Tropical Depression SEPAT: Discussions, Analysis and Image

#81 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 3:55 pm

It is now a Cat 5 on the SSHS from the JTWC.

wxmann_91 · #82 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:01 pm

WindRunner wrote:Cooled? Should be interesting to watch late into tonight . . . can't wait for vis!

Also interesting to see that both JMA and JTWC strengthen it further . . . sadly, they might be underdoing it a little, as is common with forecasting storms of this intensity . . .

Powerful storms have a warm eye, not a cool eye.

The eye has cooled further and has continued to contract. As I stated earlier, with the atmospheric instability about, and the DMAX helping, I wouldn't rule out a new ring of convection forming and consolidating into an outer eyewall.

#83 Postby **P.K.** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 4:27 pm

WindRunner wrote:Also interesting to see that both JMA and JTWC strengthen it further . . . sadly, they might be underdoing it a little, as is common with forecasting storms of this intensity . . .

The RSMC Tokyo typhoon model on at least the last two runs has taken this sub 900hPa with winds in the region of 125kts. Now this may be like that GFDL Ioke run last year but we'll have to wait and see.

wxmann_91 · #84 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:37 pm

P.K. wrote:
WindRunner wrote:Also interesting to see that both JMA and JTWC strengthen it further . . . sadly, they might be underdoing it a little, as is common with forecasting storms of this intensity . . .

The RSMC Tokyo typhoon model on at least the last two runs has taken this sub 900hPa with winds in the region of 125kts. Now this may be like that GFDL Ioke run last year but we'll have to wait and see.

Where can I find that model?

first visible

wxmann_91 · #85 Postby **wxmann_91** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 5:43 pm

shoot. The latest SSMI pass barely missed the inner core of Sepat.

I mean, come on!

#86 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:08 pm

Latest visible is out on NRL, I'm speechless. It's stunning.

#87 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:13 pm

An incredible looking system...I hope we don't have something like that in the Caribbean soon.

#88 Postby **Dave C** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 7:44 pm

The stadium affect is awesome :eek:

#89 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:09 pm

Up to 110kts now from JMA. Strongest storm of this year and equalling the strongest storm of last year if I'm not mistaken.

TY 0708 (SEPAT)
Issued at 00:00 UTC, 16 August 2007RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME TY 0708 SEPAT (0708)

ANALYSIS
PSTN 160000UTC 17.3N 126.5E GOOD
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
50KT 100NM
30KT 240NM SOUTHEAST 200NM NORTHWEST

FORECAST
24HF 170000UTC 20.8N 123.8E 90NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 910HPA
MXWD 110KT
GUST 155KT
48HF 180000UTC 24.0N 120.6E 150NM 70%
MOVE NW 11KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 190000UTC 25.3N 118.8E 220NM 70%
MOVE NW SLOWLY
PRES 980HPA
MXWD 055KT
GUST 080KT

#90 Postby **Typhoon Hunter** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:40 pm

If Sepat pushes 115kts it will be the first time since typhoon Angela in 1995.

Normandy · #91 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:45 pm

What a beast. Wow.

#92 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:49 pm

The WPAC never disappoints!!!

#93 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:50 pm

I wish we would fly into systems like this.

Normandy · #94 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:52 pm

Typhoons = nature's best storms. ATL hurricanes just can't compare

#95 Postby **HURAKAN** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:56 pm

Normandy wrote:Typhoons = nature's best storms. ATL hurricanes just can't compare

100 super typhoons can't get me the excitement Wilma provided.

Normandy · #96 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:58 pm

Good point Hurakan.

But one must also remember that dozens of typhoons have bottomed out lower than Wilma

#97 Postby **RL3AO** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 8:59 pm

Normandy wrote:Good point Hurakan.

But one must also remember that dozens of typhoons have bottomed out lower than Wilma

Maybe. I've always wondered because the Pacific has an overall lower pressure than the Atlantic.

Normandy · #98 Postby **Normandy** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:01 pm

Who knows, but it does....and that lower pressure produces just monstrous storms. Sepat is one of the best looking storms ive ever seen.

#99 Postby **btangy** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:12 pm

Reminds me a lot of the super typhoons last year in the W Pacific:

Cimaron

Durian

Saomai

Chebi

Definitely where the giants come out to play.

HurricaneBill · #100 Postby **HurricaneBill** » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:44 pm

Typhoon Hunter wrote:If Sepat pushes 115kts it will be the first time since typhoon Angela in 1995.

If Sepat pushes 120KT, it will be the first time since Typhoon Yuri in 1991.

By JTWC standards, if Sepat goes above 140KT, it will be the first typhoon since Chaba in 2004. JTWC has not given a typhoon higher than 140KT since Chaba. Not even Cimaron. JTWC kept Cimaron at 140KT in the best track.

BTW, the highest intensity the JMA ever gave was with Typhoon Tip in 1979. JMA had Tip at 10-min sustained winds of 140KT!

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