CAT 5 Hurricane Dean - Archived threads

[weunice]

How long did it take for Wilma to RI when she had a pinhole eye? This looks ominously similar to my untrained eye.

From Wikipedia - In a 30 hour period, the pressure dropped from 982 mbar to the record-low of 882 mbar, while the winds increased to 185 mph (300 km/h).

[miamicanes177]

CNN just said the storm is a little sheared

[BensonTCwatcher]

Any thoughts on the GFS and the "other ULL" around 30/50?

[SkeetoBite]

How long did it take for Wilma to RI when she had a pinhole eye? This looks ominously similar to my untrained eye.

Here is our discussion archive for Wilma. All forecast maps and discussions:

http://www.skeetobiteweather.com/discoh ... d=AL242005

10/19/2005 2:36:00 AM advisory (Discussion #14) Wilma was a Cat 2

10/19/2005 8:41:00 AM advisory (Discussion #16) Wilma was a Cat 5

[windstorm99]

You an see here the very warm SST'S dean will move into once he makes it into the eastern caribbean.

[EyELeSs1]

this cane looks to be near 80-90 knts now with the clearing eye feature

will be quite interesting to see what recon finds today

[tgenius]

hey windstorm are you jphurricane23 on Master's Blog?

[Meso]

Another view of SSTs

[TampaFl]

I'm getting a feeling the 3+ day track is going to bust.

Agree Blown_Away, It will be intersting once the Noaa G IV plane gets in there this afternoon/evening to sample the atmosphere around the storm. Plus w/the large upper level low east of Florida becoming elongated sw to ne , will that have an impact on the future track? NHC mentions it in their morning discussion:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 160908
TCDAT4
HURRICANE DEAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 12
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042007
500 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2007

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/21. DEAN IS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE...WHICH LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST TO BUILD
WESTWARD DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD. THIS BUILDING RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO PUSH ASIDE A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW CURRENTLY EAST OF
FLORIDA...AND SHOULD THIS HAPPEN THAT SYSTEM WOULD HAVE LITTLE
INTERACTION WITH DEAN. THE PATTERN EVOLUTION SHOULD KEEP DEAN
MOVING QUICKLY WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS
SCENARIO...AND THE MODELS ARE VERY TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A TRACK
THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN SEA TO NEAR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA IN FIVE
DAYS. THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE....AND IS IN BEST AGREEMENT WITH THE VARIOUS
CONSENSUS MODELS.

It sounds like they (NHC) is not sure how this may impact its future track if the ULL does not move wsw over South Florida on Saturday as currently forecasted. Plus Dean is moving faster (24mph) than forecasted. It will be a timing issue to say the least. Thoughts & comments welcomed.

[Windtalker2]

What the models say-Jeff Masters

The latest (00Z or 06Z) model runs from last night and early this morning don't show much change from yesterday's runs. All the models show Dean moving through the Caribbean, passing very near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands on Sunday or Monday, then into the western Caribbean. None of the models show Dean moving northwards into Florida, and I don't see any feature in the steering currents that could potentially lead to a northern excursion by Dean into Puerto Rico, the Bahamas, or the East Coast of Florida. Landfall in the Yucatan are the preferred solutions, followed by an emergence into the Gulf of Mexico, with a second landfall near the Mexico/Texas border. I'd be surprised to see Dean make a turn northwards in the Gulf of Mexico towards Louisiana or points further east, as there are no strong troughs of low pressure coming across the U.S. until late next week.

Tempertures dropping to the upper 50's and low 60's all the way down to Baltimore Md sounds like a strong cold front for this time of year to me.

[windstorm99]

Those SST'S in the eastern are above 2005 levels in some places...

Heat Content-Today



Heat content-August 2005

[HURAKAN]

Such a high OHC could make Dean a Cat. 5 in the WCAR.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Shift in the 12z UKMET would be an intersting problem..

[Derek Ortt]

viewtopic.php?f=29&t=97123

forecast #8

now going with a major hurricane in the GOM

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

Now I am very worried for TX, because of all the
flooding rain they had. Not saying that it will
hit there, but those in TX should be checking
their hurricane kits looking at those latest models...

[swimaway19]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.


Looking at how Dean is developing, I think it may be possible that by the time the islands wake up to greet him tomorrow morning, he may be a strong cat 2 or a weak to moderate cat 3. Please respond and tell me any reasons why this shouldn't happen.

[windstorm99]

I know its 2 diffrerent storms but i remember when all the models had ernesto moving into the GOM and they begin to shift an shift back towards the east in time.

As of now i dont see anything that would cause this but things can change in the comings days.

[Tampa Bay Hurricane]

The islands could be dealing with a category 2 hurricane.

[Bgator]

When is that ULL to the east of Florida supposed to move out, its still there...You can see it on WV.

[Weatherfreak14]

Wow, an eye when i wake up, i pray for the islands and im very intrested what RECON is going to find but i got work asnd i dont have a computer near me.