CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[KFDM Meteorologist]

168

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_168l.gif

[jhamps10]

With the latest model runs now, I'm sort of rethinking a SE TX landfall. I have no reason to disagree with the models at this time.

Go figure that as soon as I warn everybody I know to be buying batteries and water, the models send it WAY south.

models could still send it back north again, which some of the models, I.E. 18z NOGAPS has done, in fact missing ALL landmass except for the lesser antellies between now and GOM.

[Vortex]

Major shift in 00z 8/15 GFS model to the north

H-150 heading nnw across centreal Cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

[KFDM Meteorologist]

168 500

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[vaffie]

Makes landfall at about Tampico, Mexico at 1 am, Thursday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

[jhamps10]

Major shift in 00z 8/15 GFS model to the north

H-150 heading nnw across centreal Cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

WHAT!!!!!!!!! I don't see this.

[HouTXmetro]

West Gulf under the gun again...

[KFDM Meteorologist]

Makes landfall at about Tampico, Mexico at 1 am, Thursday.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_174m.gif

Yup!

[ConvergenceZone]

the models do seem to be trending further and further south over the last couple of days...Hehe, wouldn't it be funny if Dean somehow ended up in the Pacific??..I remember that happening to a couple of storms. I know, that's doubtful....Mexico is going to have their hands full next week. Hopefully some of the feeder bands will be close enough to Texas to bring some good rains....

[weatherguru18]

Going to buy no-dose and whataburger...it's going to be a long night/nights. This thing for some reason has really grabbed my attention. I just don't have a very good feeling about this. The last time I had this feeling is when Rita came in.

[HouTXmetro]

West Gulf under the gun again...

[Stormcenter]

Why don't I feel warm and fuzzy about model runs that are still over a week away?
I would caution everyone not to get too excited about this just yet. I think...no I know
I will feel a lot better when it is showing that same landfall locations on Sunday night. Why
do I have a feeling that won't be the case? Let's cross our fingers this pans out. Anyway I
do wish the best for those in Dean's path if he turns out to be the monster the NHC thinks
he will.

[Shawee]

Hmmm, starting to rethink a SE TX landfall. I have no reason to disagree with the models.

Go figure, I have alerted everybody I know to think about buying batteries and water in the coming days in preperation for a possible serious hurricane.

water and batteries will last through the season... it ain't over yet!

[Extremeweatherguy]

Going to buy no-dose and whataburger...it's going to be a long night/nights. This thing for some reason has really grabbed my attention. I just don't have a very good feeling about this. The last time I had this feeling is when Rita came in.

The models do show a weakness in the northern GOM next week. If the storm is located just a tiny bit further north than what the current GFS shows, then it will likely turn north toward the northwestern or central GOM. We will just have to watch, wait and see what happens..

...We still have a week or so before this would get close enough to impact our area.

[jhamps10]

Why don't I feel warm and fuzzy about model runs that iare still over a week away?
I would caution everyone not to get too excited about this just yet. I think...no I know
I will feel a lot better when it is showing that same landfall locations on Sunday night. Why
do I have a feeling that won't be the case? Let's cross our fingers this pans out. Anyway I
do wish the best for those in Dean's path if he turns out to be the monster the NHC thinks
he will.

Bingo, models will change tracks wickedly still here, if it still has this excate same track some Friday night, then I will have much more confidence in it, but right now, everyone in the GOM, Caribbean, and even Florida need to watch this closely. A RI cycle could change things big time, so who knows what's gonna happen.

[vaffie]

If the 00Z GFS model had a stronger, deeper Dean in the Gulf of Mexico, the track would clearly be much further north, as it has a rounded 594 high centered over South Carolina at 168 hours and a weakness in the Central Plains that would force the storm north into TX/LA. In time, if the GFS starts showing a stronger system over the next few model runs, I expect we will see more and more northerly tracks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

[Sanibel]

Is anybody else having trouble with the NHC satellite loops? They won't run or load for me.


This is really something. I can't believe it, but Dean looks like it has gone back below 13N to 12.6N It must have really hit the ridge OR done a wicked wobble. Reminds me of Ivan's little dip south to Grenada.

[jhamps10]

If the 00Z GFS model had a stronger, deeper Dean in the Gulf of Mexico, the track would clearly be much further north, as it has a rounded 594 high centered over South Carolina at 168 hours and a weakness in the Central Plains that would force the storm north into TX/LA. In time, if the GFS starts showing a stronger system over the next few model runs, I expect we will see more and more northerly tracks.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... 0_168l.gif

yeah I think the GFS is too weak with this storm on the forecast. I'm not saying that a mexico landfall should be treated as dumb, but IMO a TX landfall is more plausiable, espically with a stronger storm.

[MiamiensisWx]

Well, I think some things are finally becoming clearer with respect to the general synoptic pattern that will influence Dean over the next three days. Personally, it looks like the trough is lifting northward, while a weak low remains in place over the western Atlantic. This trend would leave only a relatively benign 500 mbar weakness, and in spite of the uncertainties, I think the "dome" of high pressure is clearly forcing Dean on a generally westward path. Over the past hour (personal observations), more reliable shortwave imagery indicates a nearly due west component of Dean's center. Additionally, the upper anticyclone appears to have been becoming better defined, while the forward motion remains brisk:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-ir2.html

Note the fact that the Southeast ridge is progged to "build" over the GOM after the trough moves out of the western Atlantic basin. I think the bottom line (through the next 72 hours) indicates the evidence is mounting for a path into the Caribbean (at least reaching the longitude of 65W). Undoubtedly, things can change rapidly, and I wouldn't discount the possibility of a recurvature. I must make some observations, and I think the GFS (and other model guidance) could be right on the money with respect to the short-term path. Regardless of a possible United States impact, it is time for the islands to be ready for the arrival of a strengthening TS (likely Hurricane) Dean.

[jhamps10]

hey guys, We should have a cane at 5AM, if not at 2. IR is showing clear signs of eye formation.