CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3481 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:09 pm

I do feel somewhat safer because many local mets say the
ridge is likely to hold strong and protect florida but watch it just in case.
0 likes   

User avatar
TreasureIslandFLGal
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1581
Age: 57
Joined: Sun Aug 15, 2004 6:16 pm
Location: Clearwater, Florida ~3 miles from the coast now. We finally moved safely off the barrier island!

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3482 Postby TreasureIslandFLGal » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:10 pm

Does anyone else think we will see at 2am : upgraded to hurricane Dean?
0 likes   

6SpeedTA95
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1206
Joined: Wed Oct 19, 2005 3:25 pm
Location: Oklahoma
Contact:

Re: TS Dean: For any Island in the Carib that could be affected

#3483 Postby 6SpeedTA95 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:10 pm

Man guys I've been going over the sat/IR/WV imagery the last 15 minutes and I think we've got a borderline hurricane here. The outflow looks pretty good and the storm appears to be getting more organized.
0 likes   

User avatar
wiggles
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 32
Age: 63
Joined: Sat Aug 19, 2006 7:17 pm
Location: Slidell, LA

#3484 Postby wiggles » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:10 pm

Katrina should have taught everyone that you can NEVER let your guard down
0 likes   

User avatar
Acral
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:31 pm
Location: Gulf Shores, AL
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3485 Postby Acral » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:11 pm

TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Does anyone else think we will see at 2am : upgraded to hurricane Dean?


I would say probably tommorrow.
0 likes   

User avatar
Weatherfreak14
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Sep 24, 2005 3:40 pm
Location: Beaufort, SC
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3486 Postby Weatherfreak14 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:12 pm

East coast and flordia has to take a deep breath tommrow as they fly into this storm i think we will see a difference in the track but im starting to believe that the ridge may hold in.
0 likes   

User avatar
Evil Jeremy
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 5463
Age: 32
Joined: Mon Apr 10, 2006 2:10 pm
Location: Los Angeles, CA

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3487 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:12 pm

Tampa Bay Hurricane wrote:I do feel somewhat safer because many local mets say the
ridge is likely to hold strong and protect florida but watch it just in case.


yea, but how often are the local mets right with this kind of system?
0 likes   

User avatar
canegrl04
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2486
Joined: Thu Aug 26, 2004 5:37 pm
Location: Texas

Re:

#3488 Postby canegrl04 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:13 pm

HURAKAN wrote:Image

Looking really good. Good wrapping.


Looks like Dean has an an eye wall .
0 likes   

User avatar
'CaneFreak
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1487
Joined: Mon Jun 05, 2006 10:50 am
Location: New Bern, NC

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3489 Postby 'CaneFreak » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:14 pm

Acral wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Does anyone else think we will see at 2am : upgraded to hurricane Dean?


I would say probably tommorrow.


2 am is tomorrow... :wink:
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3490 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:14 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.



I don't normally make bold statements, but with so many
meteorologists saying the same thing I would go bold here.

I'll still watch it but the models show the ridge holding...protecting FL
but very bad news for mexico..my prayers are with them.

Many local meteorologists added the same sentiment, as they
feel Dean will stay south of Florida. They said we should watch it just
in case it does something unexpected, but for right now none of the models
bring it anywhere into FL.


Besides, the ridge is strong. Unless I see a trough I don't
see too much model change.
Last edited by Tampa Bay Hurricane on Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:17 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
JtSmarts
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1437
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 10, 2003 1:29 pm
Location: Columbia, South Carolina

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Global Models

#3491 Postby JtSmarts » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:15 pm

Brent wrote:
marcane_1973 wrote:Lets say Dean is a cat 3 or 4 and crosses over the entire Yucatan Peninsula shouldnt that knock him down a bit before he gets to Mexico or Texas?


Yeah, see Emily, she hit as a 4 and weakened to a 1, but made final landfall as a 3.


There was Wilma which hit as a 4 but recovered nicely to hit FL as a 3, but there was also Isidore which hit as a strong 3 stayed for awhile and never recovered, even over the warm waters of the gulf.
0 likes   

User avatar
HeatherAKC
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 286
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 2:28 pm
Location: Miami Lakes, Florida

#3492 Postby HeatherAKC » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:15 pm

Fellow South Floridians...did any of you catch the WSVN guy's "scenerio 2" (Phil Ferro, or something like that??) at 10pm?

