CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[Rocketman]

The GFDL is trying to scare the pants off the N GOM Coast. The models will move around for days ao relax and watch. It is our Freinds in the islands we need to look to right now.

*retrieves pants*

I need to be more careful

[Steve H.]

The 6z GFDL does hsow a move into the central GOM, but this is only one run and the NHC will use this and other guidance as a data point. We'll see what future runs tend to do.

[HURAKAN]

It's eye clearing time!!!

[ronjon]

Here is the 06z GFDL run with all others. Takes it on a NW heading through the central GOM. Is it a trend? If it wasn't the highly respected GFDL, which got Katrina correct in S FL, I'd discount it.

[Thunder44]

I can see eye the a little more in the last visible image.

[HURAKAN]

Accuweather says that after the Cayman Islands, this has Mexico all over it.

[CrazyC83]

Dean's awakening now! I'd say Cat 2 by this afternoon...

[Blown Away]

I'm getting a feeling the 3+ day track is going to bust.

[SouthFloridawx]

Why is everyone so set on such the westerly course?
Is it because the models have continually showed a westward track?
It's probably best for everyone to keep on guard rather than let complacency rule.

It looks like that upper low is setting up to be pretty strong... Don't know about the long term though.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

[stormchazer]

I'm getting a feeling the 3+ day track is going to bust.

Was there much doubt that would happen?
We need the Recon and Gulfstream data to solidify the models.
Come on Recon! Come on Recon!

[cycloneye]

16/1145 UTC 13.5N 53.2W T4.5/4.5 DEAN


http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/CI-chart.html

Close to cat 2.

[Extremeweatherguy]

lol. I love those accuweather graphics...they seem to always go where the GFS goes, and are sometimes not even in line with what Joe Bastardi or the NHC is saying.

[Extremeweatherguy]

I don't think it will bust. I see very little chance of this system being outside of the NHC cone of error until may be day 5. remember, don't just follow the skinny black line.

[miamicanes177]

06Z GFDL doomsday category 5 headed for Louisiana. I better go grab some popcorn and watch this movie play out!

[Swimdude]

Here is the 06z GFDL run with all others. Takes it on a NW heading through the central GOM. Is it a trend? If it wasn't the highly respected GFDL, which got Katrina correct in S FL, I'd discount it.

Let's at least try to keep in mind that the GFDL is just one model. Let's remember there's about 15 others on that picture alone that don't send Dean into Houston.

[wiggles]

That is not something we want to see. This city can not handle another storm right now. I don't think we could handle a TS.

['CaneFreak]

Why is everyone so set on such the westerly course?
Is it because the models have continually showed a westward track?
It's probably best for everyone to keep on guard rather than let complacency rule.

It looks like that upper low is setting up to be pretty strong... Don't know about the long term though.

http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/trop_ge_wv_ls_0.html

I again agree with you there SFWX....this ULL appears to be strengthening and headed west to westsouthwest...this might allow there to be enough weakness, as has been said all along....to cause a strong Dean to turn more poleward in time...the idea is that the hurricane will be strong enough at this point to be influenced by the deep steering layer of 200-700 mb which will show this weakness...

[Sabanic]

Ouch!!

[Extremeweatherguy]

06Z GFDL doomsday category 5 headed for Louisiana. I better go grab some popcorn and watch this movie play out!

yeah, this run has SE Texas/SW Louisiana written all over it. ( http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfdltc2. ... =Animation ). Luckily though this is many days out and the GFDL is sure to change (for better or worse) over the next few days.

[HURAKAN]

Lesser Antilles Hurricanes: 2004 - 2007








Lesser Antilles Hurricanes: 1996 - 2003












Between 1996 and 2003, 5 hurricanes impacted the Lesser Antilles, that's a hurricane every 1.8 years. Between 2004 and 2007, including Dean, 3 hurricanes impacting the Lesser Antilles, that's a hurricane every 1.3 years.