CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Thunder44]

Its because it is a tiny pin hole eye. In this sucker by this afternoon "could" be found something a lot stronger then we think.

On visible imagery, the eye hasn't completely cleared out yet. It's not a pinhole eye, but it could be a little stronger than 65kts.

[Hyperstorm]

Based on the small eye becoming visible, this system appears to be approaching category 2 status as we speak. If the current developing eye remains visible and/or becomes clearer over the next 6 hours, expect the Air Force Recon to find at the very least, a strengthening category 2 hurricane.

[Matt-hurricanewatcher]

Watch it clear my friend.

[weatherwindow]

using the stormcarib.com "how close can it get".....based on the 500am 8/16 nhc/tpc forecast track...the center of dean should pass over martinique at approx 1030am friday with forecast 80kts winds....based on current tpc wind radii, tropical storm condiiotions should begin approx 700am with hurricane conditions appearing approx 930am........i have not included a disclaimer since this data is based strictly on nhc/tpc forecast date, however all reader should continue to consult official national meterological entity forecast and the ongoing forecasts from the nhc/tpc.....rich....

[cycloneye]

I added to the title page 106 to let know the members that from that page the discussions are about Hurricane Dean.Thread continues open until the duration of Dean.

[dizzyfish]

Quick question.

Recon is scheduled for two flights into Dean today. The first one is at 1:00pm EST correct?

[cpdaman]

with bouy http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41040 about 1 degree in latitude north of the "eye" of Dean , the next hour's data will reflect how wide of a spread dean's winds go

last hour (before nw wabble) had 35mph with gusts to 45mph

now with dean being a compact storm (IMO) does that effects it's ability's to influence /strengthen a ridge ahead of it/ is that logic for larger and stronger storms

man this guy is moving (at least which ever island loses the dean "lottery" will not have to deal w/ hurricane conditions for more than 3/4 hours IMO

p.s wobble watch will now commence

[cycloneye]

Quick question.

Recon is scheduled for two flights into Dean today. The first one is at 1:00pm EST correct?

Yes.Plane departs around 10:30 AM EDT from ST Croix.

[OURAGAN]

Dean is moving west to west north/west.

[Cookiely]

Will Dean's rapid motion of 24mph hinder rapid development?

[msbee]

Now, I have a few not so nice words to say about the gov'ts of Barbados and ESPECIALLY Dominica this evening. If you are in Dominica... disregard the official information and act as if you are under a Hurricane Watch, which means hurricane conditions are POSSIBLE within 36 hours. This is most certainly the case here, I have no clue what they are thinking. Barbados also should be in a watch as the storm is likely only going to pass 50-70 miles north. Residents there should be aware that ther eis an outside chance of hurricane conditions within the next 36 hours.

Expect warnings by the gov'ts sometime between 5-11 a.m. tomorrow. I intend to ramp up coverage on nwhhc.com for those of you in the islands tomorrow morning, probably at 8 A.M. 9I would start at 5... but I'll likely just get up for a quick update and go back to sleep for nother hour ebfore heading into the office)

I fail to understand the delay. The islands..all of the islands..know what it is like to get hit by a hurricane.. They should have been on top of this last night.
I see this morning from NHC that
...HURRICANE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
ISLANDS OF DOMINICA AND ST. LUCIA BY THEIR RESPECTIVE GOVERNMENTS.
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. (Statia)

I do not see a hurricane watch listed for St. Maarten.
St. Marten,Saba, and Statia watches are all issued by our Met Office based in Curacao, over 500 miles away.
I am assuming that they have put only Saba and Statia on watch because they are further south than us. I can see Statia from my porch though so it's not that far South.
OK, I just see now on the official Netherlands Antilles Met web site that a tropical storm watch has been issued fro St. Maarten.
http://www.meteo.an/

I am worried for our friends in Dominica, St. Lucia, and Martinique. Those islands have many mountains and many rural areas. They are particularly prone to flash flooding.
Those of you in Barbados too.. Stay safe!
I wish safe passage of Dean for all of us.

And thanks Derek and Storm2k for keeping us all up to date.

[cycloneye]

000
FXCA62 TJSJ 161022
AFDSJU

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
622 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