Although he's fairly confident in "scenerio 1" (The west runner) he mentioned that Dean could get pulled north by a low and THEN head west. Well, his graphic was pretty much a bulls-eye to south florida. Nothing like a little hype!

Come to think of it, I don't think he's changed his tune since last night and I don't think he's been in South Florida too long either.

Edit: Perhaps "bulls-eye" was the wrong word. The graphic simply placed the storm to our east and he motioned with his hand to the west towards south florida.
Last edited by HeatherAKC on Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:25 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Acral
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 183
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2005 5:31 pm
Location: Gulf Shores, AL
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3493 Postby Acral » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:18 pm

'CaneFreak wrote:
Acral wrote:
TreasureIslandFLGal wrote:Does anyone else think we will see at 2am : upgraded to hurricane Dean?


I would say probably tommorrow.


2 am is tomorrow... :wink:


Good, then I am covered either way. LOL :)
0 likes   

User avatar
hial2
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 809
Joined: Fri Oct 10, 2003 9:20 pm
Location: Indian trail N.C.

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3494 Postby hial2 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:19 pm

HeatherAKC wrote:Fellow South Floridians...did any of you catch the WSVN guy's "scenerio 2" (Phil Ferro, or something like that??) at 10pm?

Although he's fairly confident in "scenerio 1" (The west runner) he mentioned that Dean could get pulled north by a low and THEN head west. Well, his graphic was pretty much a bulls-eye to south florida. Nothing like a little hype!

Come to think of it, I don't think he's changed his tune since last night and I don't think he's been in South Florida too long either.


Phil (Felipe) Ferro was a weathercaster for Channel 51 for a long time...
0 likes   

User avatar
fci
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 3324
Joined: Tue Sep 14, 2004 10:29 am
Location: Lake Worth, FL

#3495 Postby fci » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:19 pm

Like I said earlier; I will breathe my sigh of relief when Dean is past 80-81.

I like our chances of missing him as an oddity would have to occur for all the models and Mets to be wrong but it has happened before.

So, I would sum up the feeling as "cautiously optomistic".
0 likes   

Praxus
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 473
Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:19 pm

#3496 Postby Praxus » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:19 pm

n/m
Last edited by Praxus on Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:27 pm, edited 2 times in total.
0 likes   

User avatar
Tampa Bay Hurricane
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5597
Age: 37
Joined: Fri Jul 22, 2005 7:54 pm
Location: St. Petersburg, FL

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3497 Postby Tampa Bay Hurricane » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:20 pm

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Also in my earlier post I was only referring to FL being protected I
can't predict anything about other states along the gulf coast.

Now I could be entirely wrong, but we'll see what happens.
0 likes   

User avatar
cedwards
Tropical Wave
Tropical Wave
Posts: 6
Age: 60
Joined: Tue Aug 14, 2007 8:56 pm
Location: Shawnee, OK
Contact:

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3498 Postby cedwards » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:20 pm

The models are in surprisingly good agreement on Dean's path. This does not mean that it won't change, but it does appear that it will continue in the general direction of Cozumel, Mexico or south of there.
Image
0 likes   

User avatar
sunnyday
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1592
Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 8:16 pm

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3499 Postby sunnyday » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:21 pm

Will someone please explain to me why the models moved the forecasted path of Dean so far South since yesterday? What changed? Why didn't the models see it before today? My questions is if everyone is so sure the storm is going to move west toward the Yucatan, can't that idea change by tomorrow, also?
0 likes   

User avatar
wzrgirl1
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1331
Joined: Sat Sep 04, 2004 6:44 am
Location: Pembroke Pines, Florida

Re: Tropical Storm DEAN: Discussions,Analysis and Imagery

#3500 Postby wzrgirl1 » Wed Aug 15, 2007 9:21 pm

hial2 wrote:
HeatherAKC wrote:Fellow South Floridians...did any of you catch the WSVN guy's "scenerio 2" (Phil Ferro, or something like that??) at 10pm?

Although he's fairly confident in "scenerio 1" (The west runner) he mentioned that Dean could get pulled north by a low and THEN head west. Well, his graphic was pretty much a bulls-eye to south florida. Nothing like a little hype!

Come to think of it, I don't think he's changed his tune since last night and I don't think he's been in South Florida too long either.


Phil (Felipe) Ferro was a weathercaster for Channel 51 for a long time...



there was no bulls eye to south florida with that scenario....he merely stated that the trough could pull dean on a more wnw scenario but it still wouldn't be enough to effect south florida directly
0 likes   


Return to “2007”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 5 guests