CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[EyELeSs1]

waiting to see what recon will find tomorrow.

[chaupal]

this upper air pattern just looks soooo complicated to me...i mean where is the high because it is ill defined. At 54 hr it looks like it is centers NE of the Bahamas...but there is seemingly Low pressure digging into Arkansas/LA? FLOW in the Gulf is Counter Clockwise.


then there is the x over miami...what the heck
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_054l.gif

The 'x' is a upper level low. Very low shear inthe NW Carib.

I think this ULL is the wild card. It will be interesting to see if this will create enough weakness in the ridge to pull Dean NW.

[wxfollower]

Yeah I know. I don't think I have ever seen a cane do this what Dean is doing, especially the models.

Also, is the reason Dean is making a bee line west because of the ridge. Is this the same ridge that is keeping all the rain down in florida. Its not been a normal rainy season this year. Very low percentages of rain....

[Scorpion]

Looking at the clouds to the top of the storm it looks to be undergoing fairly rapid intensification at this time

[wxfollower]

where do you guys look at all this stuff?

[Sanibel]

I think this ULL is the wild card. It will be interesting to see if this will create enough weakness in the ridge to pull Dean NW.

While I agree, that feature is currently poofing on WV loop. The ridge appears to be real and will bridge over from the Atlantic one.

[wxfollower]

http://www.wunderground.com/data/images/tropical.gif

that is a lot of heat in front of it...

[vaffie]

At 00Z 24 hours, a tad faster than the corresponding 30 hour 18Z model. At or slightly south of the same position.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_024m.gif
Compare to:
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_030m.gif

[ExBailbonds]

72 hour loop 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Nice avatar, ExBailbonds!

I love my canes

[miamicanes177]

Looking at the clouds to the top of the storm it looks to be undergoing fairly rapid intensification at this time

It is now beginning to move into the higher heat potential and sst's as it crosses 50 west. I agree it should intensify more quickly now.

[Extremeweatherguy]

96 hrs (4 days) still puts this in the western Caribbean...

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096l.gif

500mb... http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_096l.gif

Might be a bit of a weakness in the GOM though..could be interesting. (however, it showed a similar situation on the 18z and it made little difference)

[Steve]

Upper Loop GFS 1000/500mb out to 96 shows a serious southerly track. This may be the furthest south yet. Looks like 4 days to Central America.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

Dean the Pacific Storm?

Steve

[vaffie]

At 36 hours indistinguishable from 18Z 42 hours.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_036m.gif
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_042m.gif

[ExBailbonds]

96 Hour loop 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... loop.shtml

[Extremeweatherguy]

[vaffie]

At 96 hours ahead of 18Z. To the southwest of Jamaica, moving WNW.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_096m.gif

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_102m.gif

[jhamps10]

humm is that nogaps the most up to date? if so, then we have a whole new ballgame here.

[Sanibel]

The intensity potential for a straight track across the hotest SST's around is scary. Gilbert II was right after all.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Nogaps is the 18z run..so yes, ATM it is the most up to date.

[vaffie]

108 hours.
Basically showing a tropical storm (that would be influenced by the lower level wind flow and not the upper level wind flow that a Category 4 hurricane would be directed by).

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_108m.gif