your forecasts "photoshopped"?

Coredesat, it looks like the Tracking the Eye program?

[Evil Jeremy]

Coredesat, Beam, and Evil Jeremy,

Are all of your forecasts "photoshopped"?

Coredesat, it looks like the Tracking the Eye program?

yea. I use fireworks with the skeetobite maps. I might switch to Google Earth for future forecast maps.

[Coredesat]

Coredesat, Beam, and Evil Jeremy,

Are all of your forecasts "photoshopped"?

Coredesat, it looks like the Tracking the Eye program?

Yes, I use the base maps in Tracking the Eye, although I am probably going to switch to NASA World Wind since those are easier to scale (and are public domain).

I use Tracking the Eye to plot out my tracks, then assemble them in Photoshop.

[Coredesat]

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

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Tropical Storm Erin (05L)
Tropical Cyclone Warning - Atlantic
Forecast #3 - 0600 UTC 16 August 2007

...Erin slowly beginning to move ashore...

Estimated Position: 27.1°N 95.9°W (confidence poor)
Maximum Sustained Winds: 35 knots (40 mph)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 hPa
Movement: WNW at 10 knots

OFFICIAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS

Tropical Storm Warning - San Luis Pass, Texas to Brownsville, Texas

DISCUSSION

Erin (05L) consists mainly of a blob of convection north and east of a poorly-defined low-level circulation center. This area of convection has increased in coverage but only to the north and east; areas to the south and west of the center are mostly devoid of convective activity. The convection associated with Erin has no banding to speak of, though some minor outflow is present. The convective mass is currently crossing the coast of southeastern Texas, although the center should not make landfall for about 6-12 hours. Latest Dvorak estimates were T2.5/2.5 from SAB and TAFB, and the intensity remains 35 kt.

Given Erin's failure to fire significant convection in other areas of its weak circulation, no significant strengthening is expected prior to landfall, which is forecast to be just to the north of Corpus Christi, Texas.



FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

Init...27.1°N 95.9°W...35 kt
12 hr...28.1°N 97.5°W...35 kt...inland
24 hr...29.1°N 99.2°W...25 kt...dissipating
36 hr...30.1°N 101.0°W...25 kt...dissipating
48 hr...dissipated

The next forecast will be issued around 1800 UTC. Refer to products from the National Hurricane Center for more information on this system.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Review of my forecast (which I made on Tuesday 8/14)...

Landfall point - I was dead on. I called for a hit north of Corpus and south of Galveston, and that seems to be exactly what happened.

Intensity - I was off when it came to intensity. I called for a moderate to strong TS and this only came ashore as a weak TS.

Time - I called for a landfall on Thursday morning, and that was correct.

Overall, I would say my forecast was fairly decent.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Review of my forecast...

Landfall point - I was dead on. I called for a hit north of Corpus and south of Galveston, and that seems to be exactly what happened.

Intensity - I was off when it came to intensity. I called for a moderate to strong TS and this only came ashore as a weak TS.

Overall, I would say my forecast was fairly decent.

I give you props..YOu called it..