.SYNOPSIS...AT MID TO UPPER LEVELS...TROUGH-RIDGE-TROUGH PATTERN
IS ACROSS THE WEST AND CENTRAL ATLC...WITH WEAK AND NARROW REMNANT
OF TUTT AXIS AT MID LEVELS NOW OVER WRN MONA PASSAGE...YIELDING
SSW FLOW ALOFT. A WEAK LLVL PERTURBATION IN THE ELYS...LIKELY AN
OLD TUTT REFLECTION...IS CURRENTLY PASSING SOUTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA...WITH A WIND SURGE ENTERING THE E CARIB ENHANCING
CONVERGENCE ON BACK SIDE OF WAVE...EXTENDING N THROUGH THE LOCAL
AREA AND INTO THE OFFSHORE ATLC. DRY SLOT OF SUBSIDENCE WELL OUT
AHEAD OF DEAN IS CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
WILL REACH THE LOCAL AREA TODAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
WNW ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO DRIER MORE
STABLE LOW TO MID LEVEL AIR ARRIVING FROM THE EAST BY MIDDAY AND
WILL LIMIT AREAL COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA.
DEAN...RECENTLY CLASSIFIED AND UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE...IS MOVING
QUICKLY...NEAR 21 KNOTS...JUST NORTH OF WEST...AND IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE AT THIS FAST MOTION...WHILE STEADILY INTENSIFYING...AND
PASS A SOMEWHAT COMFORTABLE DISTANCE SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS
FRIDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. BASED ON THE LATEST WIND FIELD
ANALYSIS...AND NHC FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS WILL
AFFECT OUR SOUTHERNMOST CARIBBEAN COASTAL WATERS...BUT REMAIN
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL ISLANDS. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY AS TO THE
AMOUNT OF WEATHER THAT THE LOCAL ISLANDS WILL SEE...AS DEAN IS
FORECAST TO BE APPROACHING CATEGORY THREE INTENSITY AS IT PASSES
SOUTH OF PUERTO RICO...AND THIS COULD DRAW MUCH OF THE DEEP
MOISTURE INTO THE CENTRAL CIRCULATION OF DEAN...WITH JUST
OCCASIONAL SHALLOW PASSING SQUALLS AND RAINBANDS ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. THUS WINDY SQUALLY CONDITIONS ARE CERTAINLY EXPECTED ACROSS
THE LOCAL ISLANDS FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY...BUT HEAVY
RAIN POTENTIAL IS STILL UNCERTAIN...AND 24 HOUR RAINFALL AMOUNTS
MAY BE LIMITED TO ONLY ONE TO TWO INCHES...WITH A FEW ISOLATED
HIGHER AMOUNTS. IMPROVING WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY EVENING.
THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH AMPLE MOISTURE FOR ACTIVE AND WET WEATHER.

&&

.MARINE...WINDS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGIONAL WATERS TODAY...
AND THEN BEGIN TO BACK (NELY) AND GRADUALLY INCREASE TONIGHT
THROUGH FRIDAY AS DEAN ENTERS THE CARIBBEAN. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES WILL BE REQUIRED FOR ALL LOCAL OFFSHORE WATERS
TONIGHT. WINDS AND SEAS WILL THEN INCREASE MORE RAPIDLY FRIDAY
MIDDAY THROUGH AFTERNOON AS DEAN PASSES SOUTH OF THE OPEN WATERS
OF THE NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN...WITH STEEP BUILDING WIND WAVES AND
HURRICANE SWELLS MOVING INTO THE AREA WATERS BY LATE AFTERNOON.
HIGH SURF ADVISORIES AND COASTAL FLOOD WATCHES WILL BE NECESSARY
FOR THE CARIBBEAN COASTS FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. RAINBANDS AND
SQUALLS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING 40-50
KNOT WIND GUSTS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SIMILAR GUSTS
APPROACHING HURRICANE FORCE ACROSS THE OFFSHORE CARIBBEAN WATERS
LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY NOON. SMALL CRAFT ACROSS
THE LOCAL CARIBBEAN WILL WANT TO REMAIN IN PORT BEYOND FRIDAY
MORNING.


Read how will be the effects as Dean tracks south of Puerto Rico,Culebra,Vieques,U.S.VI,BVI and the northern Leewards.

[CaneCharmer]

The novice here was wondring if, at this point, the track could be shifted to the north if the trough was underestimated. It may be just a wobble, but it looks to me like Dean has a little northward pull to it. Considering how terribly wrong the models have been in the recent past, I want to know if there is that slight possibility of a more northward track scenario. Any response is welcome. Thankx!

[cycloneye]

How come Martinique which is located between Dominica (Hurricane Warning) and St Lucia (Hurricane Warning) does not have a Hurricane warning?

[msbee]

they seem to have only a watch!
From NHC:
A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS

Looks like you and I will be getting some squally weather, Luis, and hopefully not much more
Barbara

[Emmett_Brown]

The novice here was wondring if, at this point, the track could be shifted to the north if the trough was underestimated. It may be just a wobble, but it looks to me like Dean has a little northward pull to it. Considering how terribly wrong the models have been in the recent past, I want to know if there is that slight possibility of a more northward track scenario. Any response is welcome. Thankx!

Yup... Dean appears to be doing a stair stepping motion... Due west, and slightly north of west. Seems to be W/NW on the last couple of frames. Overall, appears to be on the NHC track, which allows for a slight gain in lattitude. One nice thing about seeing an eye is that it makes wobble watch possible, which is a great real time activity while waiting for recon results.

[srainhoutx]

Will Dean's rapid motion of 24mph hinder rapid development?

in a word, yes

[msbee]

BTW, here are some Martinique and Guadeloupe official weather web sites.
You gotta read French though

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... /princ.htm

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antill ... SAIC2.html (radar)

[WmE]

Will Dean's rapid motion of 24mph hinder rapid development?

in a word, yes

also a word, why?

[storms NC]

The novice here was wondring if, at this point, the track could be shifted to the north if the trough was underestimated. It may be just a wobble, but it looks to me like Dean has a little northward pull to it. Considering how terribly wrong the models have been in the recent past, I want to know if there is that slight possibility of a more northward track scenario. Any response is welcome. Thankx!

I don't think so. It will go North a little like a jogs. But as fast as it is going It is going stright into the Yucatan. I said this a few days ago that if it didn't so down stright into honduras But it did slow for just a few to get a little north. so now it would be the Yucatan. JIMO only