CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Extremeweatherguy]

I no longer think it is moving 285...It looks like the past hour or so it has gone back to 270..or due west.

http://mkwc.ifa.hawaii.edu/satellite/sa ... verlay=off

do this loop and you will beg to differ with yourself...

The NHC loop shows a nearly straight west movement has resumed..

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-ir2.html

Also if you use the overlay you can see it is perfectly on track right now.

[tolakram]

Anybody notice newest HWRF and GFDL weaken Dean to a minimal tropical storm in the Caribbean, and that is before they both hit Jamaica with it.


I wonder what both models are seeing that they want to weaken Dean so much.

To me it seems obvious. Everyone has hopped on the hurricane Dean bandwagon but it's not a hurricane yet, is pulling in dry air, and is running out of tropical moisture to pull out of the zone. I'm probably wrong, of course, but I can't imagine this thing strengthening with all that dry air around.

Maybe what I'm missing is the fact it can pull it out of the warm ocean?

[Brent]

It's had dry air around it the entire time though...

The main thing is the shear is gone, I don't see any reason why this won't be a hurricane if not at 11 then tomorrow morning.

[Derek Ortt]

I am not sure why HWRF and GFDL are weaker than the GFS itself. Does not really make any sense

['CaneFreak]

and 1008 is a very good initialization of a storm of this intensity by a global model

The GFS has its problems, but this initialization is not one of them

thats true....i almost forgot about that...doesnt it have something to do with how that particular model is gridded? doesnt that have something to do with why the pressures are off by so much? like a 980 mb low in the GFS equates to about a cat 4 or 5 or something like that...

[Sanibel]

Interesting that Dean wobbled due west just now. I didn't expect that. Maybe Luis was right about stair-stepping. If so, watch for another NW jog later tonight.

[marcane_1973]

Lets say Dean is a cat 3 or 4 and crosses over the entire Yucatan Peninsula shouldnt that knock him down a bit before he gets to Mexico or Texas?

[swimaway19]

Looking at that IR loop link from the Mauna Kea Weather Center, look how much Dean has grown in the past 12 hours. It appears that it has increased in size by almost 1/3

[vaffie]

dynamical models are not initialized with an artificial forward speed.

They merely solve the equations of the atmosphere and move the storm accordingly. Does not matter if the storm is moving north or west initially

A question for you, then, Derek. Does that mean that they don't take into account momentum, such as that of a very big fast-moving storm like is predicted south of Cuba in 5 days?

[gerrit]

why can't we get 747's in there to evac??? Seriously...

Well.. if you wanted to evacuate Puerto Rico, you would need around 10,000 flights with a 747, from 1 airport.
(4 million people live here - 747 capacity something like 400). Practically impossible..

[tolakram]

So what's happening in that lower blob? Is that the moisture coming in?

[Brent]

Lets say Dean is a cat 3 or 4 and crosses over the entire Yucatan Peninsula shouldnt that knock him down a bit before he gets to Mexico or Texas?

Yeah, see Emily, she hit as a 4 and weakened to a 1, but made final landfall as a 3.

[Ed Mahmoud]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

[Brent]

So what's happening in that lower blob? Is that the moisture coming in?

I bet it will be... probably will have a scary looking blob with a visible eye tomorrow.

[hial2]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

Hawaai in the crosshairs this year...

[Cryomaniac]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

I know it's important info, but it's massively off topic in this thread. And also: http://www.prh.noaa.gov/ptwc/messages/h ... 235448.txt

BASED ON ALL AVAILABLE DATA A DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS
NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII. REPEAT. A
DESTRUCTIVE PACIFIC-WIDE TSUNAMI IS NOT EXPECTED AND THERE IS NO
TSUNAMI THREAT TO HAWAII.

[jrod]

7.9 earthquake in El Peru, tsunami warning for Hawai'i

off topic, but wow. it was 25 miles deep so that should lessen the chance of a tsunami.

[tracyswfla]

why can't we get 747's in there to evac??? Seriously...

Well.. if you wanted to evacuate Puerto Rico, you would need around 10,000 flights with a 747, from 1 airport.
(4 million people live here - 747 capacity something like 400). Practically impossible..

I know, its just a helpless feeling for all of you!

[CronkPSU]

So what's happening in that lower blob? Is that the moisture coming in?

IT'S GONE FUJIWHARA!!!

just kidding

[wxwatcher91]

Can anyone give me any information / statistics on the CLP5 model? A link would do fine as well. Thanks.