CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[jasons2k]

I've got my fellow Texans back - But it is way to early to openly speculate about a track towards the Texas coast. Lets deal with the potential impacts to the islands and then look at the models once the NOAA info is digested.

We've been down this road just last year.

We go down that road every time the GFS runs.

Post of the day!!

BTW - I haven't gotten a drop of rain all day from "Erin". I feel like I just got home from a bad date and just wasted the last 12 hours of my life. Time to re-focus...

[sevenleft]

I have a really bad gut feeling that Dean will hit the Antillies. Anyone else heve that gut feeling?

No, I don't have that gut feeling, but I do share the same thoughts as the NHC and every single meteorologist in the world that thinks it will hit the Antilles....

[deltadog03]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.




ok....round 2...


Shot at 2007-08-15

[Brent]

I have a really bad gut feeling that Dean will hit the Antillies. Anyone else heve that gut feeling?

Uh... yeah. It's headed right for them?

[HURAKAN]

[Blown Away]

When do the 00Z models come out?

[Stratosphere747]

I've got my fellow Texans back - But it is way to early to openly speculate about a track towards the Texas coast. Lets deal with the potential impacts to the islands and then look at the models once the NOAA info is digested.

We've been down this road just last year.

yes we have...Seems like Rita all over again huh Strat?....

True, plus remember last year Ernesto was pegged to come calling our way as a possible major. I'd not be surprised one bit once the NOAA flights are run and we have some sweeping changes to the track. After that and we still have something heading towards the Yucatan/NW Caribbean, then it might be time to take a truly serious look at Dean.

[Derek Ortt]

SSF T number was increased from 3.0/3.0 to 3.5/3.5 and I have no disagreement with 55KT as the initial intensity (it's what I went with afterall)

[Evil Jeremy]

I have a really bad gut feeling that Dean will hit the Antillies. Anyone else heve that gut feeling?

Uh... yeah. It's headed right for them?

I meant to say this in a sarcastic way because evryone is posting "i have a gut feeling that this will go.....".

[Blown Away]

Is it me or has Dean slowed down over the past few hours?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/loop-avn.html

[Normandy]

HUGE blowup of convection over the center of Dean..I think its time to get worried now (if you werent already). Good luck to those in the islands

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastnheir.html

[sevenleft]

I don't know what to call that shape that it has right now...with the tight cdo with the deep convective band hanging off of it..but that shape seems indicative of a fairly rapidly intensifying cyclone. We've observed the same in the last few years.

[boca]

When do the 00Z models come out?

The 00z usually comes out around 11.30 to 12:30 time frame.

[Normandy]

IMO Dean will become a hurricane at the very least by tommorrow morning....looks really bad for the islands unfortunately. Anyone here in the middle winwards?

[CronkPSU]

I don't know what to call that shape that it has right now...with the tight cdo with the deep convective band hanging off of it..but that shape seems indicative of a fairly rapidly intensifying cyclone. We've observed the same in the last few years.

best described by someone here as "the fist"

[SouthFloridawx]

Ok, thanks man... thats basically what I needed to know.

[skysummit]

Dean is about to move into an OUTSTANDINGLY GREAT upper level environment.

[cpdaman]

i live in south florida and i feel a bit of a relief when MAX (the forecaster i have the most respect for) says that is expected to stay on the southern track, that shows me has confidence that the ridge, despite any slight changes in models, is gonna be in charge

p.s on a side note, the hawaii (possible) story would be so ironic, i mean you miss a hurricane that stall and dies over you, then maybe a tsunami (ok now back to dean)

[CronkPSU]

i live in south florida and i feel a bit of a relief when MAX (the forecaster i have the most respect for) says that is expected to stay on the southern track, that shows me has confidence that the ridge, despite any slight changes in models, is gonna be in charge

p.s on a side note, the hawaii (possible) story would be so ironic, i mean you miss a hurricane that stall and dies over you, then maybe a tsunami (ok now back to dean)

plus they had their own 5.0 earthquake yesterday as well...talk about the weather having it out for ya!!!

[ConvergenceZone]

I wonder where Dean4Storms is?? I miss seeing that guy around... Perhaps he didn't want to see his name used in vain?