CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Windtalker2]

A strong cold front is to pass through the NE and into the Carolina's by Saturday night. Wouldn't a stronger Storm tend to be pulled more poleward toward the strong front? http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... D&site=LWX http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.ph ... T&site=BOX

[HURAKAN]

GOOD AS EVER!!!

[cycloneye]

Bouy 41040

Winds are around 40kts,Waves are around 20 feet.And this bouy located north of the eye is not close to it(14.4n-53.3w).

[senorpepr]

So much for the, "thats not an eye" crowd

The warm spot earlier was just that... a warm spot, not a pinhole eye. It was in a different location than the center, where the eye is currently located.

[Dave C]

Dean's fast motion would weaken it if the winds at different alltitudes were different speeds. Remember Charley was moving 20-25 mph but the flow at all levels was similar.

[Aquawind]

The novice here was wondring if, at this point, the track could be shifted to the north if the trough was underestimated. It may be just a wobble, but it looks to me like Dean has a little northward pull to it. Considering how terribly wrong the models have been in the recent past, I want to know if there is that slight possibility of a more northward track scenario. Any response is welcome. Thankx!

These wobbles, jogs and stair stepping are are fairly normal for hurricanes and ridges. At this point it seems like the models and professionals alike are fairly confident with a caribbean track w-wnw. The models have gotten a better handle on this recently so confidence is higher and should grow with recon data. Could the ridge erode earlier than expected..absolutely..but unlikely at this point. Beyound 3 days anything could happen but I do think the NHC has a handle on Dean as they usually do.

[DESTRUCTION5]

06z GFDL is Ominious

[Swimdude]

So much for the, "thats not an eye" crowd

The warm spot earlier was just that... a warm spot, not a pinhole eye. It was in a different location than the center, where the eye is currently located.

Without a doubt, you know much more about this than I do... But if that isn't an eye, it's a pretty darn consistent warm spot that continues to appear in the center of the storm. I've just never seen anything like this before that wasn't the eye.

[vaffie]

I don't remember who it was but someone was commenting a couple days ago about the putative west Pacific-Atlantic teleconnection--in which weather conditions such as strong high pressures, steering currents are transmitted approximately to the Atlantic Ocean after about 7 days. This was the reasoning given for why TD4/Dean would not recurve to the north as the models were beginning to say, which seems to have held true--given the strong Atlantic ridge developing. Well, it's worth noting, then, that Sepat in the West Pacific has turned into Super-Typhoon Sepat, and after heading west southwest for a while due to a powerful ridge has turned northwest now towards Taiwan due to a weakening of the ridge at its western periphery. It's something to keep in mind since a 7 day teleconnection would imply that about 5.5 days from now--when Dean is near the Yucatan, the ridge in the western Gulf is projected to develop a weakness. Indeed if one examines the latest GFS (6Z) and also the latest CMC--you will see that as it enters the Bay of Campeche it starts turning to the north. How much of a turn it makes and when the turn begins, if there ever is a turn, will depend upon how strong the storm is, how far north it is, how strong the weakness is and how far south it is. For instance, as discussed by the Dallas Fort Worth NWS Office, the GFS has an upper level low break off in north Texas in 5 days, while the Canadian and Euro have it in south Texas--could result in big differences. Anyway, time will tell. Comments welcome.

[drezee]

371
WHXX04 KWBC 161126
CHGQLM
ATTENTION...NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER

NCEP COUPLED GFDL HURRICANE MODEL FORECAST MADE FOR

TROPICAL STORM DEAN 04L

INITIAL TIME 6Z AUG 16

DISCLAIMER ... THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE. IT
REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY HURRICANE SPECIALISTS AND SHOULD
NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT. PLEASE SEE THE TPC/NHC
OFFICIAL FORECAST.


FORECAST STORM POSITION

HOUR LATITUDE LONGITUDE HEADING/SPEED(KT)

0 13.2 51.2 280./21.0
6 13.6 53.5 281./22.6
12 14.2 56.0 282./24.4
18 14.2 58.1 272./21.1
24 14.7 60.2 282./19.9
30 15.1 62.5 281./23.5
36 15.4 64.7 276./20.8
42 15.5 66.6 275./18.9
48 15.8 68.4 278./17.5
54 16.2 70.5 282./19.9
60 16.5 72.3 280./17.6
66 17.0 74.0 284./17.4
72 17.5 75.8 287./18.3
78 18.1 77.5 289./17.2
84 18.8 79.3 289./18.0
90 19.4 80.7 296./14.8
96 20.2 82.0 302./14.6
102 21.4 83.4 310./17.3
108 22.6 84.7 313./17.1
114 24.1 85.9 320./17.9
120 25.5 87.4 315./20.2
126 26.7 88.8 309./17.3


Louisiana????????????????

[HURAKAN]

And it doesn't slow down a lot!!!

[senorpepr]

So much for the, "thats not an eye" crowd

The warm spot earlier was just that... a warm spot, not a pinhole eye. It was in a different location than the center, where the eye is currently located.

Without a doubt, you know much more about this than I do... But if that isn't an eye, it's a pretty darn consistent warm spot that continues to appear in the center of the storm. I've just never seen anything like this before that wasn't the eye.

Let me rephrase. The "pinhole eye" people were talking about a couple of hours ago was nothing but a warm spot. It wasn't even in the center of the storm. What we have now, IS an eye... although my money is on that is isn't a pinhole size either. Give it some time to actually clear out and you'll see that there is some distance to it.

[DESTRUCTION5]

slows some though..this is new

[drezee]

Wow the GFDL has a strong Cat 4 130kts+ heading into LA fast!!!!

[Emmett_Brown]

06z GFDL is Ominious

Ominous... sounds interesting. Link?

[CronkPSU]

Wow the GFDL has a strong Cat 4 130kts+ heading into LA fast!!!!

just like i didn't let my guard down before this GFDL run, I am not going to get too worried about this run either...where is the Need More Recon photo!!!!!

[DESTRUCTION5]

could this be the start of a new trend? if this were GFS id say nah but its the highly reguarded GFDL

[Toadstool]

Well, the good news is the super-duper new HWRF model has the storm basically dissapating before it hits the Yucatan. (I think they have more work to do on that model...)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007081600-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

[Blown Away]

Major shift in 00z 8/15 GFS model to the north

H-150 heading nnw across centreal Cuba


http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_150l.gif

This post must be a mistake.

[MWatkins]

The GFDL has been to the right of the package for 2 of the last 3 runs...even though the pressure pattern in the GFS has been pretty consistent.

Looks like the upper low near the Bahamas is going to cut off and retrograde back west across Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. This feature could ultimately affect the future of Dean...if it is only a little stronger than forecast...it could shunt ridging across the Gulf and open the door for Dean to turn poleward...much like the 6Z GFDL is suggesting.

Today/tonight is going to be interesting. Recon, new model runs in a few hours then the synoptic drops tonight. Wouldn't be surprised at all if the new recon data changes some forecast ideas ahead of the GIV mission tonight.

Hope everyone in the islands is ready.

MW