CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[cycloneye]

213
WTNT34 KNHC 161156
TCPAT4
BULLETIN
HURRICANE DEAN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 12A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
800 AM AST THU AUG 16 2007

...STRENGTHENING DEAN SPEEDS TOWARD THE LESSER ANTILLES...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF DOMINICA
AND ST. LUCIA. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO
COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE ISLANDS OF MARTINIQUE...
GUADELOUPE AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS. A
HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN
THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS. HURRICANE OR TROPICAL
STORM WARNINGS WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF THESE ISLANDS
LATER THIS MORNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF DEAN.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DEAN WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 13.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.3 WEST OR ABOUT 415 MILES...
665 KM...EAST OF BARBADOS AND ABOUT 510 MILES...820 KM...EAST OF
MARTINIQUE.

DEAN IS MOVING QUICKLY TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 24 MPH...39 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THIS
MOTION SHOULD BRING THE CENTER OF DEAN NEAR THE LESSER ANTILLES ON
FRIDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 80 MPH...130 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. DEAN IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-
SIMPSON SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WILL
INVESTIGATE DEAN THIS AFTERNOON.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 25 MILES...35 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 985 MB...29.09 INCHES.

STORM SURGE FLOODING OF 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING WAVES...IS POSSIBLE
NEAR THE CENTER OF DEAN.

STORM TOTAL RAINFALLS OF 2 TO 5 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM
AMOUNTS OF 7 INCHES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS...ARE POSSIBLE IN
ASSOCIATION WITH DEAN. THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING
FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.

REPEATING THE 800 AM AST POSITION...13.5 N...53.3 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 24 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
1100 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA

[vaffie]

Wow, the GFDL track is way out there. It goes over the tip of Cuba on a slightly curved northwest track towards New Orleans/Mobile/Pensacola

[cycloneye]

AT 800 AM AST...1200Z...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED BY
THE METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE OF ANTIGUA FOR THE ISLANDS OF
MONTSERRAT...ANTIGUA...ST. KITTS...NEVIS...AND BARBUDA. A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST. VINCENT AND ST. MAARTEN. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
HURRICANE OR TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS COULD BE ISSUED FOR SOME OF
THESE ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING.

More watches issued for more islands.

[Extremeweatherguy]

Wow, I don't like the new GFDL. It races the storm NW into the GOM and then turns it back more WNW toward TX at the end. NOT GOOD were this to play out!

[Derek Ortt]

now am reocmmending a warning on nwhhc for st lucia, martinique, and dominica, as well as the earlier recommendation for barbados

Those in Barbados, disregard your gov't info and treat this as a Hurricane Watch/TS Warning as TS winds and heavy rain are a distinct possibility

[HURAKAN]

Latest!!

[CronkPSU]

Well, the good news is the super-duper new HWRF model has the storm basically dissapating before it hits the Yucatan. (I think they have more work to do on that model...)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007081600-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

so poof? I have a little trouble believing that this well organized storm in favorable conditions the rest of the way is just going to die

[caribepr]

Do you see this as a slight northerly trend, then?

[Thunder44]

Latest!!

The eye is no longer visible. The storm only appears to be strengthening slowly.

[Extremeweatherguy]

06z GFDL is Ominious

yeah it is. It turns the storm NW into the GOM and then back WNW toward TX/LA at the end. For obvious reasons, that would be a horrible track for my area!

[Extremeweatherguy]

I can see the eye.

[Toadstool]

Well, the good news is the super-duper new HWRF model has the storm basically dissapating before it hits the Yucatan. (I think they have more work to do on that model...)
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/hwrftc2.cgi?time=2007081600-dean04l&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation

so poof? I have a little trouble believing that this well organized storm in favorable conditions the rest of the way is just going to die

I agree... scary if their "latest and greatest" model is so far off the mark...

[Meso]

The problem with the HWRF is that it doesn't even show it reaching hurricane strength,so it can already be omitted.
Eye no longer visible? eh? Can still see the area where the eye is,just needs to clear of clouds.
Will be interesting to see what the other 06z models show,to see if the GFDL is on it's own mission or if another trend may be starting.

[Emmett_Brown]

Remind me... is it correct that the is based off of the output of the GFS? When does the next GFS run?

[HouTXmetro]

I'm not going to sound the alarm for upper TX just yet but the the threat to the TX coastline in general is growing.

[SkeetoBite]

I normally don't get too deep into the discussion, but I have an observation (gosh an original idea of my own!), that is really more of a question for the pro-mets.

Over the past 4 seasons we've been making maps, I've noticed an interesting trend in the wind field outline of the storms. The more circular the wind field (nearly even on all sides - annular?), the more likely the storm APPEARS to be to go to cat 3 and frankly, well above that intensity. In fact, as I recall, all of the cat 5 storms we've mapped had this eerily similar wind field shape to them in the 72 hour forecast period. I realize that this storm is currently forecast to go to cat 4.

• Of course I'm not suggesting that this will go to cat 5 within 72 hours, but, am I nuts or is this a reasonable overall observation? Especially given the current visible imagery of Dean 2007.
• Any ideas on the criteria used by the NHC for forecasting the wind field?

Thanks for any insight you can provide.

[weatherwindow]

How come Martinique which is located between Dominica (Hurricane Warning) and St Lucia (Hurricane Warning) does not have a Hurricane warning?

especially since it will literally be on top of them tomorrow.....its a government decision..they have been tardy with warnings in the past also

[stormchazer]

The GFDL is trying to scare the pants off the N GOM Coast. The models will move around for days ao relax and watch. It is our Freinds in the islands we need to look to right now.

[Thunder44]

CHGHUR
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1226 UTC THU AUG 16 2007

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

TROPICAL CYCLONE DEAN (AL042007) 20070816 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
070816 1200 070817 0000 070817 1200 070818 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.5N 53.3W 14.8N 58.9W 15.5N 64.4W 15.9N 69.0W
BAMD 13.5N 53.3W 14.4N 57.0W 15.2N 60.5W 15.9N 63.9W
BAMM 13.5N 53.3W 14.5N 57.7W 15.1N 61.9W 15.6N 65.6W

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
070818 1200 070819 1200 070820 1200 070821 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.8N 73.0W 15.3N 79.5W 14.9N 84.2W 16.7N 87.0W
BAMD 16.5N 67.2W 17.2N 73.8W 18.3N 81.3W 20.2N 88.6W
BAMM 16.0N 69.2W 16.7N 76.2W 17.3N 83.4W 18.0N 89.0W

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.5N LONCUR = 53.3W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 21KT
LATM12 = 13.0N LONM12 = 49.2W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 21KT
LATM24 = 12.3N LONM24 = 45.1W
WNDCUR = 75KT RMAXWD = 15NM WNDM12 = 60KT
CENPRS = 982MB OUTPRS = 1011MB OUTRAD = 180NM SDEPTH = D
RD34NE = 90NM RD34SE = 75NM RD34SW = 60NM RD34NW = 75NM

$$
NNNN

12z Models initialized Dean at winds of 75kts and a pressure of 982mb.

[Sabanic]

For now the Islands are, and should be our first area of concern, but down the road anyone on the GOM coast needs to be watching Dean closely.